GoalSoon · built 05 September 2026 · every figure is our own calculation
20 clubs, 591 players currently registered with them, and a projected points total for each — not from what the clubs did last season, but from what the men now in their squads did, wherever in the world they did it. The error is measured and published: ±11 points.
On this page: how it works · how wrong it is · the 20 clubs · where it disagrees with last season · where the minutes were played · club by club
A club is not the same thing in August that it was in April. Squads turn over, and a projection built on last season’s league table cannot see that. So this one starts a level down: every player registered with the 20 clubs, what he did last season, and where he did it.
The problem with adding players up is that a good season in one division is not a good season in another. We do not assume the gap — we measure it, on 8,628 players who actually moved and so were rated in both divisions in consecutive seasons. Fitting all those moves at once puts every division on one scale. The zero has to sit somewhere and we put it on League One, so every number below reads as “this much above or below a League One season”:
| Division | Level, in rating z | Moves seen |
|---|---|---|
| the Premier League | +1.46 | 1015 |
| La Liga | +1.18 | 1247 |
| the Bundesliga | +1.07 | 918 |
| Serie A | +1.03 | 1524 |
| Ligue 1 | +0.83 | 1139 |
| the Championship | +0.61 | 1189 |
| the Belgian Pro League | +0.44 | 628 |
| the Eredivisie | +0.36 | 731 |
| the Segunda | +0.35 | 1288 |
| the Primeira Liga | +0.35 | 652 |
| the 2. Bundesliga | +0.26 | 590 |
| Serie B | +0.23 | 1120 |
| the Scottish Premiership | +0.02 | 408 |
| Ligue 2 | +0.00 | 662 |
| League One | +0.00 | 1560 |
| the 3. Liga | -0.18 | 270 |
| the HNL | -0.21 | 279 |
| League Two | -0.27 | 1267 |
| the Challenger Pro League | -0.27 | 228 |
| the Eerste Divisie | -0.36 | 515 |
The Premier League sits about a point and a half of a standard deviation above League One, the Championship six tenths, League Two a quarter below. A separate term in the same fit carries whatever a player gains or loses simply by changing club, whichever division he lands in (+0.04 on this scale — near enough nothing), so that common effect is not charged to the divisions.
Five figures per club, each measured within its own division and season so that a Championship squad and a League Two squad are read on the same terms. The weights are fitted, not chosen:
| Input | Weight | What it is |
|---|---|---|
| attacking end | +0.481 | The attacking end — the six best goal-and-assist rates in the squad, again measured against the division each man played in. |
| squad quality | +0.238 | Squad quality — the 25 players with the heaviest minutes last season, each scored against his own division and then put on one scale. |
| ball-winning | +0.031 | Ball-winning — tackles per 90 across the squad, on the same scale. |
| the club’s own last season | +0.010 | What the club itself did last season, points per game, adjusted for the level it did it at — the only club-level input, and a light one. |
| minutes from the Championship or above | -0.004 | How much of the squad’s minutes were played in a division rated above League One — the Championship, the Premier League or a foreign division at that level. The threshold is fixed at League One for every page, so the input means the same thing wherever it is used. It is not a bonus for names; a man who played those minutes badly scores badly. |
Fitted on 117 club-seasons from the Championship, League One and League Two, 2020/21 to 2025/26.
Checked by holding out one season at a time and predicting it from the others, so nothing is scored on data it was fitted on:
| Approach | Error, pts/game | Over 38 games |
|---|---|---|
| Give every club the division average | 0.373 | ±14.2 |
| Repeat last season, adjusted for level | 0.351 | ±13.3 |
| This model, from the players | 0.283 | ±10.8 |
So it is worth about 3 points of accuracy over knowing nothing, and about 3 points over assuming last season repeats. That is a real edge and a small one — on 117 club-seasons it holds against the division average at p < 0.001. One thing that number does not say on its own: this method was carried over from three English divisions and tested on thirteen more before any of them got a page. Seven failed and have none — almost all of them second tiers, where a squad explains far less of a season. This division is one that passed, so read the figure as a division that survived a selection, not as a single test. The whole projected range across the division is 54 points and the error on any one club is ±11, which is why the table below is ordered but not numbered, and why the bands overlap almost everywhere. Anyone who tells you they can rank 20 clubs 1 to 20 in August is not measuring their own error.
The same model run on goals rather than points gives 0.260 of a goal per game of error on goals scored against 0.348 for the division average, and 0.264 against 0.294 on goals conceded. So the attacking half reads off a squad list and the defensive half barely does — a defence is harder to see in a list of players than an attack.
| Club | Projected pts | Band | Scored/game | Conceded/game | Squad | No data | Age | Mins from above | Mins from below | Last season pts | Where |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester City | 81 | 71–92 | 2.18 | 0.98 | 31 | 6 | 25.4 | 0% | 5% | 78 | the Premier League |
| Arsenal | 79 | 68–89 | 2.13 | 1.03 | 34 | 13 | 26.3 | 0% | 0% | 85 | the Premier League |
| Liverpool | 63 | 52–73 | 1.70 | 1.30 | 32 | 12 | 26.8 | 0% | 0% | 60 | the Premier League |
| Tottenham | 62 | 52–73 | 1.65 | 1.26 | 35 | 10 | 26.3 | 0% | 1% | 38 | the Premier League |
| Chelsea | 62 | 52–73 | 1.69 | 1.26 | 35 | 11 | 24.3 | 0% | 9% | 52 | the Premier League |
| Manchester Utd | 60 | 49–71 | 1.71 | 1.30 | 40 | 11 | 25.1 | 0% | 26% | 71 | the Premier League |
| Brighton | 53 | 43–64 | 1.44 | 1.40 | 28 | 8 | 26.6 | 0% | 2% | 53 | the Premier League |
| Everton | 53 | 42–64 | 1.41 | 1.33 | 24 | 6 | 26.2 | 0% | 17% | 49 | the Premier League |
| Brentford | 51 | 41–62 | 1.41 | 1.47 | 28 | 11 | 25.5 | 0% | 0% | 53 | the Premier League |
| Crystal Palace | 51 | 40–62 | 1.36 | 1.43 | 25 | 5 | 26.6 | 0% | 9% | 45 | the Premier League |
| Aston Villa | 50 | 39–61 | 1.40 | 1.52 | 30 | 8 | 27.7 | 0% | 7% | 65 | the Premier League |
| Bournemouth | 50 | 39–60 | 1.37 | 1.52 | 24 | 6 | 25.2 | 0% | 7% | 57 | the Premier League |
| Newcastle | 49 | 39–60 | 1.39 | 1.47 | 27 | 6 | 25.4 | 0% | 18% | 49 | the Premier League |
| Nottingham | 48 | 37–59 | 1.30 | 1.50 | 36 | 11 | 26.0 | 0% | 17% | 41 | the Premier League |
| Fulham | 48 | 37–59 | 1.31 | 1.50 | 27 | 6 | 28.5 | 0% | 0% | 52 | the Premier League |
| Leeds | 47 | 37–58 | 1.28 | 1.49 | 28 | 7 | 27.0 | 0% | 0% | 47 | the Premier League |
| Sunderland | 46 | 35–56 | 1.27 | 1.60 | 28 | 7 | 26.0 | 0% | 16% | 54 | the Premier League |
| Coventry | 44 | 33–55 | 1.27 | 1.67 | 23 | 3 | 26.6 | 0% | 97% | 95 | the Championship |
| Ipswich | 33 | 22–44 | 0.96 | 1.82 | 24 | 3 | 26.9 | 0% | 100% | 84 | the Championship |
| Hull | 28 | 17–38 | 0.84 | 1.94 | 32 | 8 | 27.2 | 0% | 100% | 73 | the Championship |
▲ upper group ▼ lower group — grouping is by projection ± half the measured error, not by predicted position. Age is the squad’s average age weighted by the minutes each man played last season, so it describes the side that actually plays rather than the registration list. Mins from above and from below are the shares of last season’s measured minutes played in a division rated higher or lower than this one; the rest were played at this level or in a division we cannot place.
The plainest rival to this model is “whatever the club did last season, corrected for the division it did it in” — the second row of the error table above. Here is that number next to ours, club by club. Where the two agree, the squad has not really changed. Where they part, the summer did something the table cannot see:
| Club | Last season | Repeat it, level-adjusted | This model | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tottenham | 38 pts, the Premier League, 18th | 39 | 62 | +23 |
| Ipswich | 84 pts, the Championship, 2nd | 56 | 33 | -23 |
| Coventry | 95 pts, the Championship, 1st | 63 | 44 | -19 |
| Hull | 73 pts, the Championship, 6th | 44 | 28 | -17 |
| Aston Villa | 65 pts, the Premier League, 4th | 65 | 50 | -15 |
| Manchester Utd | 71 pts, the Premier League, 3rd | 71 | 60 | -11 |
| Chelsea | 52 pts, the Premier League, 10th | 52 | 62 | +10 |
| Sunderland | 54 pts, the Premier League, 7th | 54 | 46 | -8 |
| Bournemouth | 57 pts, the Premier League, 6th | 57 | 50 | -7 |
| Arsenal | 85 pts, the Premier League, 1st | 85 | 79 | -6 |
| Nottingham | 41 pts, the Premier League, 16th | 42 | 48 | +6 |
| Crystal Palace | 45 pts, the Premier League, 15th | 45 | 51 | +6 |
| Fulham | 52 pts, the Premier League, 11th | 52 | 48 | -4 |
| Everton | 49 pts, the Premier League, 13th | 49 | 53 | +4 |
| Manchester City | 78 pts, the Premier League, 2nd | 78 | 81 | +3 |
| Brentford | 53 pts, the Premier League, 9th | 53 | 51 | -2 |
| Liverpool | 60 pts, the Premier League, 5th | 62 | 63 | +1 |
| Leeds | 47 pts, the Premier League, 14th | 48 | 47 | -1 |
| Newcastle | 49 pts, the Premier League, 12th | 49 | 49 | +0 |
| Brighton | 53 pts, the Premier League, 8th | 53 | 53 | +0 |
Sorted by the size of the disagreement. The level adjustment is why a club promoted from League One does not simply keep its 25/26 points total: a point won a division lower is worth less here, and the size of that discount is the measured one from the transfers table above, not a guess.
Every club number on this page is built out of last season’s minutes, so it is worth seeing where those minutes come from. Across the division, the 591 registered players carry 8,143 full games of measured playing time from 2025/26, split like this:
| Division those minutes were played in | Minutes | Share | Level, in rating z |
|---|---|---|---|
| the Premier League | 555,922 | 75.9% | +1.46 |
| the Championship | 139,707 | 19.1% | +0.61 |
| the Bundesliga | 8,467 | 1.2% | +1.07 |
| League One | 8,444 | 1.2% | +0.00 |
| Ligue 1 | 6,331 | 0.9% | +0.83 |
| La Liga | 4,167 | 0.6% | +1.18 |
| Ligue 2 | 3,060 | 0.4% | +0.00 |
| the Scottish Premiership | 2,328 | 0.3% | +0.02 |
| the Belgian Pro League | 1,902 | 0.3% | +0.44 |
Only divisions we hold match-level player data for appear here; minutes played outside them are in the “no measured season” count instead, which is 158 of the 591 registered players. Per-club splits are on each club card below.
Last season those minutes were played in: the Premier League 95%, the Championship 5%.
We project 81 points (71–92), against a division average of 53. Last season: 78 points in the Premier League, finishing 2nd. What pushes them up: attacking end (+19), squad quality (+9) points. Of the 27 men who played for them last season, 25 are still on the list. 6 of the 31 registered players have no season in our data, so the projection is built on the other 25. Squad value on our player feed: €1404.0m across 27 players — recorded here for context, it is not in the model.
| Where it comes from | Pts |
|---|---|
| attacking end | +19.0 |
| squad quality | +9.2 |
| the club’s own last season | +0.3 |
| minutes from the Championship or above | -0.0 |
| ball-winning | +0.0 |
| Player | Pos | Where in 2025/26 | Division | Mins | Apps | G | A | Rating pct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erling Haaland | F | Manchester City | the Premier League | 2778 | 34 | 25 | 7 | 100 |
| Gianluigi Donnarumma | G | Manchester City | the Premier League | 2880 | 32 | 0 | 0 | 77 |
| Matheus Nunes | M | Manchester City | the Premier League | 2685 | 35 | 0 | 5 | 79 |
| Ruben Dias | D | Manchester City | the Premier League | 1969 | 28 | 2 | 0 | 94 |
| Rodri | M | Manchester City | the Premier League | 1513 | 22 | 1 | 0 | 99 |
| Jeremy Doku | M | Manchester City | the Premier League | 1665 | 29 | 5 | 4 | 98 |
Last season those minutes were played in: the Premier League 100%.
We project 79 points (68–89), against a division average of 53. Last season: 85 points in the Premier League, finishing 1st. What pushes them up: attacking end (+16), squad quality (+9) points. Of the 23 men who played for them last season, 22 are still on the list. 13 of the 34 registered players have no season in our data, so the projection is built on the other 21. Squad value on our player feed: €1188.0m across 24 players — recorded here for context, it is not in the model.
| Where it comes from | Pts |
|---|---|
| attacking end | +16.3 |
| squad quality | +8.7 |
| the club’s own last season | +0.4 |
| ball-winning | +0.3 |
| minutes from the Championship or above | -0.0 |
| Player | Pos | Where in 2025/26 | Division | Mins | Apps | G | A | Rating pct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Declan Rice | M | Arsenal | the Premier League | 2754 | 33 | 2 | 5 | 98 |
| Gabriel | D | Arsenal | the Premier League | 2481 | 29 | 2 | 4 | 99 |
| Martin Zubimendi | M | Arsenal | the Premier League | 2673 | 34 | 5 | 1 | 87 |
| Bukayo Saka | M | Arsenal | the Premier League | 1956 | 28 | 7 | 4 | 96 |
| William Saliba | D | Arsenal | the Premier League | 2300 | 27 | 1 | 0 | 90 |
| Jurrien Timber | D | Arsenal | the Premier League | 2168 | 26 | 3 | 5 | 82 |
Last season those minutes were played in: the Premier League 100%.
We project 63 points (52–73), against a division average of 53. Last season: 60 points in the Premier League, finishing 5th. What pushes them up: attacking end (+7), squad quality (+3) points. Of the 23 men who played for them last season, 22 are still on the list. 12 of the 32 registered players have no season in our data, so the projection is built on the other 20. Squad value on our player feed: €948.6m across 26 players — recorded here for context, it is not in the model.
| Where it comes from | Pts |
|---|---|
| attacking end | +6.9 |
| squad quality | +3.1 |
| ball-winning | -0.4 |
| the club’s own last season | +0.1 |
| minutes from the Championship or above | -0.0 |
| Player | Pos | Where in 2025/26 | Division | Mins | Apps | G | A | Rating pct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Virgil van Dijk | D | Liverpool | the Premier League | 2970 | 33 | 6 | 0 | 99 |
| Dominik Szoboszlai | M | Liverpool | the Premier League | 2790 | 31 | 6 | 6 | 90 |
| Ibrahima Konate | D | Liverpool | the Premier League | 2701 | 32 | 1 | 0 | 91 |
| Ryan Gravenberch | M | Liverpool | the Premier League | 2664 | 32 | 5 | 3 | 86 |
| Cody Gakpo | M | Liverpool | the Premier League | 2468 | 32 | 6 | 5 | 77 |
| Hugo Ekitike | F | Liverpool | the Premier League | 1579 | 25 | 9 | 4 | 93 |
Last season those minutes were played in: the Premier League 99%.
We project 62 points (52–73), against a division average of 53. Last season: 38 points in the Premier League, finishing 18th. What pushes them up: attacking end (+9) points. Of the 27 men who played for them last season, 20 are still on the list. 10 of the 35 registered players have no season in our data, so the projection is built on the other 25. Squad value on our player feed: €850.8m across 33 players — recorded here for context, it is not in the model.
| Where it comes from | Pts |
|---|---|
| attacking end | +9.0 |
| squad quality | +0.5 |
| ball-winning | +0.3 |
| the club’s own last season | -0.2 |
| minutes from the Championship or above | -0.0 |
| Player | Pos | Where in 2025/26 | Division | Mins | Apps | G | A | Rating pct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcos Senesi | D | Bournemouth | the Premier League | 3020 | 34 | 0 | 4 | 98 |
| Paul van Hecke Jan | D | Brighton | the Premier League | 2851 | 32 | 3 | 3 | 98 |
| Mateus Fernandes | M | West Ham | the Premier League | 2934 | 35 | 3 | 4 | 93 |
| Martin Dubravka | G | Burnley | the Premier League | 2790 | 34 | 0 | 0 | 72 |
| Sandro Tonali | M | Newcastle | the Premier League | 2514 | 34 | 0 | 2 | 76 |
| Gabriel Romero Cristian | D | Tottenham | the Premier League | 1692 | 21 | 4 | 1 | 95 |
Last season those minutes were played in: the Premier League 91%, League One 5%, Ligue 1 4%.
We project 62 points (52–73), against a division average of 53. Last season: 52 points in the Premier League, finishing 10th. What pushes them up: attacking end (+8), squad quality (+1) points. Of the 27 men who played for them last season, 25 are still on the list. 11 of the 35 registered players have no season in our data, so the projection is built on the other 24. Squad value on our player feed: €1028.1m across 26 players — recorded here for context, it is not in the model.
| Where it comes from | Pts |
|---|---|
| attacking end | +8.1 |
| squad quality | +1.1 |
| ball-winning | +0.2 |
| minutes from the Championship or above | +0.1 |
| the club’s own last season | -0.1 |
| Player | Pos | Where in 2025/26 | Division | Mins | Apps | G | A | Rating pct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pedro Joao | F | Chelsea | the Premier League | 2345 | 31 | 15 | 5 | 98 |
| Enzo Fernandez | M | Chelsea | the Premier League | 2772 | 32 | 9 | 4 | 90 |
| Moises Caicedo | M | Chelsea | the Premier League | 2532 | 31 | 3 | 1 | 92 |
| Trevoh Chalobah | D | Chelsea | the Premier League | 2459 | 31 | 3 | 0 | 86 |
| Cole Palmer | F | Chelsea | the Premier League | 1817 | 25 | 9 | 1 | 94 |
| Pedro Neto | M | Chelsea | the Premier League | 2299 | 30 | 5 | 4 | 79 |
Last season those minutes were played in: the Premier League 74%, the Championship 12%, League One 9%, the Scottish Premiership 4%.
We project 60 points (49–71), against a division average of 53. Last season: 71 points in the Premier League, finishing 3rd. What pushes them up: attacking end (+6) points. Of the 21 men who played for them last season, 18 are still on the list. 11 of the 40 registered players have no season in our data, so the projection is built on the other 29. Squad value on our player feed: €841.2m across 33 players — recorded here for context, it is not in the model.
| Where it comes from | Pts |
|---|---|
| attacking end | +6.0 |
| ball-winning | +0.4 |
| the club’s own last season | +0.2 |
| minutes from the Championship or above | +0.2 |
| squad quality | +0.1 |
| Player | Pos | Where in 2025/26 | Division | Mins | Apps | G | A | Rating pct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bruno Fernandes | M | Manchester Utd | the Premier League | 2621 | 30 | 9 | 20 | 100 |
| Matheus Cunha | F | Manchester Utd | the Premier League | 2063 | 29 | 9 | 2 | 98 |
| Amad Diallo | F | Manchester Utd | the Premier League | 2122 | 28 | 2 | 2 | 92 |
| Karl Darlow | G | Leeds | the Premier League | 1710 | 34 | 0 | 0 | 95 |
| Youri Tielemans | M | Aston Villa | the Premier League | 1772 | 24 | 0 | 3 | 93 |
| Senne Lammens | G | Manchester Utd | the Premier League | 2610 | 31 | 0 | 0 | 69 |
Last season those minutes were played in: the Premier League 98%.
We project 53 points (43–64), against a division average of 53. Last season: 53 points in the Premier League, finishing 8th. What pushes them up: squad quality (+1), ball-winning (+1) points. What pulls them down: attacking end (-1) points. Of the 26 men who played for them last season, 22 are still on the list. 8 of the 28 registered players have no season in our data, so the projection is built on the other 20. Squad value on our player feed: €438.7m across 25 players — recorded here for context, it is not in the model.
| Where it comes from | Pts |
|---|---|
| attacking end | -0.9 |
| squad quality | +0.9 |
| ball-winning | +0.6 |
| the club’s own last season | -0.0 |
| minutes from the Championship or above | -0.0 |
| Player | Pos | Where in 2025/26 | Division | Mins | Apps | G | A | Rating pct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paul van Hecke Jan | D | Brighton | the Premier League | 2851 | 32 | 3 | 3 | 98 |
| Bart Verbruggen | G | Brighton | the Premier League | 3060 | 34 | 0 | 0 | 82 |
| Lewis Dunk | D | Brighton | the Premier League | 2484 | 30 | 1 | 0 | 85 |
| Ferdi Kadioglu | D | Brighton | the Premier League | 2774 | 34 | 1 | 0 | 55 |
| Pascal Gross | M | Brighton | the Premier League | 1617 | 18 | 1 | 3 | 88 |
| Yankuba Minteh | M | Brighton | the Premier League | 2128 | 33 | 3 | 3 | 70 |
Last season those minutes were played in: the Premier League 83%, the Championship 13%, League One 4%.
We project 53 points (42–64), against a division average of 53. Last season: 49 points in the Premier League, finishing 13th. What pushes them up: squad quality (+3) points. What pulls them down: attacking end (-4) points. Of the 22 men who played for them last season, 18 are still on the list. 6 of the 24 registered players have no season in our data, so the projection is built on the other 18. Squad value on our player feed: €558.3m across 28 players — recorded here for context, it is not in the model.
| Where it comes from | Pts |
|---|---|
| attacking end | -3.8 |
| squad quality | +3.3 |
| ball-winning | +0.4 |
| the club’s own last season | -0.1 |
| minutes from the Championship or above | +0.0 |
| Player | Pos | Where in 2025/26 | Division | Mins | Apps | G | A | Rating pct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Garner | M | Everton | the Premier League | 3060 | 34 | 2 | 7 | 96 |
| James Tarkowski | D | Everton | the Premier League | 2970 | 33 | 2 | 3 | 96 |
| Hayden Hackney | M | Middlesbrough | the Championship | 3224 | 37 | 5 | 7 | 99 |
| Jordan Pickford | G | Everton | the Premier League | 3060 | 34 | 0 | 0 | 85 |
| Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall | M | Everton | the Premier League | 2394 | 27 | 8 | 4 | 94 |
| Iliman Ndiaye | M | Everton | the Premier League | 2426 | 28 | 6 | 3 | 64 |
Last season those minutes were played in: the Premier League 100%.
We project 51 points (41–62), against a division average of 53. Last season: 53 points in the Premier League, finishing 9th. What pulls them down: attacking end (-1), squad quality (-1) points. Of the 23 men who played for them last season, 20 are still on the list. 11 of the 28 registered players have no season in our data, so the projection is built on the other 17. Squad value on our player feed: €458.0m across 20 players — recorded here for context, it is not in the model.
| Where it comes from | Pts |
|---|---|
| attacking end | -0.7 |
| squad quality | -0.7 |
| the club’s own last season | -0.0 |
| minutes from the Championship or above | -0.0 |
| ball-winning | +0.0 |
| Player | Pos | Where in 2025/26 | Division | Mins | Apps | G | A | Rating pct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Igor Thiago | F | Brentford | the Premier League | 2925 | 34 | 17 | 1 | 88 |
| Caoimhin Kelleher | G | Brentford | the Premier League | 2970 | 33 | 0 | 0 | 74 |
| Michael Kayode | D | Brentford | the Premier League | 2904 | 33 | 0 | 1 | 69 |
| Mikkel Damsgaard | M | Brentford | the Premier League | 1846 | 32 | 4 | 3 | 86 |
| Dango Ouattara | F | Brentford | the Premier League | 2030 | 29 | 6 | 2 | 79 |
| Mathias Jensen | M | Brentford | the Premier League | 2098 | 34 | 2 | 1 | 76 |
Last season those minutes were played in: the Premier League 91%, La Liga 6%.
We project 51 points (40–62), against a division average of 53. Last season: 45 points in the Premier League, finishing 15th. What pushes them up: ball-winning (+1) points. What pulls them down: attacking end (-2) points. Of the 28 men who played for them last season, 21 are still on the list. 5 of the 25 registered players have no season in our data, so the projection is built on the other 20. Squad value on our player feed: €541.2m across 28 players — recorded here for context, it is not in the model.
| Where it comes from | Pts |
|---|---|
| attacking end | -2.4 |
| ball-winning | +0.7 |
| squad quality | -0.2 |
| the club’s own last season | -0.2 |
| minutes from the Championship or above | -0.0 |
| Player | Pos | Where in 2025/26 | Division | Mins | Apps | G | A | Rating pct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Wharton | M | Crystal Palace | the Premier League | 2321 | 31 | 1 | 5 | 88 |
| Chris Richards | D | Crystal Palace | the Premier League | 2556 | 31 | 1 | 0 | 74 |
| Daniel Munoz | D | Crystal Palace | the Premier League | 2134 | 26 | 4 | 3 | 83 |
| Maxence Lacroix | D | Crystal Palace | the Premier League | 2817 | 33 | 1 | 2 | 64 |
| Yeremy Pino | F | Crystal Palace | the Premier League | 1967 | 34 | 2 | 2 | 85 |
| Dean Henderson | G | Crystal Palace | the Premier League | 3060 | 34 | 0 | 0 | 54 |
Last season those minutes were played in: the Premier League 93%, the Bundesliga 6%.
We project 50 points (39–61), against a division average of 53. Last season: 65 points in the Premier League, finishing 4th. What pulls them down: attacking end (-3) points. Of the 26 men who played for them last season, 19 are still on the list. 8 of the 30 registered players have no season in our data, so the projection is built on the other 22. Squad value on our player feed: €591.8m across 29 players — recorded here for context, it is not in the model.
| Where it comes from | Pts |
|---|---|
| attacking end | -2.7 |
| squad quality | -0.2 |
| the club’s own last season | +0.1 |
| minutes from the Championship or above | -0.0 |
| ball-winning | +0.0 |
| Player | Pos | Where in 2025/26 | Division | Mins | Apps | G | A | Rating pct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morgan Rogers | F | Aston Villa | the Premier League | 3015 | 34 | 9 | 5 | 83 |
| Ollie Watkins | F | Aston Villa | the Premier League | 2654 | 34 | 15 | 3 | 87 |
| Ezri Konsa | D | Aston Villa | the Premier League | 2766 | 33 | 0 | 0 | 85 |
| Johan Manzambi | M | Freiburg | the Bundesliga | 2094 | 28 | 5 | 4 | 96 |
| Emiliano Martinez | G | Aston Villa | the Premier League | 2565 | 29 | 0 | 1 | 64 |
| Matty Cash | D | Aston Villa | the Premier League | 2751 | 32 | 2 | 2 | 53 |
Last season those minutes were played in: the Premier League 93%, La Liga 7%.
We project 50 points (39–60), against a division average of 53. Last season: 57 points in the Premier League, finishing 6th. What pulls them down: attacking end (-2), squad quality (-1) points. Of the 23 men who played for them last season, 18 are still on the list. 6 of the 24 registered players have no season in our data, so the projection is built on the other 18. Squad value on our player feed: €483.4m across 23 players — recorded here for context, it is not in the model.
| Where it comes from | Pts |
|---|---|
| attacking end | -2.1 |
| squad quality | -1.4 |
| ball-winning | +0.1 |
| minutes from the Championship or above | -0.0 |
| the club’s own last season | +0.0 |
| Player | Pos | Where in 2025/26 | Division | Mins | Apps | G | A | Rating pct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Scott | M | Bournemouth | the Premier League | 2675 | 34 | 3 | 1 | 89 |
| Alvaro Rodriguez | F | Elche | La Liga | 2200 | 37 | 7 | 5 | 90 |
| Adrien Truffert | D | Bournemouth | the Premier League | 3110 | 35 | 1 | 5 | 59 |
| James Hill | D | Bournemouth | the Premier League | 2030 | 32 | 0 | 3 | 84 |
| Marcus Tavernier | M | Bournemouth | the Premier League | 2529 | 31 | 6 | 4 | 61 |
| Djordje Petrovic | G | Bournemouth | the Premier League | 3150 | 35 | 0 | 0 | 46 |
Last season those minutes were played in: the Premier League 82%, Ligue 2 8%, the Bundesliga 6%, the Eredivisie 3%.
We project 49 points (39–60), against a division average of 53. Last season: 49 points in the Premier League, finishing 12th. What pulls them down: squad quality (-3), attacking end (-1) points. Of the 25 men who played for them last season, 19 are still on the list. 6 of the 27 registered players have no season in our data, so the projection is built on the other 21. Squad value on our player feed: €622.9m across 27 players — recorded here for context, it is not in the model.
| Where it comes from | Pts |
|---|---|
| squad quality | -2.8 |
| attacking end | -0.6 |
| minutes from the Championship or above | +0.1 |
| the club’s own last season | -0.1 |
| ball-winning | -0.0 |
| Player | Pos | Where in 2025/26 | Division | Mins | Apps | G | A | Rating pct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guimaraes Bruno | M | Newcastle | the Premier League | 2365 | 29 | 8 | 5 | 100 |
| Malick Thiaw | D | Newcastle | the Premier League | 2874 | 37 | 4 | 0 | 88 |
| Sven Botman | D | Newcastle | the Premier League | 1777 | 29 | 1 | 1 | 91 |
| Bazoumana Toure | F | Hoffenheim | the Bundesliga | 2325 | 33 | 5 | 9 | 86 |
| Lewis Hall | D | Newcastle | the Premier League | 2179 | 34 | 1 | 1 | 73 |
| Joelinton | F | Newcastle | the Premier League | 1863 | 29 | 2 | 1 | 78 |
Last season those minutes were played in: the Premier League 83%, the Bundesliga 7%, the Championship 6%.
We project 48 points (37–59), against a division average of 53. Last season: 41 points in the Premier League, finishing 16th. What pulls them down: attacking end (-3), squad quality (-2) points. Of the 29 men who played for them last season, 22 are still on the list. 11 of the 36 registered players have no season in our data, so the projection is built on the other 25. Squad value on our player feed: €515.7m across 29 players — recorded here for context, it is not in the model.
| Where it comes from | Pts |
|---|---|
| attacking end | -2.8 |
| squad quality | -1.8 |
| the club’s own last season | -0.2 |
| ball-winning | -0.0 |
| minutes from the Championship or above | +0.0 |
| Player | Pos | Where in 2025/26 | Division | Mins | Apps | G | A | Rating pct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morgan Gibbs-White | F | Nottingham | the Premier League | 2712 | 32 | 13 | 3 | 90 |
| Nikola Milenkovic | D | Nottingham | the Premier League | 2925 | 33 | 0 | 0 | 66 |
| Neco Williams | M | Nottingham | the Premier League | 2756 | 32 | 2 | 2 | 68 |
| Callum Hudson-Odoi | F | Nottingham | the Premier League | 1675 | 26 | 3 | 4 | 91 |
| Ibrahim Sangare | M | Nottingham | the Premier League | 1900 | 27 | 2 | 2 | 82 |
| Murillo | D | Nottingham | the Premier League | 1773 | 22 | 0 | 0 | 79 |
Last season those minutes were played in: the Premier League 100%.
We project 48 points (37–59), against a division average of 53. Last season: 52 points in the Premier League, finishing 11th. What pulls them down: attacking end (-5), squad quality (-1) points. Of the 23 men who played for them last season, 22 are still on the list. 6 of the 27 registered players have no season in our data, so the projection is built on the other 21. Squad value on our player feed: €379.1m across 22 players — recorded here for context, it is not in the model.
| Where it comes from | Pts |
|---|---|
| attacking end | -4.5 |
| squad quality | -0.9 |
| ball-winning | +0.5 |
| the club’s own last season | -0.1 |
| minutes from the Championship or above | -0.0 |
| Player | Pos | Where in 2025/26 | Division | Mins | Apps | G | A | Rating pct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harry Wilson | F | Fulham | the Premier League | 2602 | 35 | 9 | 5 | 95 |
| Joachim Andersen | D | Fulham | the Premier League | 2794 | 33 | 0 | 1 | 89 |
| Alex Iwobi | M | Fulham | the Premier League | 2266 | 27 | 4 | 3 | 89 |
| Sander Berge | M | Fulham | the Premier League | 2731 | 35 | 0 | 1 | 63 |
| Calvin Bassey | D | Fulham | the Premier League | 2364 | 30 | 0 | 0 | 68 |
| Kenny Tete | D | Fulham | the Premier League | 1623 | 26 | 1 | 0 | 86 |
Last season those minutes were played in: the Premier League 100%.
We project 47 points (37–58), against a division average of 53. Last season: 47 points in the Premier League, finishing 14th. What pulls them down: attacking end (-6) points. Of the 24 men who played for them last season, 23 are still on the list. 7 of the 28 registered players have no season in our data, so the projection is built on the other 21. Squad value on our player feed: €361.8m across 27 players — recorded here for context, it is not in the model.
| Where it comes from | Pts |
|---|---|
| attacking end | -5.9 |
| ball-winning | +0.4 |
| the club’s own last season | -0.1 |
| squad quality | +0.1 |
| minutes from the Championship or above | -0.0 |
| Player | Pos | Where in 2025/26 | Division | Mins | Apps | G | A | Rating pct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ethan Ampadu | M | Leeds | the Premier League | 2853 | 32 | 1 | 1 | 92 |
| Anton Stach | M | Leeds | the Premier League | 2136 | 27 | 5 | 2 | 94 |
| Dominic Calvert-Lewin | F | Leeds | the Premier League | 2457 | 32 | 14 | 1 | 80 |
| Karl Darlow | G | Leeds | the Premier League | 1710 | 34 | 0 | 0 | 95 |
| Brenden Aaronson | F | Leeds | the Premier League | 2234 | 35 | 4 | 5 | 73 |
| Pascal Struijk | D | Leeds | the Premier League | 2667 | 33 | 0 | 1 | 58 |
Last season those minutes were played in: the Premier League 84%, Ligue 1 8%, the Belgian Pro League 5%.
We project 46 points (35–56), against a division average of 53. Last season: 54 points in the Premier League, finishing 7th. What pulls them down: attacking end (-4), squad quality (-2), ball-winning (-1) points. Of the 26 men who played for them last season, 18 are still on the list. 7 of the 28 registered players have no season in our data, so the projection is built on the other 21. Squad value on our player feed: €401.2m across 25 players — recorded here for context, it is not in the model.
| Where it comes from | Pts |
|---|---|
| attacking end | -4.4 |
| squad quality | -2.2 |
| ball-winning | -0.7 |
| minutes from the Championship or above | -0.0 |
| the club’s own last season | -0.0 |
| Player | Pos | Where in 2025/26 | Division | Mins | Apps | G | A | Rating pct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Granit Xhaka | M | Sunderland | the Premier League | 2723 | 32 | 1 | 5 | 97 |
| Nordi Mukiele | D | Sunderland | the Premier League | 2607 | 31 | 3 | 3 | 83 |
| Enzo Le Fee | M | Sunderland | the Premier League | 2794 | 34 | 5 | 6 | 74 |
| Nilson Angulo | M | Anderlecht | the Belgian Pro League | 1902 | 22 | 6 | 5 | 97 |
| Omar Alderete | D | Sunderland | the Premier League | 2712 | 34 | 0 | 1 | 53 |
| Trai Hume | M | Sunderland | the Premier League | 2857 | 36 | 2 | 1 | 49 |
Last season those minutes were played in: the Championship 93%, the Bundesliga 4%.
We project 44 points (33–55), against a division average of 53. Last season: 95 points in the Championship, finishing 1st. What pulls them down: attacking end (-5), squad quality (-2), ball-winning (-1) points. Of the 27 men who played for them last season, 19 are still on the list. 3 of the 23 registered players have no season in our data, so the projection is built on the other 20. Squad value on our player feed: €184.5m across 22 players — recorded here for context, it is not in the model.
| Where it comes from | Pts |
|---|---|
| attacking end | -5.3 |
| squad quality | -2.0 |
| ball-winning | -1.4 |
| the club’s own last season | +0.1 |
| minutes from the Championship or above | -0.0 |
| Player | Pos | Where in 2025/26 | Division | Mins | Apps | G | A | Rating pct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Grimes | M | Coventry | the Championship | 4035 | 45 | 2 | 2 | 100 |
| Bobby Thomas | D | Coventry | the Championship | 2924 | 35 | 3 | 4 | 96 |
| Tatsuhiro Sakamoto | M | Coventry | the Championship | 2494 | 36 | 7 | 3 | 95 |
| Liam Kitching | D | Coventry | the Championship | 3339 | 44 | 2 | 0 | 89 |
| Victor Torp | M | Coventry | the Championship | 2241 | 41 | 9 | 6 | 94 |
| Haji Wright | F | Coventry | the Championship | 2582 | 41 | 17 | 1 | 87 |
Last season those minutes were played in: the Championship 96%, Ligue 1 4%.
We project 33 points (22–44), against a division average of 53. Last season: 84 points in the Championship, finishing 2nd. What pulls them down: attacking end (-15), squad quality (-3), ball-winning (-1) points. Of the 29 men who played for them last season, 20 are still on the list. 3 of the 24 registered players have no season in our data, so the projection is built on the other 21. Squad value on our player feed: €216.9m across 27 players — recorded here for context, it is not in the model.
| Where it comes from | Pts |
|---|---|
| attacking end | -15.4 |
| squad quality | -3.5 |
| ball-winning | -1.2 |
| minutes from the Championship or above | -0.0 |
| the club’s own last season | +0.0 |
| Player | Pos | Where in 2025/26 | Division | Mins | Apps | G | A | Rating pct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dara O'Shea | D | Ipswich | the Championship | 3960 | 44 | 1 | 1 | 96 |
| Anis Mehmeti | F | Bristol City | the Championship | 2347 | 28 | 8 | 6 | 99 |
| Azor Matusiwa | M | Ipswich | the Championship | 3681 | 43 | 1 | 2 | 94 |
| Jack Clarke | F | Ipswich | the Championship | 2282 | 44 | 15 | 1 | 98 |
| Leif Davis | D | Ipswich | the Championship | 3077 | 36 | 2 | 4 | 91 |
| Cedric Kipre | D | Ipswich | the Championship | 2520 | 43 | 3 | 2 | 95 |
Last season those minutes were played in: the Championship 98%.
We project 28 points (17–38), against a division average of 53. Last season: 73 points in the Championship, finishing 6th. What pulls them down: attacking end (-14), squad quality (-11) points. Of the 29 men who played for them last season, 26 are still on the list. 8 of the 32 registered players have no season in our data, so the projection is built on the other 24. Squad value on our player feed: €66.5m across 21 players — recorded here for context, it is not in the model.
| Where it comes from | Pts |
|---|---|
| attacking end | -13.6 |
| squad quality | -11.3 |
| ball-winning | -0.2 |
| the club’s own last season | -0.2 |
| minutes from the Championship or above | +0.0 |
| Player | Pos | Where in 2025/26 | Division | Mins | Apps | G | A | Rating pct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oliver McBurnie | F | Hull | the Championship | 2826 | 37 | 15 | 7 | 93 |
| Joe Gelhardt | F | Hull | the Championship | 2766 | 38 | 14 | 4 | 93 |
| Charlie Hughes | D | Hull | the Championship | 3106 | 43 | 1 | 1 | 87 |
| John Egan | D | Hull | the Championship | 3396 | 45 | 3 | 0 | 73 |
| Ivor Pandur | G | Hull | the Championship | 3960 | 45 | 0 | 0 | 67 |
| Matt Crooks | M | Hull | the Championship | 2427 | 32 | 4 | 3 | 74 |
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