Serie A 2026/27: a projection built from the players, club by club

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GoalSoon · built 05 September 2026 · every figure is our own calculation

20 clubs, 609 players currently registered with them, and a projected points total for each — not from what the clubs did last season, but from what the men now in their squads did, wherever in the world they did it. The error is measured and published: ±8 points.

How to read the number

On this page: how it works · how wrong it is · the 20 clubs · where it disagrees with last season · where the minutes were played · club by club

The idea

A club is not the same thing in August that it was in April. Squads turn over, and a projection built on last season’s league table cannot see that. So this one starts a level down: every player registered with the 20 clubs, what he did last season, and where he did it.

The problem with adding players up is that a good season in one division is not a good season in another. We do not assume the gap — we measure it, on 8,628 players who actually moved and so were rated in both divisions in consecutive seasons. Fitting all those moves at once puts every division on one scale. The zero has to sit somewhere and we put it on League One, so every number below reads as “this much above or below a League One season”:

DivisionLevel, in rating zMoves seen
the Premier League+1.461015
La Liga+1.181247
the Bundesliga+1.07918
Serie A+1.031524
Ligue 1+0.831139
the Championship+0.611189
the Belgian Pro League+0.44628
the Eredivisie+0.36731
the Segunda+0.351288
the Primeira Liga+0.35652
the 2. Bundesliga+0.26590
Serie B+0.231120
the Scottish Premiership+0.02408
Ligue 2+0.00662
League One+0.001560
the 3. Liga-0.18270
the HNL-0.21279
League Two-0.271267
the Challenger Pro League-0.27228
the Eerste Divisie-0.36515

The Premier League sits about a point and a half of a standard deviation above League One, the Championship six tenths, League Two a quarter below. A separate term in the same fit carries whatever a player gains or loses simply by changing club, whichever division he lands in (+0.04 on this scale — near enough nothing), so that common effect is not charged to the divisions.

What goes into a club’s number

Five figures per club, each measured within its own division and season so that a Championship squad and a League Two squad are read on the same terms. The weights are fitted, not chosen:

InputWeightWhat it is
squad quality+0.532Squad quality — the 25 players with the heaviest minutes last season, each scored against his own division and then put on one scale.
the club’s own last season+0.231What the club itself did last season, points per game, adjusted for the level it did it at — the only club-level input, and a light one.
attacking end+0.121The attacking end — the six best goal-and-assist rates in the squad, again measured against the division each man played in.
ball-winning+0.088Ball-winning — tackles per 90 across the squad, on the same scale.
minutes from the Championship or above-0.043How much of the squad’s minutes were played in a division rated above League One — the Championship, the Premier League or a foreign division at that level. The threshold is fixed at League One for every page, so the input means the same thing wherever it is used. It is not a bonus for names; a man who played those minutes badly scores badly.

Fitted on 120 club-seasons from the Championship, League One and League Two, 2020/21 to 2025/26.

How wrong it is

Checked by holding out one season at a time and predicting it from the others, so nothing is scored on data it was fitted on:

ApproachError, pts/gameOver 38 games
Give every club the division average0.416 ±15.8
Repeat last season, adjusted for level0.282 ±10.7
This model, from the players0.221 ±8.4

So it is worth about 7 points of accuracy over knowing nothing, and about 2 points over assuming last season repeats. That is a real edge and a small one — on 120 club-seasons it holds against the division average at p < 0.001. One thing that number does not say on its own: this method was carried over from three English divisions and tested on thirteen more before any of them got a page. Seven failed and have none — almost all of them second tiers, where a squad explains far less of a season. This division is one that passed, so read the figure as a division that survived a selection, not as a single test. The whole projected range across the division is 56 points and the error on any one club is ±8, which is why the table below is ordered but not numbered, and why the bands overlap almost everywhere. Anyone who tells you they can rank 20 clubs 1 to 20 in August is not measuring their own error.

The same model run on goals rather than points gives 0.234 of a goal per game of error on goals scored against 0.346 for the division average, and 0.208 against 0.298 on goals conceded. Both are small gains, and neither is the point of the page: the model is built and tested on points.

The 20 clubs

ClubProjected ptsBandScored/gameConceded/game SquadNo dataAgeMins from aboveMins from below Last season ptsWhere
Inter8577–942.050.80381628.80%0%93Serie A
AS Roma7668–841.840.9333926.63%1%79Serie A
Como7264–811.730.9830725.28%8%75Serie A
AC Milan7163–801.730.99301027.50%0%76Serie A
Juventus6759–761.671.0831826.30%2%75Serie A
Atalanta6557–731.551.0630927.10%0%65Serie A
Napoli5849–661.571.3329628.40%0%79Serie A
Lazio5143–591.311.33331027.80%5%60Serie A
Bologna4840–571.291.3930526.25%4%56Serie A
Sassuolo4739–561.201.35261026.90%8%52Serie A
Udinese4436–531.181.4834626.32%18%54Serie A
Venezia4436–531.291.5935925.48%84%82Serie B
Fiorentina4435–521.071.36331426.37%0%42Serie A
Frosinone4335–521.281.5824624.00%100%78Serie B
Genoa4234–511.031.40331825.20%7%41Serie A
Cagliari4133–491.061.54321225.02%19%46Serie A
Parma3830–470.981.53321024.30%5%45Serie A
Torino3729–451.041.5725427.00%11%45Serie A
Monza3224–411.041.7724827.70%100%76Serie B
Lecce3021–380.861.72271025.50%13%41Serie A

▲ upper group   ▼ lower group — grouping is by projection ± half the measured error, not by predicted position. Age is the squad’s average age weighted by the minutes each man played last season, so it describes the side that actually plays rather than the registration list. Mins from above and from below are the shares of last season’s measured minutes played in a division rated higher or lower than this one; the rest were played at this level or in a division we cannot place.

Where it disagrees with last season

The plainest rival to this model is “whatever the club did last season, corrected for the division it did it in” — the second row of the error table above. Here is that number next to ours, club by club. Where the two agree, the squad has not really changed. Where they part, the summer did something the table cannot see:

ClubLast seasonRepeat it, level-adjustedThis model Difference
Monza76 pts, Serie B, 3rd6232-30
Venezia82 pts, Serie B, 1st6844-24
Frosinone78 pts, Serie B, 2nd6643-23
Napoli79 pts, Serie A, 3rd7558-17
Lecce41 pts, Serie A, 17th3930-9
Udinese54 pts, Serie A, 10th5144-7
Lazio60 pts, Serie A, 8th5751-6
Torino45 pts, Serie A, 13th4337-6
Bologna56 pts, Serie A, 9th5348-5
Parma45 pts, Serie A, 14th4338-4
Juventus75 pts, Serie A, 6th7167-4
Fiorentina42 pts, Serie A, 15th4044+4
Atalanta65 pts, Serie A, 7th6265+3
Genoa41 pts, Serie A, 16th3942+3
Inter93 pts, Serie A, 1st8885-3
Cagliari46 pts, Serie A, 12th4441-3
Sassuolo52 pts, Serie A, 11th4947-2
Como75 pts, Serie A, 5th7172+1
AS Roma79 pts, Serie A, 2nd7576+1
AC Milan76 pts, Serie A, 4th7271-1

Sorted by the size of the disagreement. The level adjustment is why a club promoted from League One does not simply keep its 25/26 points total: a point won a division lower is worth less here, and the size of that discount is the measured one from the transfers table above, not a guess.

Where the minutes were played

Every club number on this page is built out of last season’s minutes, so it is worth seeing where those minutes come from. Across the division, the 609 registered players carry 8,099 full games of measured playing time from 2025/26, split like this:

Division those minutes were played inMinutesShare Level, in rating z
Serie A581,68979.8%+1.03
Serie B107,61514.8%+0.23
La Liga11,0661.5%+1.18
the Championship7,5081.0%+0.61
the Belgian Pro League4,0680.6%+0.44
the Premier League2,6180.4%+1.46
the 2. Bundesliga2,5240.3%+0.26
Ligue 12,1300.3%+0.83
Ligue 21,9560.3%+0.00
the Eerste Divisie1,8200.2%-0.36
the HNL1,8140.2%-0.21
the Primeira Liga1,6300.2%+0.35

Only divisions we hold match-level player data for appear here; minutes played outside them are in the “no measured season” count instead, which is 187 of the 609 registered players. Per-club splits are on each club card below.

Club by club

Interprojected 85 pts · band 77–94 · 2.05 scored and 0.80 conceded per game · Cristian Chivu
squad age (by minutes) 28.8minutes from above 0%from below 0%last season’s minutes retained 100%

Last season those minutes were played in: Serie A 100%.

We project 85 points (77–94), against a division average of 52. Last season: 93 points in Serie A, finishing 1st. What pushes them up: squad quality (+21), the club’s own last season (+9), attacking end (+4) points. Of the 24 men who played for them last season, 23 are still on the list. 16 of the 38 registered players have no season in our data, so the projection is built on the other 22. Squad value on our player feed: €637.1m across 24 players — recorded here for context, it is not in the model.

Points, against the division average

Where it comes fromPts
squad quality+20.7
the club’s own last season+8.9
attacking end+4.1
minutes from the Championship or above-0.5
ball-winning+0.4

In since 1 May

  • Manuel Akanji Manchester City · 2026-07-01
  • Benjamin Pavard Marseille · 2026-06-30
  • Sebastiano Esposito Cagliari · 2026-06-30
  • Kristjan Asllani Besiktas · 2026-06-30
  • Yanis Massolin Modena · 2026-06-30
  • Ebenezer Akinsanmiro Pisa · 2026-06-30
  • Franco Carboni Parma · 2026-06-30
  • Tomas Palacios Estudiantes L.P. · 2026-12-31
  • Giacomo De Pieri Ascoli · 2027-06-30

Out since 1 May

  • Stefan de Vrij Panathinaikos · 2026-07-01
  • Sebastiano Esposito Cagliari · 2026-07-01
  • Franco Carboni Parma · 2026-07-02
  • Giacomo De Pieri Ascoli · 2026-07-06
  • Yann Sommer Club Brugge KV · 2026-07-14
  • Manuel Akanji Manchester City · 2026-06-30

The six the model leans on most

PlayerPosWhere in 2025/26DivisionMins AppsGARating pct
Federico DimarcoMInterSerie A28844071698
Manuel AkanjiDInterSerie A2963372096
Alessandro BastoniDInterSerie A24293714100
Nicolo BarellaMInterSerie A2713373996
Lautaro MartinezFInterSerie A23223517695
Hakan CalhanogluMInterSerie A176929114100
AS Romaprojected 76 pts · band 68–84 · 1.84 scored and 0.93 conceded per game · Piero Gasperini Gian
squad age (by minutes) 26.6minutes from above 3%from below 1%last season’s minutes retained 98%

Last season those minutes were played in: Serie A 96%.

We project 76 points (68–84), against a division average of 52. Last season: 79 points in Serie A, finishing 2nd. What pushes them up: squad quality (+14), the club’s own last season (+5), attacking end (+3) points. Of the 26 men who played for them last season, 23 are still on the list. 9 of the 33 registered players have no season in our data, so the projection is built on the other 24. Squad value on our player feed: €451.4m across 25 players — recorded here for context, it is not in the model.

Points, against the division average

Where it comes fromPts
squad quality+14.1
the club’s own last season+4.9
attacking end+3.4
ball-winning+2.1
minutes from the Championship or above-0.5

In since 1 May

  • Donyell Malen Aston Villa · 2026-07-01
  • Eldor Shomurodov Basaksehir · 2026-06-30
  • Marash Kumbulla Mallorca · 2026-06-30
  • Stiven Vasquez Llach Devis Besiktas · 2026-06-30
  • Anass Salah-Eddine PSV · 2026-06-30
  • Saud Abdulhamid Lens · 2026-06-30
  • Riccardo Pagano Bari · 2026-06-30
  • Luigi Cherubini Sampdoria · 2026-06-30
  • Alessandro Romano Spezia · 2026-06-30
  • Tommaso Baldanzi Genoa · 2026-06-30
  • Sangare Buba Elche · 2026-06-30

Out since 1 May

  • Eldor Shomurodov Basaksehir · 2026-07-01
  • Saud Abdulhamid Lens · 2026-07-01
  • Alessandro Romano Cagliari · 2026-07-01
  • Sangare Buba Elche · 2026-07-01
  • Donyell Malen Aston Villa · 2026-06-30
  • Bryan Zaragoza Bayern Munich · 2026-06-30
  • Daniele Ghilardi Verona · 2026-06-30
  • Konstantinos Tsimikas Liverpool · 2026-06-30
  • Evan Ferguson Brighton · 2026-06-30

The six the model leans on most

PlayerPosWhere in 2025/26DivisionMins AppsGARating pct
Gianluca ManciniDAS RomaSerie A3162374394
Bryan CristanteMAS RomaSerie A3199382190
Matias SouleFAS RomaSerie A2227347597
Manu KoneMAS RomaSerie A2526302391
Evan NdickaDAS RomaSerie A2683323088
Franca WesleyMAS RomaSerie A2517315188
Comoprojected 72 pts · band 64–81 · 1.73 scored and 0.98 conceded per game · Cesc Fabregas
squad age (by minutes) 25.2minutes from above 8%from below 8%last season’s minutes retained 85%

Last season those minutes were played in: Serie A 84%, La Liga 8%, Serie B 6%.

We project 72 points (64–81), against a division average of 52. Last season: 75 points in Serie A, finishing 5th. What pushes them up: squad quality (+13), the club’s own last season (+4), ball-winning (+2) points. Of the 23 men who played for them last season, 18 are still on the list. 7 of the 30 registered players have no season in our data, so the projection is built on the other 23. Squad value on our player feed: €407.7m across 30 players — recorded here for context, it is not in the model.

Points, against the division average

Where it comes fromPts
squad quality+12.5
the club’s own last season+3.8
ball-winning+2.4
attacking end+2.2
minutes from the Championship or above-0.5

In since 1 May

  • Levente Bosze Dun. Streda · 2026-06-30
  • Andres Cuenca Barcelona · 2026-06-30
  • Luis Milla Getafe · 2026-06-30
  • Alvaro Morata AC Milan · 2026-06-30
  • Kaiki Cruzeiro · 2026-07-01
  • Mattia Liberali Catanzaro · 2026-07-14
  • Andrea Le Borgne Avellino · 2026-06-29
  • Giuseppe Mazzaglia Piacenza · 2026-06-29
  • Jack Fellipe Catanzaro · 2026-06-29
  • Federico Chinetti Trento · 2026-06-29
  • Fabio Rispoli Catanzaro · 2026-06-29
  • Marco Tremolada Pergolettese · 2026-06-29

Out since 1 May

  • Lhassine Kone Ben Frosinone · 2026-06-29
  • Patrick Cutrone Monza · 2026-06-29
  • Alberto Moreno no club recorded · 2026-06-29
  • Sergi Roberto no club recorded · 2026-06-29
  • Tommaso Cassandro Palermo · 2026-07-02
  • Federico Chinetti Mantova · 2026-07-03
  • Giuseppe Mazzaglia Folgore Caratese · 2026-07-06
  • Jack Fellipe Cremonese · 2026-07-13
  • Yannik Engelhardt Freiburg · 2026-07-16
  • Mergim Vojvoda Udinese · 2026-07-16
  • Cristiano De Paoli Udinese · 2026-06-29
  • Alex Amadio Juventus U20 · 2026-06-29

The six the model leans on most

PlayerPosWhere in 2025/26DivisionMins AppsGARating pct
Nico PazMComoSerie A30543812698
Jacobo RamonDComoSerie A2929352097
Luis MillaMGetafeLa Liga32733711090
Lucas Da CunhaMComoSerie A2865406494
Jean ButezGComoSerie A3606400189
Maximo PerroneMComoSerie A2818393483
AC Milanprojected 71 pts · band 63–80 · 1.73 scored and 0.99 conceded per game · Massimiliano Allegri
squad age (by minutes) 27.5minutes from above 0%from below 0%last season’s minutes retained 100%

Last season those minutes were played in: Serie A 100%.

We project 71 points (63–80), against a division average of 52. Last season: 76 points in Serie A, finishing 4th. What pushes them up: squad quality (+13), the club’s own last season (+4), attacking end (+3) points. Of the 24 men who played for them last season, 21 are still on the list. 10 of the 30 registered players have no season in our data, so the projection is built on the other 20. Squad value on our player feed: €467.4m across 26 players — recorded here for context, it is not in the model.

Points, against the division average

Where it comes fromPts
squad quality+13.3
the club’s own last season+4.1
attacking end+2.7
minutes from the Championship or above-0.5
ball-winning-0.2

In since 1 May

  • Goncalo Ramos PSG · 2026-06-30
  • Alvaro Morata Como · 2026-06-30
  • Ismael Bennacer Din. Zagreb · 2026-06-30
  • Samuel Chukwueze Fulham · 2026-06-30
  • Tommaso Pobega Bologna · 2026-06-30
  • Yunus Musah Atalanta · 2026-06-30
  • Lorenzo Colombo Genoa · 2026-06-30
  • Warren Bondo Cremonese · 2026-06-30
  • Filippo Terracciano Cremonese · 2026-06-30
  • Alejandro Jimenez Bournemouth · 2026-06-30
  • Alphadjo Cisse Catanzaro · 2026-06-30
  • Kevin Zeroli Juve Stabia · 2026-06-30

Out since 1 May

  • Alvaro Morata Como · 2026-07-01
  • Tommaso Pobega Bologna · 2026-07-01
  • Lorenzo Colombo Genoa · 2026-07-01
  • Alejandro Jimenez Bournemouth · 2026-07-01
  • Zachary Athekame Lyon · 2026-08-14
  • Niclas Fullkrug West Ham · 2026-06-30

The six the model leans on most

PlayerPosWhere in 2025/26DivisionMins AppsGARating pct
Luka ModricMAC MilanSerie A2895372399
Alexis SaelemaekersFAC MilanSerie A2829363498
Strahinja PavlovicDAC MilanSerie A2960385195
Adrien RabiotMAC MilanSerie A2581306496
Mike MaignanGAC MilanSerie A3386380091
Matteo GabbiaDAC MilanSerie A2534330084
Juventusprojected 67 pts · band 59–76 · 1.67 scored and 1.08 conceded per game · Luciano Spalletti
squad age (by minutes) 26.3minutes from above 0%from below 2%last season’s minutes retained 96%

Last season those minutes were played in: Serie A 98%.

We project 67 points (59–76), against a division average of 52. Last season: 75 points in Serie A, finishing 6th. What pushes them up: squad quality (+9), the club’s own last season (+4), attacking end (+2) points. Of the 25 men who played for them last season, 21 are still on the list. 8 of the 31 registered players have no season in our data, so the projection is built on the other 23. Squad value on our player feed: €499.5m across 24 players — recorded here for context, it is not in the model.

Points, against the division average

Where it comes fromPts
squad quality+9.3
the club’s own last season+3.8
attacking end+2.3
ball-winning+0.7
minutes from the Championship or above-0.5

In since 1 May

  • Jeff Ekhator Genoa · 2026-06-30
  • Lois Openda RB Leipzig · 2026-06-30
  • Jeremie Boga Nice · 2026-06-30
  • Zeki Celik AS Roma · 2026-07-15
  • Juan Quattrocchi Argentino de Quilmes · 2026-06-29
  • Felipe Pedro Sassuolo · 2026-06-29
  • Gianmarco Di Biase Bra · 2026-06-29
  • Lorenzo Villa Padova · 2026-06-29
  • Giovanni Daffara Avellino · 2026-06-29
  • Facundo Gonzalez Racing Santander · 2026-06-29
  • Jonas Rouhi Carrarese · 2026-06-29
  • Tommaso Mancini Virtus Verona · 2026-06-29

Out since 1 May

  • Juan Quattrocchi Acassuso · 2026-06-29
  • David Puczka Genoa · 2026-06-29
  • Giovanni Daffara Parma · 2026-06-29
  • Facundo Gonzalez Racing Santander · 2026-06-29
  • Alessandro Sersanti Modena · 2026-06-29
  • Mattia Compagnon Venezia · 2026-06-29
  • Timothy Weah Marseille · 2026-06-29
  • Dusan Vlahovic no club recorded · 2026-06-29
  • Filip Kostic no club recorded · 2026-06-29
  • Alessandro Pietrelli L.R. Vicenza · 2026-07-07
  • Gianmarco Di Biase Crawley · 2026-07-08
  • Emil Holm Bologna · 2026-06-29

The six the model leans on most

PlayerPosWhere in 2025/26DivisionMins AppsGARating pct
Manuel LocatelliMJuventusSerie A30953812100
Kenan YildizMJuventusSerie A29073810698
Lloyd KellyDJuventusSerie A3088361190
BremerDJuventusSerie A2265285397
Pierre KaluluDJuventusSerie A3372382483
Andrea CambiasoDJuventusSerie A2815373479
Atalantaprojected 65 pts · band 57–73 · 1.55 scored and 1.06 conceded per game · Raffaele Palladino
squad age (by minutes) 27.1minutes from above 0%from below 0%last season’s minutes retained 97%

Last season those minutes were played in: Serie A 100%.

We project 65 points (57–73), against a division average of 52. Last season: 65 points in Serie A, finishing 7th. What pushes them up: squad quality (+10), ball-winning (+2), attacking end (+1) points. Of the 25 men who played for them last season, 22 are still on the list. 9 of the 30 registered players have no season in our data, so the projection is built on the other 21. Squad value on our player feed: €399.5m across 25 players — recorded here for context, it is not in the model.

Points, against the division average

Where it comes fromPts
squad quality+9.6
ball-winning+1.8
attacking end+1.3
the club’s own last season+1.0
minutes from the Championship or above-0.5

In since 1 May

  • Marco Brescianini Fiorentina · 2026-06-30
  • Bilal Toure El Besiktas · 2026-06-30
  • Daniel Maldini Lazio · 2026-06-30
  • Marco Palestra Cagliari · 2026-06-30
  • Ibrahim Sulemana Cagliari · 2026-06-30
  • Siren Balde Mirandes · 2026-06-30
  • Leonardo Mendicino Reggiana · 2026-06-30
  • Ben Godfrey Rangers · 2027-06-30
  • Giorgio Cittadini Frosinone · 2027-06-30

Out since 1 May

  • Ben Godfrey Rangers · 2026-07-01
  • Marco Brescianini Fiorentina · 2026-07-01
  • Giorgio Cittadini Frosinone · 2026-07-12
  • Yunus Musah AC Milan · 2026-06-30

The six the model leans on most

PlayerPosWhere in 2025/26DivisionMins AppsGARating pct
Marco CarnesecchiGAtalantaSerie A3330380093
Charles De KetelaereFAtalantaSerie A2188313599
Marten de RoonMAtalantaSerie A2704351289
Giorgio ScalviniDAtalantaSerie A1817293195
Berat DjimsitiDAtalantaSerie A2533350081
EdersonMAtalantaSerie A2235332185
Napoliprojected 58 pts · band 49–66 · 1.57 scored and 1.33 conceded per game · Massimiliano Allegri
squad age (by minutes) 28.4minutes from above 0%from below 0%last season’s minutes retained 85%

Last season those minutes were played in: Serie A 100%.

We project 58 points (49–66), against a division average of 52. Last season: 79 points in Serie A, finishing 3rd. What pushes them up: the club’s own last season (+5), attacking end (+2), squad quality (+1) points. What pulls them down: ball-winning (-1) points. Of the 28 men who played for them last season, 21 are still on the list. 6 of the 29 registered players have no season in our data, so the projection is built on the other 23. Squad value on our player feed: €416.4m across 28 players — recorded here for context, it is not in the model.

Points, against the division average

Where it comes fromPts
the club’s own last season+4.9
attacking end+1.8
ball-winning-1.1
squad quality+0.6
minutes from the Championship or above-0.5

In since 1 May

  • Santos Alisson Sporting CP · 2026-06-30
  • Rasmus Hojlund Manchester Utd · 2026-06-30
  • Vanja Milinkovic-Savic Torino · 2026-06-30
  • Gianluca Vigliotti Pineto · 2026-06-29
  • Emanuele Rao Bari · 2026-06-29
  • Luigi D'Avino Giugliano · 2026-06-29
  • Claudio Turi Altamura · 2026-06-29
  • Luca Marianucci Torino · 2026-06-29
  • Pasquale Marranzino Sambenedettese · 2026-06-29
  • Giuseppe Ambrosino Modena · 2026-06-29
  • Gennaro Iaccarino Arezzo · 2026-06-29
  • Coli Saco Casertana · 2026-06-29

Out since 1 May

  • Alessandro Zanoli Udinese · 2026-06-29
  • Giovanni Simeone Torino · 2026-06-29
  • Jesus Juan no club recorded · 2026-06-29
  • Mathias Ferrante Ospitaletto · 2026-07-15
  • Andrea Caucci Ascoli · 2026-06-29
  • Santos Alisson Sporting CP · 2026-06-29
  • Rasmus Hojlund Manchester Utd · 2026-06-29
  • Eljif Elmas RB Leipzig · 2026-06-29
  • Vanja Milinkovic-Savic Torino · 2026-06-29

The six the model leans on most

PlayerPosWhere in 2025/26DivisionMins AppsGARating pct
Amir RrahmaniDNapoliSerie A19542622100
Scott McTominayMNapoliSerie A29133510388
Stanislav LobotkaMNapoliSerie A2595341180
Leonardo SpinazzolaDNapoliSerie A2006363391
Matteo PolitanoFNapoliSerie A2367362582
Giovanni Di LorenzoDNapoliSerie A2432292172
Lazioprojected 51 pts · band 43–59 · 1.31 scored and 1.33 conceded per game · Maurizio Sarri
squad age (by minutes) 27.8minutes from above 0%from below 5%last season’s minutes retained 93%

Last season those minutes were played in: Serie A 95%, Serie B 5%.

We project 51 points (43–59), against a division average of 52. Last season: 60 points in Serie A, finishing 8th. What pushes them up: squad quality (+1) points. What pulls them down: ball-winning (-1) points. Of the 27 men who played for them last season, 24 are still on the list. 10 of the 33 registered players have no season in our data, so the projection is built on the other 23. Squad value on our player feed: €211.5m across 25 players — recorded here for context, it is not in the model.

Points, against the division average

Where it comes fromPts
ball-winning-0.8
squad quality+0.8
minutes from the Championship or above-0.5
the club’s own last season-0.4
attacking end+0.0

In since 1 May

  • Gabriele Artistico Spezia · 2026-06-30
  • Romano Floriani Cremonese · 2026-06-30
  • Christos Mandas Bournemouth · 2026-06-30
  • A. Milani Avellino · 2026-07-01

Out since 1 May

  • Toma Basic Venezia · 2026-07-01
  • Boulaye Dia Salernitana · 2026-06-30
  • Daniel Maldini Atalanta · 2026-06-30

The six the model leans on most

PlayerPosWhere in 2025/26DivisionMins AppsGARating pct
Mario GilaDLazioSerie A2482310098
Alessio RomagnoliDLazioSerie A2667340087
Mattia ZaccagniFLazioSerie A2308293088
Ivan ProvedelGLazioSerie A2430270084
Matteo CancellieriFLazioSerie A1847334280
Oliver ProvstgaardDLazioSerie A1738400081
Bolognaprojected 48 pts · band 40–57 · 1.29 scored and 1.39 conceded per game
squad age (by minutes) 26.2minutes from above 5%from below 4%last season’s minutes retained 85%

Last season those minutes were played in: Serie A 91%, La Liga 5%.

We project 48 points (40–57), against a division average of 52. Last season: 56 points in Serie A, finishing 9th. What pushes them up: attacking end (+1) points. What pulls them down: squad quality (-3), the club’s own last season (-2) points. Of the 29 men who played for them last season, 21 are still on the list. 5 of the 30 registered players have no season in our data, so the projection is built on the other 25. Squad value on our player feed: €254.3m across 27 players — recorded here for context, it is not in the model.

Points, against the division average

Where it comes fromPts
squad quality-3.2
the club’s own last season-1.6
attacking end+1.2
minutes from the Championship or above-0.5
ball-winning+0.3

In since 1 May

  • Luigi Caccavo Lumezzane · 2026-06-30
  • Tommaso Pobega AC Milan · 2026-06-30
  • Rahim Alhassane Oviedo · 2026-07-20
  • Marco Fiaschi Scandicci · 2026-06-29
  • Giuseppe Battimelli Trapani · 2026-06-29
  • Manuel Rosetti Carpi · 2026-06-29
  • Lorenzo Menegazzo Foggia · 2026-06-29
  • Gennaro Anatriello Lumezzane · 2026-06-29
  • Francesco Raffaelli Alcione Milano · 2026-06-29
  • Mihajlo Ilic Anderlecht · 2026-06-29
  • Davide Franzini Bra · 2026-06-29
  • Tommaso Corazza Cesena · 2026-06-29

Out since 1 May

  • Giovanni Fabbian Fiorentina · 2026-06-29
  • Bodin Tomasevic Mantova · 2026-06-30
  • Tommaso Corazza L.R. Vicenza · 2026-06-30
  • Michel Aebischer Pisa · 2026-07-01
  • Wisdom Amey Frosinone · 2026-07-06
  • Petar Markovic Grazer AK · 2026-07-07
  • Giuseppe Battimelli Lecco · 2026-07-12
  • Mattia Motolese Entella · 2026-07-13
  • Manuel Rosetti Forli · 2026-07-15
  • Riccardo Stivanello Sudtirol · 2026-07-15
  • Niklas Pyyhtia Sudtirol · 2026-07-15
  • Lorenzo Menegazzo Lumezzane · 2026-07-16

The six the model leans on most

PlayerPosWhere in 2025/26DivisionMins AppsGARating pct
Jhon LucumiDBolognaSerie A2300331092
Juan MirandaDBolognaSerie A2670351386
Nikola MoroMBolognaSerie A1797391095
Riccardo OrsoliniMBolognaSerie A21913810170
Santiago CastroFBolognaSerie A2365387261
Nicolo CambiaghiMBolognaSerie A1590323481
Sassuoloprojected 47 pts · band 39–56 · 1.20 scored and 1.35 conceded per game
squad age (by minutes) 26.9minutes from above 0%from below 8%last season’s minutes retained 79%

Last season those minutes were played in: Serie A 92%, Serie B 8%.

We project 47 points (39–56), against a division average of 52. Last season: 52 points in Serie A, finishing 11th. What pulls them down: the club’s own last season (-3), ball-winning (-1) points. Of the 28 men who played for them last season, 18 are still on the list. 10 of the 26 registered players have no season in our data, so the projection is built on the other 16. Squad value on our player feed: €188.3m across 27 players — recorded here for context, it is not in the model.

Points, against the division average

Where it comes fromPts
the club’s own last season-2.7
ball-winning-1.1
attacking end-0.5
minutes from the Championship or above-0.5
squad quality+0.1

In since 1 May

  • Sebastian Walukiewicz Torino · 2026-06-30
  • Arijanet Muric Ipswich · 2026-06-30
  • Borna Knezovic Trapani · 2026-06-29
  • Patrick Nuamah Catanzaro · 2026-06-29
  • Simone Cinquegrano Inter · 2026-06-29
  • Kevin Miranda Trento · 2026-06-29
  • Kevin Bruno Crotone · 2026-06-29
  • Flavio Russo Pescara · 2026-06-29
  • Kevin Leone Casertana · 2026-06-29
  • Justin Kumi Avellino · 2026-06-29
  • Luca D'Andrea Avellino · 2026-06-29
  • Filippo Missori Avellino · 2026-06-29

Out since 1 May

  • Tressoldi Ruan Atletico-MG · 2026-06-29
  • Giacomo Satalino no club recorded · 2026-06-29
  • Filippo Romagna no club recorded · 2026-06-29
  • Emerick Lopes Alcione Milano · 2026-07-13
  • Tarik Muharemovic Leeds · 2026-07-15
  • Janis Antiste Gornik Zabrze · 2026-08-15
  • Felipe Pedro Juventus · 2026-06-29
  • Briajan Gjyla Brescia · 2026-06-29
  • Alieu Fadera Como · 2026-06-29
  • Aster Vranckx Wolfsburg · 2026-06-29
  • Woyo Coulibaly Leicester · 2026-06-29
  • Sebastian Walukiewicz Torino · 2026-06-29

The six the model leans on most

PlayerPosWhere in 2025/26DivisionMins AppsGARating pct
Arijanet MuricGSassuoloSerie A2970390087
Armand LaurienteFSassuoloSerie A2704397990
Ismael KoneMSassuoloSerie A2756366088
Domenico BerardiFSassuoloSerie A1988279496
Nemanja MaticMSassuoloSerie A2758351182
Kristian ThorstvedtMSassuoloSerie A2488334475
Udineseprojected 44 pts · band 36–53 · 1.18 scored and 1.48 conceded per game · Kosta Runjaic
squad age (by minutes) 26.3minutes from above 2%from below 18%last season’s minutes retained 86%

Last season those minutes were played in: Serie A 80%, the Championship 11%, Serie B 4%.

We project 44 points (36–53), against a division average of 52. Last season: 54 points in Serie A, finishing 10th. What pushes them up: minutes from the Championship or above (+1) points. What pulls them down: squad quality (-5), the club’s own last season (-2), attacking end (-1) points. Of the 27 men who played for them last season, 22 are still on the list. 6 of the 34 registered players have no season in our data, so the projection is built on the other 28. Squad value on our player feed: €185.1m across 34 players — recorded here for context, it is not in the model.

Points, against the division average

Where it comes fromPts
squad quality-5.5
the club’s own last season-2.1
minutes from the Championship or above+1.0
attacking end-0.8
ball-winning-0.1

In since 1 May

  • Idrissa Gueye Metz · 2026-06-30
  • Alessandro Zanoli Napoli · 2026-06-30
  • Nicolo Zaniolo Galatasaray · 2026-06-30
  • I. Gueye Metz · 2026-07-01
  • Giorgi Chakvetadze Watford · 2026-07-05
  • Unai Gomez Ath Bilbao · 2026-07-07
  • Haktab Traore Omar Heidenheim · 2026-07-08
  • Mergim Vojvoda Como · 2026-07-17
  • Cristiano De Paoli Como · 2026-06-29
  • Matteo Palma Sampdoria · 2026-06-29
  • David Pejicic Maribor · 2026-06-29
  • Iker Bravo Las Palmas · 2026-06-29

Out since 1 May

  • Razvan Sava Univ. Craiova · 2026-06-29
  • Kingsley Ehizibue no club recorded · 2026-06-29
  • Alessandro Nunziante Arezzo · 2026-06-30
  • Arthur Atta Fiorentina · 2026-07-09
  • Haktab Traore Omar Watford · 2026-07-14
  • Iker Bravo Watford · 2026-07-24
  • Idrissa Gueye Metz · 2026-06-29
  • Alessandro Zanoli Napoli · 2026-06-29
  • Nicolo Zaniolo Galatasaray · 2026-06-29

The six the model leans on most

PlayerPosWhere in 2025/26DivisionMins AppsGARating pct
Oumar SoletDUdineseSerie A3147383198
Keinan DavisFUdineseSerie A21473110489
Thomas KristensenDUdineseSerie A2475303082
Jurgen EkkelenkampFUdineseSerie A2378376482
Nicolo ZanioloFUdineseSerie A2359335678
Jesper KarlstromMUdineseSerie A3338381059
Veneziaprojected 44 pts · band 36–53 · 1.29 scored and 1.59 conceded per game · Giovanni Stroppa
squad age (by minutes) 25.4minutes from above 8%from below 84%last season’s minutes retained 81%

Last season those minutes were played in: Serie B 75%, La Liga 8%, Serie A 7%, the Belgian Pro League 4%.

We project 44 points (36–53), against a division average of 52. Last season: 82 points in Serie B, finishing 1st. What pushes them up: the club’s own last season (+3), minutes from the Championship or above (+1) points. What pulls them down: squad quality (-7), ball-winning (-4), attacking end (-1) points. Of the 24 men who played for them last season, 20 are still on the list. 9 of the 35 registered players have no season in our data, so the projection is built on the other 26. Squad value on our player feed: €88.0m across 29 players — recorded here for context, it is not in the model.

Points, against the division average

Where it comes fromPts
squad quality-6.7
ball-winning-4.1
the club’s own last season+2.9
minutes from the Championship or above+0.9
attacking end-0.9

In since 1 May

  • Lorenzo Berardi Pescara · 2026-06-30
  • Kornel Lisman Lech Poznan · 2026-06-30
  • Mattia Compagnon Juventus · 2026-06-30
  • Armel Bella-Kotchap Verona · 2026-06-30
  • Johann Helgason Thorir Lecce · 2026-06-30
  • Bartol Franjic Wolfsburg · 2026-06-30
  • Thierry Rendall Valencia · 2026-06-30
  • Toma Basic Lazio · 2026-06-30
  • Ale Gomes Zaragoza · 2026-07-08
  • Albion Rrahmani Sparta Prague · 2026-07-08
  • Alessio Pozzi Vis Pesaro · 2026-07-10
  • Akor Adams Sevilla · 2026-07-21

Out since 1 May

  • Issa Doumbia Sporting CP · 2026-06-29
  • Michael Svoboda Brighton · 2026-06-29
  • Marco Ladisa Trento · 2026-07-07
  • Gaetano Oristanio Torino · 2026-07-08
  • Alessandro Plizzari Sudtirol · 2026-07-09
  • Seid Korac Verona · 2026-07-10
  • Kevin Cannavo Spezia · 2026-07-12
  • Cheick Conde no club recorded · 2026-07-14
  • Giovanni Di Renzo Pineto · 2026-07-19
  • Daniel Fila Avellino · 2026-07-20
  • Vincenzo Damiano Atalanta U19 · 2026-06-29
  • Oleksandr Dragan no club recorded · 2026-06-29

The six the model leans on most

PlayerPosWhere in 2025/26DivisionMins AppsGARating pct
Gianluca BusioMVeneziaSerie B3210377499
Filip StankovicGVeneziaSerie B3427380098
John YeboahFVeneziaSerie B26143510999
Kike PerezMVeneziaSerie B2752373796
Antoine HainautMVeneziaSerie B3049385588
Akor AdamsFSevillaLa Liga20703310365
Fiorentinaprojected 44 pts · band 35–52 · 1.07 scored and 1.36 conceded per game · Fabio Grosso
squad age (by minutes) 26.3minutes from above 7%from below 0%last season’s minutes retained 80%

Last season those minutes were played in: Serie A 93%, the Premier League 7%.

We project 44 points (35–52), against a division average of 52. Last season: 42 points in Serie A, finishing 15th. What pulls them down: the club’s own last season (-6), ball-winning (-1), attacking end (-1) points. Of the 31 men who played for them last season, 17 are still on the list. 14 of the 33 registered players have no season in our data, so the projection is built on the other 19. Squad value on our player feed: €304.0m across 28 players — recorded here for context, it is not in the model.

Points, against the division average

Where it comes fromPts
the club’s own last season-5.5
ball-winning-1.3
attacking end-1.0
minutes from the Championship or above-0.5
squad quality-0.1

In since 1 May

  • Viery Gremio · 2026-06-30
  • Giovanni Fabbian Bologna · 2026-06-30
  • Marco Brescianini Atalanta · 2026-06-30
  • Radu Dragusin Tottenham · 2026-07-07
  • Arthur Atta Udinese · 2026-07-10
  • Alejandro Jimenez Bournemouth · 2026-07-12
  • Christ Inao Oulai Trabzonspor · 2026-07-18
  • Matias Moreno Levante · 2026-06-29
  • Maat Caprini Mantova · 2026-06-29
  • Jonas Harder Padova · 2026-06-29
  • Leonardo Baroncelli Gubbio · 2026-06-29
  • Tommaso Vannucchi Cosenza · 2026-06-29

Out since 1 May

  • Pietro Leonardelli no club recorded · 2026-06-29
  • Lucas Beltran River Plate · 2026-06-30
  • Lorenzo Lucchesi Monza · 2026-07-01
  • Leonardo Baroncelli Gubbio · 2026-07-02
  • Eddy Kouadio Monza · 2026-07-07
  • Francesco Presta Follonica Gavorrano · 2026-07-07
  • Lorenzo Amatucci Dep. A Coruna · 2026-07-07
  • Lorenzo Romani Carrarese · 2026-07-09
  • Tommaso Martinelli Avellino · 2026-07-09
  • Jonas Harder Basel · 2026-07-12
  • Jacopo Fazzini Cagliari · 2026-07-12
  • Maat Caprini Cesena · 2026-07-13

The six the model leans on most

PlayerPosWhere in 2025/26DivisionMins AppsGARating pct
Nicolo FagioliMFiorentinaSerie A2599382396
DodoDFiorentinaSerie A3139371289
Rolando MandragoraMFiorentinaSerie A2463367387
Arthur AttaMUdineseSerie A2563325374
Luca RanieriDFiorentinaSerie A2479371075
David de GeaGFiorentinaSerie A3426390058
Frosinoneprojected 43 pts · band 35–52 · 1.28 scored and 1.58 conceded per game · Massimiliano Alvini
squad age (by minutes) 24.0minutes from above 0%from below 100%last season’s minutes retained 87%

Last season those minutes were played in: Serie B 93%, the 2. Bundesliga 7%.

We project 43 points (35–52), against a division average of 52. Last season: 78 points in Serie B, finishing 2nd. What pushes them up: the club’s own last season (+2) points. What pulls them down: squad quality (-8), ball-winning (-2) points. Of the 24 men who played for them last season, 17 are still on the list. 6 of the 24 registered players have no season in our data, so the projection is built on the other 18. Squad value on our player feed: €51.9m across 25 players — recorded here for context, it is not in the model.

Points, against the division average

Where it comes fromPts
squad quality-8.2
the club’s own last season+2.4
ball-winning-1.8
attacking end-0.5
minutes from the Championship or above-0.5

In since 1 May

  • Lhassine Kone Ben Como · 2026-06-30
  • Giacomo Calo Cesena · 2026-06-30
  • Wisdom Amey Bologna · 2026-07-06
  • Gabriele Calvani Genoa · 2026-07-11
  • Seydou Fini Genoa · 2026-07-11
  • Giorgio Cittadini Atalanta · 2026-07-11
  • Anouar El Azzouzi Dusseldorf · 2026-07-12
  • Sebastiano Desplanches Palermo · 2026-07-17
  • Alessandro Selvini Forli · 2026-06-29
  • Davide Biraschi Karagumruk · 2026-06-29

Out since 1 May

  • Alessandro Selvini Pineto · 2026-06-29
  • Edoardo Vergani no club recorded · 2026-06-29
  • Sergio Kalaj Laci · 2026-06-29
  • Edoardo Masciangelo no club recorded · 2026-06-29
  • Riccardo Marchizza L.R. Vicenza · 2026-06-29
  • Matteo Pisseri no club recorded · 2026-06-29
  • Lorenzo Gori Grosseto · 2026-07-13
  • Gabriele Calvani Genoa · 2026-06-29
  • Seydou Fini Genoa · 2026-06-29
  • Antonio Raimondo Bologna · 2026-06-29
  • Antonio Fiori Mantova · 2026-06-29
  • Giorgio Cittadini Atalanta · 2026-06-29

The six the model leans on most

PlayerPosWhere in 2025/26DivisionMins AppsGARating pct
Giacomo CaloMFrosinoneSerie B3104361015100
Fares GhedjemisFFrosinoneSerie B29523715399
Lorenzo PalmisaniGFrosinoneSerie B3332370091
Ilario MonterisiDFrosinoneSerie B1962252593
Gabriele CalvaniDFrosinoneSerie B2715351183
Anthony OyonoDFrosinoneSerie B2729331478
Genoaprojected 42 pts · band 34–51 · 1.03 scored and 1.40 conceded per game · Daniele De Rossi
squad age (by minutes) 25.2minutes from above 0%from below 7%last season’s minutes retained 77%

Last season those minutes were played in: Serie A 93%, the Primeira Liga 5%.

We project 42 points (34–51), against a division average of 52. Last season: 41 points in Serie A, finishing 16th. What pushes them up: ball-winning (+2) points. What pulls them down: the club’s own last season (-6), squad quality (-4), attacking end (-2) points. Of the 27 men who played for them last season, 14 are still on the list. 18 of the 33 registered players have no season in our data, so the projection is built on the other 15. Squad value on our player feed: €142.5m across 26 players — recorded here for context, it is not in the model.

Points, against the division average

Where it comes fromPts
the club’s own last season-5.8
squad quality-3.9
ball-winning+2.4
attacking end-2.0
minutes from the Championship or above-0.5

In since 1 May

  • Samuel Wiafe Modena · 2026-06-30
  • Franz-Ethan Meichtry Thun · 2026-06-30
  • Marcelo Vaz Varesina · 2026-06-30
  • David Puczka Juventus · 2026-06-30
  • Lorenzo Colombo AC Milan · 2026-06-30
  • Elias Havel Hartberg · 2026-07-09
  • Lorenzo Venturino AS Roma · 2026-06-29
  • Alessandro Debenedetti Entella · 2026-06-29
  • Lorenzo Gagliardi Pineto · 2026-06-29
  • Matteo Barbini Dolomiti Bellunesi · 2026-06-29
  • Edoardo Meconi Pergolettese · 2026-06-29
  • Tommaso Pittino Dolomiti Bellunesi · 2026-06-29

Out since 1 May

  • Jeff Ekhator Juventus · 2026-06-29
  • Messias Junior no club recorded · 2026-06-29
  • Daniele Sommariva no club recorded · 2026-06-29
  • Caleb Ekuban no club recorded · 2026-06-29
  • Ruslan Malinovskyi Trabzonspor · 2026-06-29
  • Leonardo Consiglio Modena · 2026-06-30
  • David Ankeye Zeleznicar Pancevo · 2026-07-02
  • Edoardo Meconi Gubbio · 2026-07-06
  • Lorenzo Gagliardi Altamura · 2026-07-07
  • Gabriele Calvani Frosinone · 2026-07-11
  • Seydou Fini Frosinone · 2026-07-11
  • Nils Zatterstrom Sheffield Utd · 2026-06-29

The six the model leans on most

PlayerPosWhere in 2025/26DivisionMins AppsGARating pct
Leo OstigardDGenoaSerie A2784345199
Morten FrendrupFGenoaSerie A3250381085
Aaron MartinDGenoaSerie A2185401583
Johan VasquezDGenoaSerie A3359401059
VitinhaFGenoaSerie A2381395172
Brooke Norton-CuffyMGenoaSerie A2375302163
Cagliariprojected 41 pts · band 33–49 · 1.06 scored and 1.54 conceded per game · Fabio Pisacane
squad age (by minutes) 25.0minutes from above 2%from below 19%last season’s minutes retained 66%

Last season those minutes were played in: Serie A 80%, the Championship 8%, the Eerste Divisie 6%, Serie B 5%.

We project 41 points (33–49), against a division average of 52. Last season: 46 points in Serie A, finishing 12th. What pushes them up: minutes from the Championship or above (+2), ball-winning (+1) points. What pulls them down: squad quality (-8), the club’s own last season (-4), attacking end (-2) points. Of the 26 men who played for them last season, 15 are still on the list. 12 of the 32 registered players have no season in our data, so the projection is built on the other 20. Squad value on our player feed: €138.7m across 27 players — recorded here for context, it is not in the model.

Points, against the division average

Where it comes fromPts
squad quality-7.6
the club’s own last season-4.4
minutes from the Championship or above+2.4
attacking end-2.3
ball-winning+0.9

In since 1 May

  • Alessandro Romano AS Roma · 2026-06-30
  • Sebastiano Esposito Inter · 2026-06-30
  • Ademide Akarakiri Everton · 2026-07-02
  • Jacopo Fazzini Fiorentina · 2026-07-12
  • Harry Winks Leicester · 2026-07-14
  • Kingstone Mutandwa Ried · 2026-06-29
  • Sebastiano Di Paolo Siracusa · 2026-06-29
  • Francesco Gallea Lumezzane · 2026-06-29
  • Velizar-Iliya Iliev Audace Cerignola · 2026-06-29
  • Nicola Pintus Cosenza · 2026-06-29
  • Davide Veroli Palermo · 2026-06-29
  • Alessandro Vinciguerra Monopoli · 2026-06-29

Out since 1 May

  • Kingstone Mutandwa Ried · 2026-06-29
  • Antoni Franke Dukla Prague · 2026-06-29
  • Nik Prelec Oxford Utd · 2026-06-29
  • Andrea Belotti no club recorded · 2026-06-29
  • Leonardo Pavoletti no club recorded · 2026-06-29
  • Gianluca Gaetano Atalanta · 2026-07-07
  • Alessandro Vinciguerra Audace Cerignola · 2026-07-14
  • Szymon Roguski no club recorded · 2026-06-29
  • Marco Palestra Atalanta · 2026-06-29
  • Ibrahim Sulemana Atalanta · 2026-06-29
  • Semih Kilicsoy Besiktas · 2026-06-29
  • Sebastiano Esposito Inter · 2026-06-29

The six the model leans on most

PlayerPosWhere in 2025/26DivisionMins AppsGARating pct
Sebastiano EspositoFCagliariSerie A2699377591
Adam ObertDCagliariSerie A2939380376
Elia CaprileGCagliariSerie A3571400073
Yerry MinaDCagliariSerie A2153302088
Harry WinksMLeicesterthe Championship2489341288
Gennaro BorrelliFCagliariSerie A1285315165
Parmaprojected 38 pts · band 30–47 · 0.98 scored and 1.53 conceded per game · Carlos Cuesta
squad age (by minutes) 24.3minutes from above 0%from below 5%last season’s minutes retained 94%

Last season those minutes were played in: Serie A 95%.

We project 38 points (30–47), against a division average of 52. Last season: 45 points in Serie A, finishing 14th. What pushes them up: minutes from the Championship or above (+1) points. What pulls them down: squad quality (-7), the club’s own last season (-5), attacking end (-3) points. Of the 29 men who played for them last season, 23 are still on the list. 10 of the 32 registered players have no season in our data, so the projection is built on the other 22. Squad value on our player feed: €159.8m across 23 players — recorded here for context, it is not in the model.

Points, against the division average

Where it comes fromPts
squad quality-6.6
the club’s own last season-4.7
attacking end-3.2
minutes from the Championship or above+1.0
ball-winning-0.0

In since 1 May

  • Benjamin Cremaschi Inter Miami · 2026-07-01
  • Franco Carboni Inter · 2026-07-02
  • Anthony Partipilo Bari · 2026-06-30
  • Adrian Benedyczak Kasimpasa · 2026-06-30
  • Botond Balogh Kocaelispor · 2026-06-30
  • Tjas Begic Sampdoria · 2026-06-30
  • Rachid Kouda Mantova · 2026-06-30
  • Antoine Joujou Famalicao · 2026-06-30

Out since 1 May

  • Nahuel Estevez Palermo · 2026-07-01
  • Tjas Begic Sampdoria · 2026-07-01
  • Gabriel Strefezza Olympiacos Piraeus · 2026-06-30
  • Hans Nicolussi Caviglia Venezia · 2026-06-30
  • Gaetano Oristanio Venezia · 2026-06-30
  • Benjamin Cremaschi Inter Miami · 2026-06-30
  • Franco Carboni Inter · 2026-06-30

The six the model leans on most

PlayerPosWhere in 2025/26DivisionMins AppsGARating pct
Alessandro CircatiDParmaSerie A2666321092
Adrian Bernabe GarciaMParmaSerie A2554333192
Mandela KeitaMParmaSerie A3060381182
Emanuele ValeriDParmaSerie A2706350276
Mateo PellegrinoFParmaSerie A2991379162
Lautaro ValentiDParmaSerie A2251320074
Torinoprojected 37 pts · band 29–45 · 1.04 scored and 1.57 conceded per game · Ignazio Abate
squad age (by minutes) 27.0minutes from above 0%from below 11%last season’s minutes retained 69%

Last season those minutes were played in: Serie A 89%, Serie B 9%.

We project 37 points (29–45), against a division average of 52. Last season: 45 points in Serie A, finishing 13th. What pulls them down: squad quality (-9), the club’s own last season (-5), attacking end (-1) points. Of the 30 men who played for them last season, 19 are still on the list. 4 of the 25 registered players have no season in our data, so the projection is built on the other 21. Squad value on our player feed: €128.1m across 28 players — recorded here for context, it is not in the model.

Points, against the division average

Where it comes fromPts
squad quality-9.4
the club’s own last season-4.7
attacking end-0.7
ball-winning-0.4
minutes from the Championship or above+0.4

In since 1 May

  • Faustino Anjorin Empoli · 2026-06-30
  • Sandro Kulenovic Din. Zagreb · 2026-06-30
  • Giovanni Simeone Napoli · 2026-06-30
  • Gaetano Oristanio Venezia · 2026-07-08
  • Diego Mascardi Spezia · 2026-07-15
  • Arthur Spadoni Avellino · 2026-06-29
  • Noel Csorba Samorin · 2026-06-29
  • Matteo Bonadiman Legnago Salus · 2026-06-29
  • Come Bianay Balcot Mantova · 2026-06-29
  • Jonathan Silva Padova · 2026-06-29
  • Dimitrianos Tzouliou Karmiotissa · 2026-06-29
  • Marco Dalla Vecchia Entella · 2026-06-29

Out since 1 May

  • Arthur Spadoni Avellino · 2026-06-29
  • Demyan Yesin Fratria · 2026-06-29
  • Matteo Bonadiman Legnago Salus · 2026-06-29
  • Zanos Savva no club recorded · 2026-06-29
  • Saba Sazonov no club recorded · 2026-06-29
  • Jonathan Silva Mantova · 2026-06-30
  • Guillermo Maripan Internacional · 2026-07-01
  • Vanja Milinkovic-Savic Napoli · 2026-07-01
  • Perr Schuurs Nijmegen · 2026-07-01
  • Sebastian Walukiewicz Sassuolo · 2026-07-01
  • Sergiu Perciun Ascoli · 2026-07-08
  • Jacopo Antolini Pergolettese · 2026-07-16

The six the model leans on most

PlayerPosWhere in 2025/26DivisionMins AppsGARating pct
Nikola VlasicMTorinoSerie A3143388375
Alberto PaleariGTorinoSerie A2610390080
Saul CocoDTorinoSerie A3180371170
Giovanni SimeoneFTorinoSerie A23183511066
Ardian IsmajliDTorinoSerie A1938260171
Cesare CasadeiMTorinoSerie A1990376064
Monzaprojected 32 pts · band 24–41 · 1.04 scored and 1.77 conceded per game · Ivan Juric
squad age (by minutes) 27.7minutes from above 0%from below 100%last season’s minutes retained 75%

Last season those minutes were played in: Serie B 100%.

We project 32 points (24–41), against a division average of 52. Last season: 76 points in Serie B, finishing 3rd. What pushes them up: the club’s own last season (+1) points. What pulls them down: squad quality (-15), attacking end (-4), ball-winning (-2) points. Of the 27 men who played for them last season, 17 are still on the list. 8 of the 24 registered players have no season in our data, so the projection is built on the other 16. Squad value on our player feed: €45.8m across 24 players — recorded here for context, it is not in the model.

Points, against the division average

Where it comes fromPts
squad quality-14.7
attacking end-3.5
ball-winning-2.0
the club’s own last season+1.1
minutes from the Championship or above-0.5

In since 1 May

  • Foe Ondoa Estoril · 2026-06-30
  • Lorenzo Lucchesi Fiorentina · 2026-06-30
  • Patrick Cutrone Como · 2026-06-30
  • Eddy Kouadio Fiorentina · 2026-07-07
  • Solomon Loubao Sochaux · 2026-06-29
  • Kevin Martins Sambenedettese · 2026-06-29
  • Alessandro Berretta Giana Erminio · 2026-06-29
  • Alessandro Sorrentino Padova · 2026-06-29

Out since 1 May

  • Alessandro Sorrentino Padova · 2026-06-29
  • Hernani Palermo · 2026-07-04
  • Daniel Dentello Azzi Paulo Modena · 2026-07-09
  • Samuele Capolupo Spezia · 2026-07-13
  • Luca Ravanelli Sampdoria · 2026-07-16
  • Mirko Maric Lok. Zagreb · 2026-07-20
  • Arvid Brorsson Rakow · 2026-08-18
  • Matic Drobnic Radomlje · 2026-06-29
  • Lorenzo Lucchesi Fiorentina · 2026-06-29
  • Agustin Alvarez Sassuolo · 2026-06-29
  • Giuseppe Caso Modena · 2026-06-29
  • Patrick Cutrone Como · 2026-06-29

The six the model leans on most

PlayerPosWhere in 2025/26DivisionMins AppsGARating pct
Matteo PessinaMMonzaSerie B2913355195
Pedro ObiangMMonzaSerie B2340362189
Samuele BirindelliDMonzaSerie B2632335281
Demba ThiamGMonzaSerie B3426380074
Andrea CarboniDMonzaSerie B2212351283
Andrea ColpaniMMonzaSerie B1316312193
Lecceprojected 30 pts · band 21–38 · 0.86 scored and 1.72 conceded per game · Eusebio Di Francesco
squad age (by minutes) 25.5minutes from above 0%from below 13%last season’s minutes retained 78%

Last season those minutes were played in: Serie A 87%, the Belgian Pro League 4%, Serie B 3%.

We project 30 points (21–38), against a division average of 52. Last season: 41 points in Serie A, finishing 17th. What pushes them up: ball-winning (+2), minutes from the Championship or above (+1) points. What pulls them down: squad quality (-15), the club’s own last season (-6), attacking end (-4) points. Of the 27 men who played for them last season, 18 are still on the list. 10 of the 27 registered players have no season in our data, so the projection is built on the other 17. Squad value on our player feed: €76.1m across 25 players — recorded here for context, it is not in the model.

Points, against the division average

Where it comes fromPts
squad quality-15.2
the club’s own last season-5.8
attacking end-3.6
ball-winning+1.7
minutes from the Championship or above+0.9

In since 1 May

  • Christ-Owen Kouassi Laval · 2026-06-29
  • Marlon Ubani Cavese · 2026-06-29
  • Matteo Agrimi A.C.D. Nardo · 2026-06-29
  • Milos Jovic IMT Novi Beograd · 2026-06-29
  • Sebastian Esposito Melbourne Victory · 2026-06-29
  • Vernon Addo Krasava · 2026-06-29
  • Rares Burnete Juve Stabia · 2026-06-29
  • Ed McJannet Ternana · 2026-06-29
  • Mohamed Kaba Nantes · 2026-06-29
  • Alexandru Borbei Foggia · 2026-06-29
  • Youssef Maleh Cremonese · 2026-06-29

Out since 1 May

  • Konan Ndri no club recorded · 2026-06-02
  • Jason Kodor FC Rapid Bucuresti · 2026-06-29
  • Giacomo Faticanti Juventus U23 · 2026-06-29
  • Johann Helgason Thorir Venezia · 2026-06-29
  • Ylber Ramadani Corum · 2026-07-03
  • Matteo Agrimi Flaminia · 2026-07-12
  • Filip Marchwinski Cracovia · 2026-07-17
  • Bertram Skovgaard Aalborg · 2026-06-29
  • Francesco Camarda AC Milan · 2026-06-29
  • Walid Cheddira Napoli · 2026-06-29
  • Riccardo Sottil Fiorentina · 2026-06-29

The six the model leans on most

PlayerPosWhere in 2025/26DivisionMins AppsGARating pct
Gabriel TiagoDLecceSerie A3281393079
Wladimiro FalconeGLecceSerie A3606400067
Lassana CoulibalyMLecceSerie A2881363256
Antonino GalloDLecceSerie A3103390450
Danilo VeigaMLecceSerie A3208390150
Jamil SiebertDLecceSerie A1893401068
What this does not know. Squads are as our club feed returned them on 2026-07-28, and the window is still open — a signing made after that is missing, and the model would rate him if he were there. 187 of the 609 registered players have no measured season in our data at all: academy graduates and men signed from divisions we do not cover. They are simply left out of their club’s number rather than guessed at — which is its own kind of blindness, and the count is printed on every club card. We tried making the count of them an input: it improved the backtest and we dropped it anyway, because in the backtest a squad is the men who played and today it is the men a club has registered, so clubs with large academies were being marked down for paperwork. Ratings come from our match-level player records, which start to thin out below the fourth tier. The model has no transfer fees, no injuries, no coaches, no budgets and no pre-season, and it treats last season’s minutes as the guide to this season’s — so a club that has just changed manager and bought a first eleven is exactly where it will be most wrong. It is a projection of a season, not a guide to a match, and it is not a betting product.

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