The Premier League 2026/27: a projection built from the players, club by club

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GoalSoon · built 05 September 2026 · every figure is our own calculation

20 clubs, 591 players currently registered with them, and a projected points total for each — not from what the clubs did last season, but from what the men now in their squads did, wherever in the world they did it. The error is measured and published: ±11 points.

How to read the number

On this page: how it works · how wrong it is · the 20 clubs · where it disagrees with last season · where the minutes were played · club by club

The idea

A club is not the same thing in August that it was in April. Squads turn over, and a projection built on last season’s league table cannot see that. So this one starts a level down: every player registered with the 20 clubs, what he did last season, and where he did it.

The problem with adding players up is that a good season in one division is not a good season in another. We do not assume the gap — we measure it, on 8,628 players who actually moved and so were rated in both divisions in consecutive seasons. Fitting all those moves at once puts every division on one scale. The zero has to sit somewhere and we put it on League One, so every number below reads as “this much above or below a League One season”:

DivisionLevel, in rating zMoves seen
the Premier League+1.461015
La Liga+1.181247
the Bundesliga+1.07918
Serie A+1.031524
Ligue 1+0.831139
the Championship+0.611189
the Belgian Pro League+0.44628
the Eredivisie+0.36731
the Segunda+0.351288
the Primeira Liga+0.35652
the 2. Bundesliga+0.26590
Serie B+0.231120
the Scottish Premiership+0.02408
Ligue 2+0.00662
League One+0.001560
the 3. Liga-0.18270
the HNL-0.21279
League Two-0.271267
the Challenger Pro League-0.27228
the Eerste Divisie-0.36515

The Premier League sits about a point and a half of a standard deviation above League One, the Championship six tenths, League Two a quarter below. A separate term in the same fit carries whatever a player gains or loses simply by changing club, whichever division he lands in (+0.04 on this scale — near enough nothing), so that common effect is not charged to the divisions.

What goes into a club’s number

Five figures per club, each measured within its own division and season so that a Championship squad and a League Two squad are read on the same terms. The weights are fitted, not chosen:

InputWeightWhat it is
attacking end+0.481The attacking end — the six best goal-and-assist rates in the squad, again measured against the division each man played in.
squad quality+0.238Squad quality — the 25 players with the heaviest minutes last season, each scored against his own division and then put on one scale.
ball-winning+0.031Ball-winning — tackles per 90 across the squad, on the same scale.
the club’s own last season+0.010What the club itself did last season, points per game, adjusted for the level it did it at — the only club-level input, and a light one.
minutes from the Championship or above-0.004How much of the squad’s minutes were played in a division rated above League One — the Championship, the Premier League or a foreign division at that level. The threshold is fixed at League One for every page, so the input means the same thing wherever it is used. It is not a bonus for names; a man who played those minutes badly scores badly.

Fitted on 117 club-seasons from the Championship, League One and League Two, 2020/21 to 2025/26.

How wrong it is

Checked by holding out one season at a time and predicting it from the others, so nothing is scored on data it was fitted on:

ApproachError, pts/gameOver 38 games
Give every club the division average0.373 ±14.2
Repeat last season, adjusted for level0.351 ±13.3
This model, from the players0.283 ±10.8

So it is worth about 3 points of accuracy over knowing nothing, and about 3 points over assuming last season repeats. That is a real edge and a small one — on 117 club-seasons it holds against the division average at p < 0.001. One thing that number does not say on its own: this method was carried over from three English divisions and tested on thirteen more before any of them got a page. Seven failed and have none — almost all of them second tiers, where a squad explains far less of a season. This division is one that passed, so read the figure as a division that survived a selection, not as a single test. The whole projected range across the division is 54 points and the error on any one club is ±11, which is why the table below is ordered but not numbered, and why the bands overlap almost everywhere. Anyone who tells you they can rank 20 clubs 1 to 20 in August is not measuring their own error.

The same model run on goals rather than points gives 0.260 of a goal per game of error on goals scored against 0.348 for the division average, and 0.264 against 0.294 on goals conceded. So the attacking half reads off a squad list and the defensive half barely does — a defence is harder to see in a list of players than an attack.

The 20 clubs

ClubProjected ptsBandScored/gameConceded/game SquadNo dataAgeMins from aboveMins from below Last season ptsWhere
Manchester City8171–922.180.9831625.40%5%78the Premier League
Arsenal7968–892.131.03341326.30%0%85the Premier League
Liverpool6352–731.701.30321226.80%0%60the Premier League
Tottenham6252–731.651.26351026.30%1%38the Premier League
Chelsea6252–731.691.26351124.30%9%52the Premier League
Manchester Utd6049–711.711.30401125.10%26%71the Premier League
Brighton5343–641.441.4028826.60%2%53the Premier League
Everton5342–641.411.3324626.20%17%49the Premier League
Brentford5141–621.411.47281125.50%0%53the Premier League
Crystal Palace5140–621.361.4325526.60%9%45the Premier League
Aston Villa5039–611.401.5230827.70%7%65the Premier League
Bournemouth5039–601.371.5224625.20%7%57the Premier League
Newcastle4939–601.391.4727625.40%18%49the Premier League
Nottingham4837–591.301.50361126.00%17%41the Premier League
Fulham4837–591.311.5027628.50%0%52the Premier League
Leeds4737–581.281.4928727.00%0%47the Premier League
Sunderland4635–561.271.6028726.00%16%54the Premier League
Coventry4433–551.271.6723326.60%97%95the Championship
Ipswich3322–440.961.8224326.90%100%84the Championship
Hull2817–380.841.9432827.20%100%73the Championship

▲ upper group   ▼ lower group — grouping is by projection ± half the measured error, not by predicted position. Age is the squad’s average age weighted by the minutes each man played last season, so it describes the side that actually plays rather than the registration list. Mins from above and from below are the shares of last season’s measured minutes played in a division rated higher or lower than this one; the rest were played at this level or in a division we cannot place.

Where it disagrees with last season

The plainest rival to this model is “whatever the club did last season, corrected for the division it did it in” — the second row of the error table above. Here is that number next to ours, club by club. Where the two agree, the squad has not really changed. Where they part, the summer did something the table cannot see:

ClubLast seasonRepeat it, level-adjustedThis model Difference
Tottenham38 pts, the Premier League, 18th3962+23
Ipswich84 pts, the Championship, 2nd5633-23
Coventry95 pts, the Championship, 1st6344-19
Hull73 pts, the Championship, 6th4428-17
Aston Villa65 pts, the Premier League, 4th6550-15
Manchester Utd71 pts, the Premier League, 3rd7160-11
Chelsea52 pts, the Premier League, 10th5262+10
Sunderland54 pts, the Premier League, 7th5446-8
Bournemouth57 pts, the Premier League, 6th5750-7
Arsenal85 pts, the Premier League, 1st8579-6
Nottingham41 pts, the Premier League, 16th4248+6
Crystal Palace45 pts, the Premier League, 15th4551+6
Fulham52 pts, the Premier League, 11th5248-4
Everton49 pts, the Premier League, 13th4953+4
Manchester City78 pts, the Premier League, 2nd7881+3
Brentford53 pts, the Premier League, 9th5351-2
Liverpool60 pts, the Premier League, 5th6263+1
Leeds47 pts, the Premier League, 14th4847-1
Newcastle49 pts, the Premier League, 12th4949+0
Brighton53 pts, the Premier League, 8th5353+0

Sorted by the size of the disagreement. The level adjustment is why a club promoted from League One does not simply keep its 25/26 points total: a point won a division lower is worth less here, and the size of that discount is the measured one from the transfers table above, not a guess.

Where the minutes were played

Every club number on this page is built out of last season’s minutes, so it is worth seeing where those minutes come from. Across the division, the 591 registered players carry 8,143 full games of measured playing time from 2025/26, split like this:

Division those minutes were played inMinutesShare Level, in rating z
the Premier League555,92275.9%+1.46
the Championship139,70719.1%+0.61
the Bundesliga8,4671.2%+1.07
League One8,4441.2%+0.00
Ligue 16,3310.9%+0.83
La Liga4,1670.6%+1.18
Ligue 23,0600.4%+0.00
the Scottish Premiership2,3280.3%+0.02
the Belgian Pro League1,9020.3%+0.44

Only divisions we hold match-level player data for appear here; minutes played outside them are in the “no measured season” count instead, which is 158 of the 591 registered players. Per-club splits are on each club card below.

Club by club

Manchester Cityprojected 81 pts · band 71–92 · 2.18 scored and 0.98 conceded per game · Pep Guardiola
squad age (by minutes) 25.4minutes from above 0%from below 5%last season’s minutes retained 99%

Last season those minutes were played in: the Premier League 95%, the Championship 5%.

We project 81 points (71–92), against a division average of 53. Last season: 78 points in the Premier League, finishing 2nd. What pushes them up: attacking end (+19), squad quality (+9) points. Of the 27 men who played for them last season, 25 are still on the list. 6 of the 31 registered players have no season in our data, so the projection is built on the other 25. Squad value on our player feed: €1404.0m across 27 players — recorded here for context, it is not in the model.

Points, against the division average

Where it comes fromPts
attacking end+19.0
squad quality+9.2
the club’s own last season+0.3
minutes from the Championship or above-0.0
ball-winning+0.0

In since 1 May

  • Elliot Anderson Nottingham · 2026-07-01
  • Kalvin Phillips Sheffield Utd · 2026-05-31
  • Issa Kabore Wrexham · 2026-05-31
  • Emilio Lawrence Luton · 2026-05-31
  • Jaden Heskey Sheffield Wed · 2026-05-31
  • Joel Ndala Sheffield Wed · 2026-05-31
  • Divine Mukasa Leicester · 2026-05-31
  • Lakyle Samuel Bromley · 2026-05-31
  • Jack Grealish Everton · 2026-06-30
  • Manuel Akanji Inter · 2026-06-30
  • Finley Burns Reading · 2026-06-30
  • Divin Mubama Stoke · 2026-06-30

Out since 1 May

  • Bernardo Silva Real Madrid · 2026-07-01
  • Manuel Akanji Inter · 2026-07-01
  • Jahmai Simpson-Pusey FC Koln · 2026-07-01
  • Mathys Detourbet Monaco · 2026-07-02
  • Isaac Smith Barnsley · 2026-07-02
  • Nathan Ake Fenerbahce · 2026-07-03
  • Tomas Galvez G.A. Eagles · 2026-07-07
  • Pierce Charles QPR · 2026-07-10
  • Sverre Nypan Lommel SK · 2026-07-11

The six the model leans on most

PlayerPosWhere in 2025/26DivisionMins AppsGARating pct
Erling HaalandFManchester Citythe Premier League277834257100
Gianluigi DonnarummaGManchester Citythe Premier League2880320077
Matheus NunesMManchester Citythe Premier League2685350579
Ruben DiasDManchester Citythe Premier League1969282094
RodriMManchester Citythe Premier League1513221099
Jeremy DokuMManchester Citythe Premier League1665295498
Arsenalprojected 79 pts · band 68–89 · 2.13 scored and 1.03 conceded per game · Mikel Arteta
squad age (by minutes) 26.3minutes from above 0%from below 0%last season’s minutes retained 100%

Last season those minutes were played in: the Premier League 100%.

We project 79 points (68–89), against a division average of 53. Last season: 85 points in the Premier League, finishing 1st. What pushes them up: attacking end (+16), squad quality (+9) points. Of the 23 men who played for them last season, 22 are still on the list. 13 of the 34 registered players have no season in our data, so the projection is built on the other 21. Squad value on our player feed: €1188.0m across 24 players — recorded here for context, it is not in the model.

Points, against the division average

Where it comes fromPts
attacking end+16.3
squad quality+8.7
the club’s own last season+0.4
ball-winning+0.3
minutes from the Championship or above-0.0

In since 1 May

  • Piero Hincapie Bayer Leverkusen · 2026-07-01
  • Ismeal Kabia Shrewsbury · 2026-05-31
  • Louie Copley Crawley · 2026-05-31
  • Jakub Kiwior FC Porto · 2026-06-30
  • Fabio Vieira Hamburger SV · 2026-06-30
  • Karl Hein Werder Bremen · 2026-06-30
  • Ethan Nwaneri Marseille · 2026-06-30
  • Reiss Nelson Brentford · 2026-06-30
  • Charles Sagoe Jr Kalmar · 2026-12-31

Out since 1 May

  • Jakub Kiwior FC Porto · 2026-07-01
  • Karl Hein Werder Bremen · 2026-07-01
  • Leandro Trossard Besiktas · 2026-07-14
  • Piero Hincapie Bayer Leverkusen · 2026-06-30

The six the model leans on most

PlayerPosWhere in 2025/26DivisionMins AppsGARating pct
Declan RiceMArsenalthe Premier League2754332598
GabrielDArsenalthe Premier League2481292499
Martin ZubimendiMArsenalthe Premier League2673345187
Bukayo SakaMArsenalthe Premier League1956287496
William SalibaDArsenalthe Premier League2300271090
Jurrien TimberDArsenalthe Premier League2168263582
Liverpoolprojected 63 pts · band 52–73 · 1.70 scored and 1.30 conceded per game · Arne Slot
squad age (by minutes) 26.8minutes from above 0%from below 0%last season’s minutes retained 100%

Last season those minutes were played in: the Premier League 100%.

We project 63 points (52–73), against a division average of 53. Last season: 60 points in the Premier League, finishing 5th. What pushes them up: attacking end (+7), squad quality (+3) points. Of the 23 men who played for them last season, 22 are still on the list. 12 of the 32 registered players have no season in our data, so the projection is built on the other 20. Squad value on our player feed: €948.6m across 26 players — recorded here for context, it is not in the model.

Points, against the division average

Where it comes fromPts
attacking end+6.9
squad quality+3.1
ball-winning-0.4
the club’s own last season+0.1
minutes from the Championship or above-0.0

In since 1 May

  • Victor Munoz Osasuna · 2026-07-01
  • Jeremy Jacquet Rennes · 2026-07-01
  • Owen Beck Derby · 2026-05-31
  • Luke Chambers Charlton · 2026-05-31
  • Harvey Davies Crawley · 2026-05-31
  • Luca Stephenson Dundee Utd · 2026-05-31
  • Lewis Koumas Hull · 2026-05-31
  • James Balagizi Forest Green · 2026-05-31
  • Vitezslav Jaros Ajax · 2026-06-30
  • Harvey Elliott Aston Villa · 2026-06-30
  • Konstantinos Tsimikas AS Roma · 2026-06-30
  • Fabian Mrozek FC Cincinnati · 2026-12-31

Out since 1 May

  • Andrew Robertson Tottenham · 2026-07-01
  • Ibrahima Konate Real Madrid · 2026-07-01
  • Luca Stephenson Bolton · 2026-07-02
  • Calum Scanlon Cardiff · 2026-08-15

The six the model leans on most

PlayerPosWhere in 2025/26DivisionMins AppsGARating pct
Virgil van DijkDLiverpoolthe Premier League2970336099
Dominik SzoboszlaiMLiverpoolthe Premier League2790316690
Ibrahima KonateDLiverpoolthe Premier League2701321091
Ryan GravenberchMLiverpoolthe Premier League2664325386
Cody GakpoMLiverpoolthe Premier League2468326577
Hugo EkitikeFLiverpoolthe Premier League1579259493
Tottenhamprojected 62 pts · band 52–73 · 1.65 scored and 1.26 conceded per game · Roberto De Zerbi
squad age (by minutes) 26.3minutes from above 0%from below 1%last season’s minutes retained 81%

Last season those minutes were played in: the Premier League 99%.

We project 62 points (52–73), against a division average of 53. Last season: 38 points in the Premier League, finishing 18th. What pushes them up: attacking end (+9) points. Of the 27 men who played for them last season, 20 are still on the list. 10 of the 35 registered players have no season in our data, so the projection is built on the other 25. Squad value on our player feed: €850.8m across 33 players — recorded here for context, it is not in the model.

Points, against the division average

Where it comes fromPts
attacking end+9.0
squad quality+0.5
ball-winning+0.3
the club’s own last season-0.2
minutes from the Championship or above-0.0

In since 1 May

  • Paul van Hecke Jan Brighton · 2026-06-30
  • Marcos Senesi Bournemouth · 2026-06-30
  • Andrew Robertson Liverpool · 2026-06-30
  • Martin Dubravka Burnley · 2026-06-30
  • Mateus Fernandes West Ham · 2026-07-01
  • Sandro Tonali Newcastle · 2026-07-05
  • Mikey Moore Rangers · 2026-05-30
  • Alfie Devine Preston · 2026-05-31
  • George Abbott Mansfield · 2026-05-31
  • Ashley Phillips Stoke · 2026-05-31
  • Will Lankshear Oxford Utd · 2026-05-31
  • Tyrese Hall Notts Co · 2026-05-31

Out since 1 May

  • Leon Myrtaj Debrecen · 2026-06-29
  • Pele Arganese-McDermott Crawley · 2026-06-29
  • Alejo Veliz Bahia · 2026-06-29
  • Matthew Craig Port Vale · 2026-06-29
  • Yves Bissouma no club recorded · 2026-06-29
  • Alfie Devine Preston · 2026-07-05
  • Radu Dragusin Fiorentina · 2026-07-07
  • Yusuf Akhamrich Leyton Orient · 2026-07-10
  • Luka Vuskovic Brighton · 2026-07-12
  • Mason Melia Lincoln · 2026-08-05
  • James Wilson Hearts · 2026-05-30
  • Randal Kolo Muani PSG · 2026-05-30

The six the model leans on most

PlayerPosWhere in 2025/26DivisionMins AppsGARating pct
Marcos SenesiDBournemouththe Premier League3020340498
Paul van Hecke JanDBrightonthe Premier League2851323398
Mateus FernandesMWest Hamthe Premier League2934353493
Martin DubravkaGBurnleythe Premier League2790340072
Sandro TonaliMNewcastlethe Premier League2514340276
Gabriel Romero CristianDTottenhamthe Premier League1692214195
Chelseaprojected 62 pts · band 52–73 · 1.69 scored and 1.26 conceded per game · Calum McFarlane
squad age (by minutes) 24.3minutes from above 0%from below 9%last season’s minutes retained 99%

Last season those minutes were played in: the Premier League 91%, League One 5%, Ligue 1 4%.

We project 62 points (52–73), against a division average of 53. Last season: 52 points in the Premier League, finishing 10th. What pushes them up: attacking end (+8), squad quality (+1) points. Of the 27 men who played for them last season, 25 are still on the list. 11 of the 35 registered players have no season in our data, so the projection is built on the other 24. Squad value on our player feed: €1028.1m across 26 players — recorded here for context, it is not in the model.

Points, against the division average

Where it comes fromPts
attacking end+8.1
squad quality+1.1
ball-winning+0.2
minutes from the Championship or above+0.1
the club’s own last season-0.1

In since 1 May

  • Emmanuel Emegha Strasbourg · 2026-07-01
  • Geovany Quenda Sporting CP · 2026-07-01
  • Ted Curd Boreham Wood · 2026-05-31
  • Ishe Samuels-Smith Swansea · 2026-05-31
  • Tyrique George Everton · 2026-05-31
  • Axel Disasi West Ham · 2026-06-30
  • Nicolas Jackson Bayern Munich · 2026-06-30
  • Omari Kellyman Cardiff · 2026-06-30
  • Mike Penders Strasbourg · 2026-06-30
  • Caleb Wiley Watford · 2026-06-30
  • Dastan Satpaev Burnley · 2027-05-31
  • Ryan Kavuma McQueen Portsmouth · 2027-05-31

Out since 1 May

  • Marc Cucurella Real Madrid · 2026-07-01
  • Tyrique George Everton · 2026-07-06
  • Santos Andrey Manchester Utd · 2026-07-13
  • Dastan Satpaev Burnley · 2026-08-14
  • Ryan Kavuma McQueen Portsmouth · 2026-08-14

The six the model leans on most

PlayerPosWhere in 2025/26DivisionMins AppsGARating pct
Pedro JoaoFChelseathe Premier League23453115598
Enzo FernandezMChelseathe Premier League2772329490
Moises CaicedoMChelseathe Premier League2532313192
Trevoh ChalobahDChelseathe Premier League2459313086
Cole PalmerFChelseathe Premier League1817259194
Pedro NetoMChelseathe Premier League2299305479
Manchester Utdprojected 60 pts · band 49–71 · 1.71 scored and 1.30 conceded per game · Michael Carrick
squad age (by minutes) 25.1minutes from above 0%from below 26%last season’s minutes retained 90%

Last season those minutes were played in: the Premier League 74%, the Championship 12%, League One 9%, the Scottish Premiership 4%.

We project 60 points (49–71), against a division average of 53. Last season: 71 points in the Premier League, finishing 3rd. What pushes them up: attacking end (+6) points. Of the 21 men who played for them last season, 18 are still on the list. 11 of the 40 registered players have no season in our data, so the projection is built on the other 29. Squad value on our player feed: €841.2m across 33 players — recorded here for context, it is not in the model.

Points, against the division average

Where it comes fromPts
attacking end+6.0
ball-winning+0.4
the club’s own last season+0.2
minutes from the Championship or above+0.2
squad quality+0.1

In since 1 May

  • Santos Andrey Chelsea · 2026-07-12
  • Youri Tielemans Aston Villa · 2026-07-13
  • Karl Darlow Leeds · 2026-07-13
  • Daniel Gore Rotherham · 2026-05-03
  • Jacob Devaney St. Mirren · 2026-05-30
  • James Scanlon Swindon · 2026-05-30
  • Ethan Wheatley Bradford City · 2026-05-30
  • Ethan Williams Falkirk · 2026-05-30
  • Jadon Sancho Aston Villa · 2026-05-31
  • Enzo Kana-Biyik Lausanne · 2026-06-29
  • Sekou Kone Lausanne · 2026-06-29
  • Harry Amass Norwich · 2026-06-29

Out since 1 May

  • Rasmus Hojlund Napoli · 2026-06-29
  • Jadon Sancho no club recorded · 2026-06-29
  • Tyrell Malacia no club recorded · 2026-06-29
  • Andre Onana Trabzonspor · 2026-07-02
  • Casemiro Inter Miami · 2026-07-20

The six the model leans on most

PlayerPosWhere in 2025/26DivisionMins AppsGARating pct
Bruno FernandesMManchester Utdthe Premier League262130920100
Matheus CunhaFManchester Utdthe Premier League2063299298
Amad DialloFManchester Utdthe Premier League2122282292
Karl DarlowGLeedsthe Premier League1710340095
Youri TielemansMAston Villathe Premier League1772240393
Senne LammensGManchester Utdthe Premier League2610310069
Brightonprojected 53 pts · band 43–64 · 1.44 scored and 1.40 conceded per game · Fabian Hurzeler
squad age (by minutes) 26.6minutes from above 0%from below 2%last season’s minutes retained 97%

Last season those minutes were played in: the Premier League 98%.

We project 53 points (43–64), against a division average of 53. Last season: 53 points in the Premier League, finishing 8th. What pushes them up: squad quality (+1), ball-winning (+1) points. What pulls them down: attacking end (-1) points. Of the 26 men who played for them last season, 22 are still on the list. 8 of the 28 registered players have no season in our data, so the projection is built on the other 20. Squad value on our player feed: €438.7m across 25 players — recorded here for context, it is not in the model.

Points, against the division average

Where it comes fromPts
attacking end-0.9
squad quality+0.9
ball-winning+0.6
the club’s own last season-0.0
minutes from the Championship or above-0.0

In since 1 May

  • Eiran Cashin Blackburn · 2026-05-31
  • Amario Cozier-Duberry Bolton · 2026-05-31
  • Ibrahim Osman Birmingham · 2026-05-31
  • Jacob Slater Harrogate · 2026-05-31
  • Malick Yalcouye Swansea · 2026-05-31
  • Tom Watson Millwall · 2026-05-31
  • Jeremy Sarmiento Middlesbrough · 2026-06-30
  • Carl Rushworth Coventry · 2026-06-30
  • Facundo Buonanotte Leeds · 2026-06-30
  • Diego Coppola Paris FC · 2026-06-30
  • Evan Ferguson AS Roma · 2026-06-30
  • Mark O&apos;Mahony Reading · 2026-06-30

Out since 1 May

  • Jeremy Sarmiento Middlesbrough · 2026-07-01
  • Paul van Hecke Jan Tottenham · 2026-07-01
  • Jacob Slater Tranmere · 2026-07-01
  • Do-Young Yoon Magdeburg · 2026-07-05
  • Diego Coppola Paris FC · 2026-07-16
  • Nils Ramming Rochdale · 2026-07-17

The six the model leans on most

PlayerPosWhere in 2025/26DivisionMins AppsGARating pct
Paul van Hecke JanDBrightonthe Premier League2851323398
Bart VerbruggenGBrightonthe Premier League3060340082
Lewis DunkDBrightonthe Premier League2484301085
Ferdi KadiogluDBrightonthe Premier League2774341055
Pascal GrossMBrightonthe Premier League1617181388
Yankuba MintehMBrightonthe Premier League2128333370
Evertonprojected 53 pts · band 42–64 · 1.41 scored and 1.33 conceded per game · Leighton Baines
squad age (by minutes) 26.2minutes from above 0%from below 17%last season’s minutes retained 83%

Last season those minutes were played in: the Premier League 83%, the Championship 13%, League One 4%.

We project 53 points (42–64), against a division average of 53. Last season: 49 points in the Premier League, finishing 13th. What pushes them up: squad quality (+3) points. What pulls them down: attacking end (-4) points. Of the 22 men who played for them last season, 18 are still on the list. 6 of the 24 registered players have no season in our data, so the projection is built on the other 18. Squad value on our player feed: €558.3m across 28 players — recorded here for context, it is not in the model.

Points, against the division average

Where it comes fromPts
attacking end-3.8
squad quality+3.3
ball-winning+0.4
the club’s own last season-0.1
minutes from the Championship or above+0.0

In since 1 May

  • Merlin Rohl Freiburg · 2026-06-30
  • Hayden Hackney Middlesbrough · 2026-06-30
  • Tyrique George Chelsea · 2026-07-05
  • George Finney Ayr · 2026-05-30
  • Roman Dixon Stockport County · 2026-05-30
  • Martin Sherif Port Vale · 2026-05-30
  • Isaac Heath Accrington · 2026-05-30
  • Tyler Onyango Stockport County · 2026-05-30
  • George Morgan Cannes · 2026-06-29
  • Jack Patterson LKS Lodz · 2026-06-29
  • Francis Okoronkwo Doncaster · 2026-06-29
  • Elijah Campbell Port Vale · 2026-06-29

Out since 1 May

  • Coby Ebere Cukaricki · 2026-06-29
  • Isaac Heath Cambridge Utd · 2026-06-29
  • Francis Okoronkwo Doncaster · 2026-06-29
  • Tyler Onyango no club recorded · 2026-06-29
  • Michael Keane no club recorded · 2026-06-29
  • Idrissa Gueye no club recorded · 2026-06-29
  • Seamus Coleman no club recorded · 2026-06-29
  • Ademide Akarakiri Cagliari · 2026-07-01
  • Tyrique George Chelsea · 2026-05-30
  • Merlin Rohl Freiburg · 2026-06-29
  • Jack Grealish Manchester City · 2026-06-29

The six the model leans on most

PlayerPosWhere in 2025/26DivisionMins AppsGARating pct
James GarnerMEvertonthe Premier League3060342796
James TarkowskiDEvertonthe Premier League2970332396
Hayden HackneyMMiddlesbroughthe Championship3224375799
Jordan PickfordGEvertonthe Premier League3060340085
Kiernan Dewsbury-HallMEvertonthe Premier League2394278494
Iliman NdiayeMEvertonthe Premier League2426286364
Brentfordprojected 51 pts · band 41–62 · 1.41 scored and 1.47 conceded per game · Keith Andrews
squad age (by minutes) 25.5minutes from above 0%from below 0%last season’s minutes retained 100%

Last season those minutes were played in: the Premier League 100%.

We project 51 points (41–62), against a division average of 53. Last season: 53 points in the Premier League, finishing 9th. What pulls them down: attacking end (-1), squad quality (-1) points. Of the 23 men who played for them last season, 20 are still on the list. 11 of the 28 registered players have no season in our data, so the projection is built on the other 17. Squad value on our player feed: €458.0m across 20 players — recorded here for context, it is not in the model.

Points, against the division average

Where it comes fromPts
attacking end-0.7
squad quality-0.7
the club’s own last season-0.0
minutes from the Championship or above-0.0
ball-winning+0.0

In since 1 May

  • Iwan Morgan Shrewsbury · 2026-05-02
  • Ethan Brierley Exeter · 2026-05-31
  • Matthew Cox Shrewsbury · 2026-05-31
  • Jayden Meghoma Rangers · 2026-05-31
  • Ryan Trevitt Wigan · 2026-05-31
  • Emre Konak Yunus Oxford Utd · 2026-05-31
  • Frank Onyeka Coventry · 2026-06-30
  • Tony Yogane Dundee FC · 2026-06-30
  • Ji-Soo Kim Kaiserslautern · 2026-06-30
  • Benjamin Fredrick Dender · 2026-06-30
  • Romelle Donovan Sheffield Utd · 2027-05-31
  • Michael Olakigbe Tirol · 2027-06-30

Out since 1 May

  • Frank Onyeka Coventry · 2026-07-01
  • Ethan Brierley Huddersfield · 2026-07-01
  • Michael Olakigbe Tirol · 2026-07-01
  • Tony Yogane Aberdeen · 2026-07-01
  • Romelle Donovan Sheffield Utd · 2026-07-08
  • Benjamin Arthur Portsmouth · 2026-08-12
  • Reiss Nelson Arsenal · 2026-06-30

The six the model leans on most

PlayerPosWhere in 2025/26DivisionMins AppsGARating pct
Igor ThiagoFBrentfordthe Premier League29253417188
Caoimhin KelleherGBrentfordthe Premier League2970330074
Michael KayodeDBrentfordthe Premier League2904330169
Mikkel DamsgaardMBrentfordthe Premier League1846324386
Dango OuattaraFBrentfordthe Premier League2030296279
Mathias JensenMBrentfordthe Premier League2098342176
Crystal Palaceprojected 51 pts · band 40–62 · 1.36 scored and 1.43 conceded per game · Pierre Sage
squad age (by minutes) 26.6minutes from above 0%from below 9%last season’s minutes retained 92%

Last season those minutes were played in: the Premier League 91%, La Liga 6%.

We project 51 points (40–62), against a division average of 53. Last season: 45 points in the Premier League, finishing 15th. What pushes them up: ball-winning (+1) points. What pulls them down: attacking end (-2) points. Of the 28 men who played for them last season, 21 are still on the list. 5 of the 25 registered players have no season in our data, so the projection is built on the other 20. Squad value on our player feed: €541.2m across 28 players — recorded here for context, it is not in the model.

Points, against the division average

Where it comes fromPts
attacking end-2.4
ball-winning+0.7
squad quality-0.2
the club’s own last season-0.2
minutes from the Championship or above-0.0

In since 1 May

  • Oscar Mingueza Celta Vigo · 2026-07-08
  • Romain Esse Coventry · 2026-05-30
  • Tayo Adaramola Sheffield Wed · 2026-05-30
  • David Ozoh Derby · 2026-05-30
  • Daniel Imray West Brom · 2026-05-30
  • Joe Whitworth Exeter · 2026-05-30
  • Jesuran Rak-Sakyi Stoke · 2026-05-30
  • Franca Matheus Vasco · 2026-06-29
  • Owen Goodman Barnsley · 2026-06-29
  • Rio Cardines Bristol City · 2027-05-31

Out since 1 May

  • Kaden Rodney no club recorded · 2026-06-29
  • Craig Farquhar Barnet · 2026-06-29
  • Rio Cardines Bristol City · 2026-08-11
  • Christantus Uche Getafe · 2026-06-29
  • Evann Guessand Aston Villa · 2026-06-29

The six the model leans on most

PlayerPosWhere in 2025/26DivisionMins AppsGARating pct
Adam WhartonMCrystal Palacethe Premier League2321311588
Chris RichardsDCrystal Palacethe Premier League2556311074
Daniel MunozDCrystal Palacethe Premier League2134264383
Maxence LacroixDCrystal Palacethe Premier League2817331264
Yeremy PinoFCrystal Palacethe Premier League1967342285
Dean HendersonGCrystal Palacethe Premier League3060340054
Aston Villaprojected 50 pts · band 39–61 · 1.40 scored and 1.52 conceded per game · Unai Emery
squad age (by minutes) 27.7minutes from above 0%from below 7%last season’s minutes retained 85%

Last season those minutes were played in: the Premier League 93%, the Bundesliga 6%.

We project 50 points (39–61), against a division average of 53. Last season: 65 points in the Premier League, finishing 4th. What pulls them down: attacking end (-3) points. Of the 26 men who played for them last season, 19 are still on the list. 8 of the 30 registered players have no season in our data, so the projection is built on the other 22. Squad value on our player feed: €591.8m across 29 players — recorded here for context, it is not in the model.

Points, against the division average

Where it comes fromPts
attacking end-2.7
squad quality-0.2
the club’s own last season+0.1
minutes from the Championship or above-0.0
ball-winning+0.0

In since 1 May

  • Modou Cisse LASK · 2026-06-30
  • Johan Manzambi Freiburg · 2026-07-16
  • Gomes Joao Wolves · 2026-07-19
  • Lewis Dobbin Preston · 2026-05-31
  • Louie Barry Stockport County · 2026-05-31
  • Joe Gauci Port Vale · 2026-05-31
  • Sil Swinkels Chesterfield · 2026-05-31
  • Lino Sousa Rotherham · 2026-05-31
  • Tommi O&apos;Reilly Crewe · 2026-05-31
  • Aidan Borland Swindon · 2026-05-31
  • Ewan Simpson Hamilton · 2026-06-29
  • Ben Broggio Falkirk · 2026-06-29

Out since 1 May

  • Ewan Simpson Airdrieonians · 2026-06-29
  • Thierry Katsukunya no club recorded · 2026-06-29
  • Enzo Barrenechea Benfica · 2026-06-29
  • Sil Swinkels Sheffield Wed · 2026-06-30
  • Donyell Malen AS Roma · 2026-07-01
  • Kadan Young Annecy · 2026-07-07
  • Louie Barry Sheffield Wed · 2026-07-07
  • Youri Tielemans Manchester Utd · 2026-07-12
  • Lewis Dobbin Southampton · 2026-07-13
  • Jesus Mosquera Yeimar Vitoria Guimaraes · 2026-07-14
  • Oliwier Zych Vitoria Guimaraes · 2026-07-14
  • Mohamed Kone Annecy · 2026-07-15

The six the model leans on most

PlayerPosWhere in 2025/26DivisionMins AppsGARating pct
Morgan RogersFAston Villathe Premier League3015349583
Ollie WatkinsFAston Villathe Premier League26543415387
Ezri KonsaDAston Villathe Premier League2766330085
Johan ManzambiMFreiburgthe Bundesliga2094285496
Emiliano MartinezGAston Villathe Premier League2565290164
Matty CashDAston Villathe Premier League2751322253
Bournemouthprojected 50 pts · band 39–60 · 1.37 scored and 1.52 conceded per game
squad age (by minutes) 25.2minutes from above 0%from below 7%last season’s minutes retained 80%

Last season those minutes were played in: the Premier League 93%, La Liga 7%.

We project 50 points (39–60), against a division average of 53. Last season: 57 points in the Premier League, finishing 6th. What pulls them down: attacking end (-2), squad quality (-1) points. Of the 23 men who played for them last season, 18 are still on the list. 6 of the 24 registered players have no season in our data, so the projection is built on the other 18. Squad value on our player feed: €483.4m across 23 players — recorded here for context, it is not in the model.

Points, against the division average

Where it comes fromPts
attacking end-2.1
squad quality-1.4
ball-winning+0.1
minutes from the Championship or above-0.0
the club’s own last season+0.0

In since 1 May

  • Alejandro Jimenez AC Milan · 2026-06-30
  • Alvaro Rodriguez Elche · 2026-07-13
  • Ben Winterburn Barnet · 2026-05-30
  • Ashley Clarke AFC Totton · 2026-05-30
  • Maxwell Kinsey Truro · 2026-05-30
  • William Dennis Leyton Orient · 2026-05-30
  • Ethan Sills Wimborne · 2026-06-29
  • Daniel Jebbison Preston · 2026-06-29
  • Alex Paulsen Lechia Gdansk · 2026-06-29
  • Julian Araujo Celtic · 2026-06-29
  • Romain Faivre Auxerre · 2026-06-29
  • Junior Traore Hamed Marseille · 2026-06-29

Out since 1 May

  • Michael Dacosta Gonzalez Moreirense · 2026-06-29
  • Noa Boutin Inverness · 2026-06-29
  • Junior Traore Hamed Marseille · 2026-06-29
  • Luis Sinisterra Cruzeiro · 2026-06-29
  • Marcos Senesi Tottenham · 2026-06-29
  • Alex Paulsen Motherwell · 2026-07-12
  • Alejandro Jimenez AC Milan · 2026-06-29
  • Christos Mandas Lazio · 2026-06-29

The six the model leans on most

PlayerPosWhere in 2025/26DivisionMins AppsGARating pct
Alex ScottMBournemouththe Premier League2675343189
Alvaro RodriguezFElcheLa Liga2200377590
Adrien TruffertDBournemouththe Premier League3110351559
James HillDBournemouththe Premier League2030320384
Marcus TavernierMBournemouththe Premier League2529316461
Djordje PetrovicGBournemouththe Premier League3150350046
Newcastleprojected 49 pts · band 39–60 · 1.39 scored and 1.47 conceded per game · Eddie Howe
squad age (by minutes) 25.4minutes from above 0%from below 18%last season’s minutes retained 81%

Last season those minutes were played in: the Premier League 82%, Ligue 2 8%, the Bundesliga 6%, the Eredivisie 3%.

We project 49 points (39–60), against a division average of 53. Last season: 49 points in the Premier League, finishing 12th. What pulls them down: squad quality (-3), attacking end (-1) points. Of the 25 men who played for them last season, 19 are still on the list. 6 of the 27 registered players have no season in our data, so the projection is built on the other 21. Squad value on our player feed: €622.9m across 27 players — recorded here for context, it is not in the model.

Points, against the division average

Where it comes fromPts
squad quality-2.8
attacking end-0.6
minutes from the Championship or above+0.1
the club’s own last season-0.1
ball-winning-0.0

In since 1 May

  • Ewen Jaouen Reims · 2026-06-30
  • Bazoumana Toure Hoffenheim · 2026-07-04
  • Sean Steur Ajax · 2026-07-08
  • Aladji Bamba Monaco · 2026-07-24
  • Charlie McArthur Airdrieonians · 2026-05-30
  • Max Thompson Ayr · 2026-05-30
  • Joe White Bradford City · 2026-05-30
  • Harrison Ashby Bradford City · 2026-05-30
  • Antonio Cordero Cadiz CF · 2026-06-29
  • Trevan Sanusi Lorient · 2026-06-29
  • Travis Hernes Groningen · 2026-06-29
  • Matt Targett Middlesbrough · 2026-06-29

Out since 1 May

  • Travis Hernes Groningen · 2026-06-29
  • Charlie McArthur York City · 2026-06-29
  • Anthony Gordon Barcelona · 2026-06-29
  • Matt Targett no club recorded · 2026-06-29
  • Emil Krafth no club recorded · 2026-06-29
  • Kieran Trippier Wolves · 2026-06-29
  • John Ruddy no club recorded · 2026-06-29
  • Sandro Tonali Tottenham · 2026-07-04
  • Harrison Ashby Luton · 2026-07-08

The six the model leans on most

PlayerPosWhere in 2025/26DivisionMins AppsGARating pct
Guimaraes BrunoMNewcastlethe Premier League23652985100
Malick ThiawDNewcastlethe Premier League2874374088
Sven BotmanDNewcastlethe Premier League1777291191
Bazoumana ToureFHoffenheimthe Bundesliga2325335986
Lewis HallDNewcastlethe Premier League2179341173
JoelintonFNewcastlethe Premier League1863292178
Nottinghamprojected 48 pts · band 37–59 · 1.30 scored and 1.50 conceded per game
squad age (by minutes) 26.0minutes from above 0%from below 17%last season’s minutes retained 88%

Last season those minutes were played in: the Premier League 83%, the Bundesliga 7%, the Championship 6%.

We project 48 points (37–59), against a division average of 53. Last season: 41 points in the Premier League, finishing 16th. What pulls them down: attacking end (-3), squad quality (-2) points. Of the 29 men who played for them last season, 22 are still on the list. 11 of the 36 registered players have no season in our data, so the projection is built on the other 25. Squad value on our player feed: €515.7m across 29 players — recorded here for context, it is not in the model.

Points, against the division average

Where it comes fromPts
attacking end-2.8
squad quality-1.8
the club’s own last season-0.2
ball-winning-0.0
minutes from the Championship or above+0.0

In since 1 May

  • Cherif Yaya Hereford · 2026-05-30
  • Cormac Daly Hereford · 2026-05-30
  • Jack Thompson Barrow · 2026-05-30
  • Tyler Bindon Sheffield Utd · 2026-06-29
  • Joe Gardner Mansfield · 2026-06-29
  • Josh Powell Fleetwood · 2026-06-29
  • Ben Hammond Northampton · 2026-06-29
  • Esapa Osong Detlef Fleetwood · 2026-06-29
  • Silva Jota Besiktas · 2026-06-29
  • Arnaud Kalimuendo Eintracht Frankfurt · 2026-06-29
  • David Carmo Oviedo · 2026-06-29
  • Omar Richards Rio Ave · 2026-06-29

Out since 1 May

  • Cormac Daly Hearts · 2026-06-29
  • Elliot Anderson Manchester City · 2026-06-29
  • David Carmo Olympiacos Piraeus · 2026-06-29
  • Angus Gunn San Jose Earthquakes · 2026-06-29
  • Willy Boly no club recorded · 2026-06-29
  • Stefan Ortega no club recorded · 2026-06-29
  • Silva Jota Olympiacos Piraeus · 2026-07-08
  • Danni Anisjko Chesterfield · 2026-07-15
  • Joe Gardner Falkirk · 2026-07-28
  • Lorenzo Lucca Napoli · 2026-06-29

The six the model leans on most

PlayerPosWhere in 2025/26DivisionMins AppsGARating pct
Morgan Gibbs-WhiteFNottinghamthe Premier League27123213390
Nikola MilenkovicDNottinghamthe Premier League2925330066
Neco WilliamsMNottinghamthe Premier League2756322268
Callum Hudson-OdoiFNottinghamthe Premier League1675263491
Ibrahim SangareMNottinghamthe Premier League1900272282
MurilloDNottinghamthe Premier League1773220079
Fulhamprojected 48 pts · band 37–59 · 1.31 scored and 1.50 conceded per game · Marco Silva
squad age (by minutes) 28.5minutes from above 0%from below 0%last season’s minutes retained 99%

Last season those minutes were played in: the Premier League 100%.

We project 48 points (37–59), against a division average of 53. Last season: 52 points in the Premier League, finishing 11th. What pulls them down: attacking end (-5), squad quality (-1) points. Of the 23 men who played for them last season, 22 are still on the list. 6 of the 27 registered players have no season in our data, so the projection is built on the other 21. Squad value on our player feed: €379.1m across 22 players — recorded here for context, it is not in the model.

Points, against the division average

Where it comes fromPts
attacking end-4.5
squad quality-0.9
ball-winning+0.5
the club’s own last season-0.1
minutes from the Championship or above-0.0

In since 1 May

  • Harvey Araujo Colchester · 2026-05-31
  • Luke Harris Wycombe · 2026-05-31
  • Oliver Sanderson Woking · 2026-05-31
  • Aaron Loupalo-Bi Walsall · 2026-05-31
  • Chibuzo Nwoko Forest Green · 2026-05-31
  • Luc De Fougerolles Dender · 2026-06-30
  • Matthew Dibley-Dias Braintree · 2026-06-30
  • Steven Benda Feyenoord · 2026-06-30

Out since 1 May

  • Raul Jimenez Wolves · 2026-07-01
  • Oliver Sanderson Stevenage · 2026-07-01
  • Samuel Chukwueze AC Milan · 2026-06-30

The six the model leans on most

PlayerPosWhere in 2025/26DivisionMins AppsGARating pct
Harry WilsonFFulhamthe Premier League2602359595
Joachim AndersenDFulhamthe Premier League2794330189
Alex IwobiMFulhamthe Premier League2266274389
Sander BergeMFulhamthe Premier League2731350163
Calvin BasseyDFulhamthe Premier League2364300068
Kenny TeteDFulhamthe Premier League1623261086
Leedsprojected 47 pts · band 37–58 · 1.28 scored and 1.49 conceded per game · Daniel Farke
squad age (by minutes) 27.0minutes from above 0%from below 0%last season’s minutes retained 99%

Last season those minutes were played in: the Premier League 100%.

We project 47 points (37–58), against a division average of 53. Last season: 47 points in the Premier League, finishing 14th. What pulls them down: attacking end (-6) points. Of the 24 men who played for them last season, 23 are still on the list. 7 of the 28 registered players have no season in our data, so the projection is built on the other 21. Squad value on our player feed: €361.8m across 27 players — recorded here for context, it is not in the model.

Points, against the division average

Where it comes fromPts
attacking end-5.9
ball-winning+0.4
the club’s own last season-0.1
squad quality+0.1
minutes from the Championship or above-0.0

In since 1 May

  • Reece Chadwick-Chaplin Leeds · 2026-05-09
  • Harry Gray Rotherham · 2026-05-31
  • Maximilian Wober Werder Bremen · 2026-06-30
  • Jack Harrison Fiorentina · 2026-06-30
  • Largie Ramazani Valencia · 2026-06-30
  • Joe Gelhardt Hull · 2026-06-30
  • Mateo Joseph Mallorca · 2026-06-30
  • Isaac Schmidt Werder Bremen · 2026-06-30

Out since 1 May

  • Karl Darlow Manchester Utd · 2026-07-14
  • Isaac Schmidt Young Boys · 2026-07-16
  • Facundo Buonanotte Brighton · 2026-06-30

The six the model leans on most

PlayerPosWhere in 2025/26DivisionMins AppsGARating pct
Ethan AmpaduMLeedsthe Premier League2853321192
Anton StachMLeedsthe Premier League2136275294
Dominic Calvert-LewinFLeedsthe Premier League24573214180
Karl DarlowGLeedsthe Premier League1710340095
Brenden AaronsonFLeedsthe Premier League2234354573
Pascal StruijkDLeedsthe Premier League2667330158
Sunderlandprojected 46 pts · band 35–56 · 1.27 scored and 1.60 conceded per game · Regis Le Bris
squad age (by minutes) 26.0minutes from above 0%from below 16%last season’s minutes retained 90%

Last season those minutes were played in: the Premier League 84%, Ligue 1 8%, the Belgian Pro League 5%.

We project 46 points (35–56), against a division average of 53. Last season: 54 points in the Premier League, finishing 7th. What pulls them down: attacking end (-4), squad quality (-2), ball-winning (-1) points. Of the 26 men who played for them last season, 18 are still on the list. 7 of the 28 registered players have no season in our data, so the projection is built on the other 21. Squad value on our player feed: €401.2m across 25 players — recorded here for context, it is not in the model.

Points, against the division average

Where it comes fromPts
attacking end-4.4
squad quality-2.2
ball-winning-0.7
minutes from the Championship or above-0.0
the club’s own last season-0.0

In since 1 May

  • Thomas Meunier Lille · 2026-07-14
  • Matthew Young Salford · 2026-05-30
  • Trey Samuel-Ogunsuyi Shrewsbury · 2026-05-30
  • Oliver Bainbridge South Shields · 2026-05-30
  • Alan Browne Middlesbrough · 2026-05-31
  • Zak Johnson York City · 2026-05-31
  • Fuhr Hjelde Leo Sheffield Utd · 2026-05-31
  • Timur Tuterov Exeter · 2026-06-29
  • Luis Semedo Moreirense · 2026-06-29
  • Jenson Seelt Wolfsburg · 2026-06-29
  • Simon Adingra Monaco · 2026-06-29
  • Niall Huggins Wycombe · 2026-06-29

Out since 1 May

  • Harrison Jones Peterborough · 2026-06-29
  • Zak Johnson York City · 2026-06-29
  • Niall Huggins no club recorded · 2026-06-29
  • Dennis Cirkin no club recorded · 2026-06-29
  • Daniel Neil Rangers · 2026-06-29
  • Nazariy Rusyn Karpaty Lviv · 2026-06-29
  • Bertrand Traore no club recorded · 2026-06-29
  • Matthew Young Huddersfield · 2026-06-30
  • Milan Aleksic Partizan · 2026-06-30
  • Eliezer Mayenda Rennes · 2026-07-03
  • Fuhr Hjelde Leo KV Mechelen · 2026-08-11
  • Lutsharel Geertruida RB Leipzig · 2026-06-29

The six the model leans on most

PlayerPosWhere in 2025/26DivisionMins AppsGARating pct
Granit XhakaMSunderlandthe Premier League2723321597
Nordi MukieleDSunderlandthe Premier League2607313383
Enzo Le FeeMSunderlandthe Premier League2794345674
Nilson AnguloMAnderlechtthe Belgian Pro League1902226597
Omar AldereteDSunderlandthe Premier League2712340153
Trai HumeMSunderlandthe Premier League2857362149
Coventryprojected 44 pts · band 33–55 · 1.27 scored and 1.67 conceded per game · Frank Lampard
squad age (by minutes) 26.6minutes from above 0%from below 97%last season’s minutes retained 88%

Last season those minutes were played in: the Championship 93%, the Bundesliga 4%.

We project 44 points (33–55), against a division average of 53. Last season: 95 points in the Championship, finishing 1st. What pulls them down: attacking end (-5), squad quality (-2), ball-winning (-1) points. Of the 27 men who played for them last season, 19 are still on the list. 3 of the 23 registered players have no season in our data, so the projection is built on the other 20. Squad value on our player feed: €184.5m across 22 players — recorded here for context, it is not in the model.

Points, against the division average

Where it comes fromPts
attacking end-5.3
squad quality-2.0
ball-winning-1.4
the club’s own last season+0.1
minutes from the Championship or above-0.0

In since 1 May

  • Frank Onyeka Brentford · 2026-06-30
  • Loum Tchaouna Burnley · 2026-07-10
  • Aurele Amenda Eintracht Frankfurt · 2026-07-15
  • MacKenzie Stretton Gloucester · 2026-05-30
  • Aidan Dausch Scunthorpe · 2026-05-30
  • Harvey Broad Dag · 2026-05-30
  • Isaac Moore Solihull Moors · 2026-05-30
  • Raphael Borges Rodrigues Wigan · 2026-05-30
  • Bradley Collins Burton · 2026-05-30
  • Kai Andrews Hibernian · 2026-05-31
  • Norman Bassette Kaiserslautern · 2026-06-29
  • A. Dausch Forest Green Rovers · 2026-07-01

Out since 1 May

  • Bradley Collins Bristol City · 2026-06-29
  • Jamie Allen no club recorded · 2026-06-29
  • Isaac Moore Walsall · 2026-07-06
  • Norman Bassette Westerlo · 2026-07-22
  • Romain Esse Crystal Palace · 2026-05-30
  • Min-Hyuk Yang Tottenham · 2026-06-29
  • Carl Rushworth Brighton · 2026-06-29
  • Frank Onyeka Brentford · 2026-06-29

The six the model leans on most

PlayerPosWhere in 2025/26DivisionMins AppsGARating pct
Matt GrimesMCoventrythe Championship40354522100
Bobby ThomasDCoventrythe Championship2924353496
Tatsuhiro SakamotoMCoventrythe Championship2494367395
Liam KitchingDCoventrythe Championship3339442089
Victor TorpMCoventrythe Championship2241419694
Haji WrightFCoventrythe Championship25824117187
Ipswichprojected 33 pts · band 22–44 · 0.96 scored and 1.82 conceded per game · Kieran McKenna
squad age (by minutes) 26.9minutes from above 0%from below 100%last season’s minutes retained 91%

Last season those minutes were played in: the Championship 96%, Ligue 1 4%.

We project 33 points (22–44), against a division average of 53. Last season: 84 points in the Championship, finishing 2nd. What pulls them down: attacking end (-15), squad quality (-3), ball-winning (-1) points. Of the 29 men who played for them last season, 20 are still on the list. 3 of the 24 registered players have no season in our data, so the projection is built on the other 21. Squad value on our player feed: €216.9m across 27 players — recorded here for context, it is not in the model.

Points, against the division average

Where it comes fromPts
attacking end-15.4
squad quality-3.5
ball-winning-1.2
minutes from the Championship or above-0.0
the club’s own last season+0.0

In since 1 May

  • Cedric Kipre Reims · 2026-06-30
  • Chuba Akpom Ajax · 2026-06-30
  • Emersonn Toulouse · 2026-07-07
  • Finley Barbrook Colchester · 2026-05-29
  • Tom Taylor Woking · 2026-05-29
  • Leon Ayinde Boreham Wood · 2026-05-30
  • Henry Gray Harrogate · 2026-05-30
  • Cameron Humphreys Huddersfield · 2026-05-30
  • Cieran Slicker Barnet · 2026-05-30
  • Harry Clarke Charlton · 2026-05-30
  • Chiedozie Ogbene Sheffield Utd · 2026-05-30
  • Ali Al Hamadi Luton · 2026-06-29

Out since 1 May

  • Leon Ayinde Doncaster · 2026-06-29
  • Ryan Carr St. Mirren · 2026-06-29
  • Arijanet Muric Sassuolo · 2026-06-29
  • Conor Chaplin no club recorded · 2026-06-29
  • Conor Townsend no club recorded · 2026-06-29
  • Ashley Young no club recorded · 2026-06-29
  • Cieran Slicker Barnsley · 2026-07-12
  • Elkan Baggott Millwall · 2026-07-15
  • Jeremiah Berkeley-Agyepong Chelsea U18 · 2026-05-30
  • Luca Fletcher no club recorded · 2026-05-30
  • Ivan Azon Monzon Como · 2026-06-29
  • Daniel Neil Sunderland · 2026-06-29

The six the model leans on most

PlayerPosWhere in 2025/26DivisionMins AppsGARating pct
Dara O'SheaDIpswichthe Championship3960441196
Anis MehmetiFBristol Citythe Championship2347288699
Azor MatusiwaMIpswichthe Championship3681431294
Jack ClarkeFIpswichthe Championship22824415198
Leif DavisDIpswichthe Championship3077362491
Cedric KipreDIpswichthe Championship2520433295
Hullprojected 28 pts · band 17–38 · 0.84 scored and 1.94 conceded per game · Sergej Jakirovic
squad age (by minutes) 27.2minutes from above 0%from below 100%last season’s minutes retained 98%

Last season those minutes were played in: the Championship 98%.

We project 28 points (17–38), against a division average of 53. Last season: 73 points in the Championship, finishing 6th. What pulls them down: attacking end (-14), squad quality (-11) points. Of the 29 men who played for them last season, 26 are still on the list. 8 of the 32 registered players have no season in our data, so the projection is built on the other 24. Squad value on our player feed: €66.5m across 21 players — recorded here for context, it is not in the model.

Points, against the division average

Where it comes fromPts
attacking end-13.6
squad quality-11.3
ball-winning-0.2
the club’s own last season-0.2
minutes from the Championship or above+0.0

In since 1 May

  • Harvey Cartwright Hartlepool · 2026-05-31
  • Tyrell Sellars-Fleming Grimsby · 2026-05-31
  • Kasey Palmer Luton · 2026-06-30
  • Abdulkadir Omur Antalyaspor · 2026-06-30
  • Thimothee Lo-Tutala Doncaster · 2026-06-30
  • Abu Kamara Getafe · 2026-06-30
  • Mason Burstow Bolton · 2026-06-30
  • James Debayo Swindon · 2027-06-30

Out since 1 May

  • Akin Famewo Bolton · 2026-07-01
  • Ivor Pandur Rangers · 2026-07-01
  • James Debayo Swindon · 2026-07-02
  • Kasey Palmer Luton · 2026-07-04
  • Kyle Joseph Middlesbrough · 2026-07-10
  • Lewis Koumas Liverpool · 2026-05-31
  • John Lundstram Trabzonspor · 2026-06-30
  • Amir Hadziahmetovic Besiktas · 2026-06-30
  • Joe Gelhardt Leeds · 2026-06-30
  • Yu Hirakawa Bristol City · 2026-06-30

The six the model leans on most

PlayerPosWhere in 2025/26DivisionMins AppsGARating pct
Oliver McBurnieFHullthe Championship28263715793
Joe GelhardtFHullthe Championship27663814493
Charlie HughesDHullthe Championship3106431187
John EganDHullthe Championship3396453073
Ivor PandurGHullthe Championship3960450067
Matt CrooksMHullthe Championship2427324374
What this does not know. Squads are as our club feed returned them on 2026-07-28, and the window is still open — a signing made after that is missing, and the model would rate him if he were there. 158 of the 591 registered players have no measured season in our data at all: academy graduates and men signed from divisions we do not cover. They are simply left out of their club’s number rather than guessed at — which is its own kind of blindness, and the count is printed on every club card. We tried making the count of them an input: it improved the backtest and we dropped it anyway, because in the backtest a squad is the men who played and today it is the men a club has registered, so clubs with large academies were being marked down for paperwork. Ratings come from our match-level player records, which start to thin out below the fourth tier. The model has no transfer fees, no injuries, no coaches, no budgets and no pre-season, and it treats last season’s minutes as the guide to this season’s — so a club that has just changed manager and bought a first eleven is exactly where it will be most wrong. It is a projection of a season, not a guide to a match, and it is not a betting product.

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