GoalSoon · built 05 September 2026 · every figure is our own calculation
20 clubs, 609 players currently registered with them, and a projected points total for each — not from what the clubs did last season, but from what the men now in their squads did, wherever in the world they did it. The error is measured and published: ±8 points.
On this page: how it works · how wrong it is · the 20 clubs · where it disagrees with last season · where the minutes were played · club by club
A club is not the same thing in August that it was in April. Squads turn over, and a projection built on last season’s league table cannot see that. So this one starts a level down: every player registered with the 20 clubs, what he did last season, and where he did it.
The problem with adding players up is that a good season in one division is not a good season in another. We do not assume the gap — we measure it, on 8,628 players who actually moved and so were rated in both divisions in consecutive seasons. Fitting all those moves at once puts every division on one scale. The zero has to sit somewhere and we put it on League One, so every number below reads as “this much above or below a League One season”:
| Division | Level, in rating z | Moves seen |
|---|---|---|
| the Premier League | +1.46 | 1015 |
| La Liga | +1.18 | 1247 |
| the Bundesliga | +1.07 | 918 |
| Serie A | +1.03 | 1524 |
| Ligue 1 | +0.83 | 1139 |
| the Championship | +0.61 | 1189 |
| the Belgian Pro League | +0.44 | 628 |
| the Eredivisie | +0.36 | 731 |
| the Segunda | +0.35 | 1288 |
| the Primeira Liga | +0.35 | 652 |
| the 2. Bundesliga | +0.26 | 590 |
| Serie B | +0.23 | 1120 |
| the Scottish Premiership | +0.02 | 408 |
| Ligue 2 | +0.00 | 662 |
| League One | +0.00 | 1560 |
| the 3. Liga | -0.18 | 270 |
| the HNL | -0.21 | 279 |
| League Two | -0.27 | 1267 |
| the Challenger Pro League | -0.27 | 228 |
| the Eerste Divisie | -0.36 | 515 |
The Premier League sits about a point and a half of a standard deviation above League One, the Championship six tenths, League Two a quarter below. A separate term in the same fit carries whatever a player gains or loses simply by changing club, whichever division he lands in (+0.04 on this scale — near enough nothing), so that common effect is not charged to the divisions.
Five figures per club, each measured within its own division and season so that a Championship squad and a League Two squad are read on the same terms. The weights are fitted, not chosen:
| Input | Weight | What it is |
|---|---|---|
| squad quality | +0.532 | Squad quality — the 25 players with the heaviest minutes last season, each scored against his own division and then put on one scale. |
| the club’s own last season | +0.231 | What the club itself did last season, points per game, adjusted for the level it did it at — the only club-level input, and a light one. |
| attacking end | +0.121 | The attacking end — the six best goal-and-assist rates in the squad, again measured against the division each man played in. |
| ball-winning | +0.088 | Ball-winning — tackles per 90 across the squad, on the same scale. |
| minutes from the Championship or above | -0.043 | How much of the squad’s minutes were played in a division rated above League One — the Championship, the Premier League or a foreign division at that level. The threshold is fixed at League One for every page, so the input means the same thing wherever it is used. It is not a bonus for names; a man who played those minutes badly scores badly. |
Fitted on 120 club-seasons from the Championship, League One and League Two, 2020/21 to 2025/26.
Checked by holding out one season at a time and predicting it from the others, so nothing is scored on data it was fitted on:
| Approach | Error, pts/game | Over 38 games |
|---|---|---|
| Give every club the division average | 0.416 | ±15.8 |
| Repeat last season, adjusted for level | 0.282 | ±10.7 |
| This model, from the players | 0.221 | ±8.4 |
So it is worth about 7 points of accuracy over knowing nothing, and about 2 points over assuming last season repeats. That is a real edge and a small one — on 120 club-seasons it holds against the division average at p < 0.001. One thing that number does not say on its own: this method was carried over from three English divisions and tested on thirteen more before any of them got a page. Seven failed and have none — almost all of them second tiers, where a squad explains far less of a season. This division is one that passed, so read the figure as a division that survived a selection, not as a single test. The whole projected range across the division is 56 points and the error on any one club is ±8, which is why the table below is ordered but not numbered, and why the bands overlap almost everywhere. Anyone who tells you they can rank 20 clubs 1 to 20 in August is not measuring their own error.
The same model run on goals rather than points gives 0.234 of a goal per game of error on goals scored against 0.346 for the division average, and 0.208 against 0.298 on goals conceded. Both are small gains, and neither is the point of the page: the model is built and tested on points.
| Club | Projected pts | Band | Scored/game | Conceded/game | Squad | No data | Age | Mins from above | Mins from below | Last season pts | Where |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inter | 85 | 77–94 | 2.05 | 0.80 | 38 | 16 | 28.8 | 0% | 0% | 93 | Serie A |
| AS Roma | 76 | 68–84 | 1.84 | 0.93 | 33 | 9 | 26.6 | 3% | 1% | 79 | Serie A |
| Como | 72 | 64–81 | 1.73 | 0.98 | 30 | 7 | 25.2 | 8% | 8% | 75 | Serie A |
| AC Milan | 71 | 63–80 | 1.73 | 0.99 | 30 | 10 | 27.5 | 0% | 0% | 76 | Serie A |
| Juventus | 67 | 59–76 | 1.67 | 1.08 | 31 | 8 | 26.3 | 0% | 2% | 75 | Serie A |
| Atalanta | 65 | 57–73 | 1.55 | 1.06 | 30 | 9 | 27.1 | 0% | 0% | 65 | Serie A |
| Napoli | 58 | 49–66 | 1.57 | 1.33 | 29 | 6 | 28.4 | 0% | 0% | 79 | Serie A |
| Lazio | 51 | 43–59 | 1.31 | 1.33 | 33 | 10 | 27.8 | 0% | 5% | 60 | Serie A |
| Bologna | 48 | 40–57 | 1.29 | 1.39 | 30 | 5 | 26.2 | 5% | 4% | 56 | Serie A |
| Sassuolo | 47 | 39–56 | 1.20 | 1.35 | 26 | 10 | 26.9 | 0% | 8% | 52 | Serie A |
| Udinese | 44 | 36–53 | 1.18 | 1.48 | 34 | 6 | 26.3 | 2% | 18% | 54 | Serie A |
| Venezia | 44 | 36–53 | 1.29 | 1.59 | 35 | 9 | 25.4 | 8% | 84% | 82 | Serie B |
| Fiorentina | 44 | 35–52 | 1.07 | 1.36 | 33 | 14 | 26.3 | 7% | 0% | 42 | Serie A |
| Frosinone | 43 | 35–52 | 1.28 | 1.58 | 24 | 6 | 24.0 | 0% | 100% | 78 | Serie B |
| Genoa | 42 | 34–51 | 1.03 | 1.40 | 33 | 18 | 25.2 | 0% | 7% | 41 | Serie A |
| Cagliari | 41 | 33–49 | 1.06 | 1.54 | 32 | 12 | 25.0 | 2% | 19% | 46 | Serie A |
| Parma | 38 | 30–47 | 0.98 | 1.53 | 32 | 10 | 24.3 | 0% | 5% | 45 | Serie A |
| Torino | 37 | 29–45 | 1.04 | 1.57 | 25 | 4 | 27.0 | 0% | 11% | 45 | Serie A |
| Monza | 32 | 24–41 | 1.04 | 1.77 | 24 | 8 | 27.7 | 0% | 100% | 76 | Serie B |
| Lecce | 30 | 21–38 | 0.86 | 1.72 | 27 | 10 | 25.5 | 0% | 13% | 41 | Serie A |
▲ upper group ▼ lower group — grouping is by projection ± half the measured error, not by predicted position. Age is the squad’s average age weighted by the minutes each man played last season, so it describes the side that actually plays rather than the registration list. Mins from above and from below are the shares of last season’s measured minutes played in a division rated higher or lower than this one; the rest were played at this level or in a division we cannot place.
The plainest rival to this model is “whatever the club did last season, corrected for the division it did it in” — the second row of the error table above. Here is that number next to ours, club by club. Where the two agree, the squad has not really changed. Where they part, the summer did something the table cannot see:
| Club | Last season | Repeat it, level-adjusted | This model | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monza | 76 pts, Serie B, 3rd | 62 | 32 | -30 |
| Venezia | 82 pts, Serie B, 1st | 68 | 44 | -24 |
| Frosinone | 78 pts, Serie B, 2nd | 66 | 43 | -23 |
| Napoli | 79 pts, Serie A, 3rd | 75 | 58 | -17 |
| Lecce | 41 pts, Serie A, 17th | 39 | 30 | -9 |
| Udinese | 54 pts, Serie A, 10th | 51 | 44 | -7 |
| Lazio | 60 pts, Serie A, 8th | 57 | 51 | -6 |
| Torino | 45 pts, Serie A, 13th | 43 | 37 | -6 |
| Bologna | 56 pts, Serie A, 9th | 53 | 48 | -5 |
| Parma | 45 pts, Serie A, 14th | 43 | 38 | -4 |
| Juventus | 75 pts, Serie A, 6th | 71 | 67 | -4 |
| Fiorentina | 42 pts, Serie A, 15th | 40 | 44 | +4 |
| Atalanta | 65 pts, Serie A, 7th | 62 | 65 | +3 |
| Genoa | 41 pts, Serie A, 16th | 39 | 42 | +3 |
| Inter | 93 pts, Serie A, 1st | 88 | 85 | -3 |
| Cagliari | 46 pts, Serie A, 12th | 44 | 41 | -3 |
| Sassuolo | 52 pts, Serie A, 11th | 49 | 47 | -2 |
| Como | 75 pts, Serie A, 5th | 71 | 72 | +1 |
| AS Roma | 79 pts, Serie A, 2nd | 75 | 76 | +1 |
| AC Milan | 76 pts, Serie A, 4th | 72 | 71 | -1 |
Sorted by the size of the disagreement. The level adjustment is why a club promoted from League One does not simply keep its 25/26 points total: a point won a division lower is worth less here, and the size of that discount is the measured one from the transfers table above, not a guess.
Every club number on this page is built out of last season’s minutes, so it is worth seeing where those minutes come from. Across the division, the 609 registered players carry 8,099 full games of measured playing time from 2025/26, split like this:
| Division those minutes were played in | Minutes | Share | Level, in rating z |
|---|---|---|---|
| Serie A | 581,689 | 79.8% | +1.03 |
| Serie B | 107,615 | 14.8% | +0.23 |
| La Liga | 11,066 | 1.5% | +1.18 |
| the Championship | 7,508 | 1.0% | +0.61 |
| the Belgian Pro League | 4,068 | 0.6% | +0.44 |
| the Premier League | 2,618 | 0.4% | +1.46 |
| the 2. Bundesliga | 2,524 | 0.3% | +0.26 |
| Ligue 1 | 2,130 | 0.3% | +0.83 |
| Ligue 2 | 1,956 | 0.3% | +0.00 |
| the Eerste Divisie | 1,820 | 0.2% | -0.36 |
| the HNL | 1,814 | 0.2% | -0.21 |
| the Primeira Liga | 1,630 | 0.2% | +0.35 |
Only divisions we hold match-level player data for appear here; minutes played outside them are in the “no measured season” count instead, which is 187 of the 609 registered players. Per-club splits are on each club card below.
Last season those minutes were played in: Serie A 100%.
We project 85 points (77–94), against a division average of 52. Last season: 93 points in Serie A, finishing 1st. What pushes them up: squad quality (+21), the club’s own last season (+9), attacking end (+4) points. Of the 24 men who played for them last season, 23 are still on the list. 16 of the 38 registered players have no season in our data, so the projection is built on the other 22. Squad value on our player feed: €637.1m across 24 players — recorded here for context, it is not in the model.
| Where it comes from | Pts |
|---|---|
| squad quality | +20.7 |
| the club’s own last season | +8.9 |
| attacking end | +4.1 |
| minutes from the Championship or above | -0.5 |
| ball-winning | +0.4 |
| Player | Pos | Where in 2025/26 | Division | Mins | Apps | G | A | Rating pct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Federico Dimarco | M | Inter | Serie A | 2884 | 40 | 7 | 16 | 98 |
| Manuel Akanji | D | Inter | Serie A | 2963 | 37 | 2 | 0 | 96 |
| Alessandro Bastoni | D | Inter | Serie A | 2429 | 37 | 1 | 4 | 100 |
| Nicolo Barella | M | Inter | Serie A | 2713 | 37 | 3 | 9 | 96 |
| Lautaro Martinez | F | Inter | Serie A | 2322 | 35 | 17 | 6 | 95 |
| Hakan Calhanoglu | M | Inter | Serie A | 1769 | 29 | 11 | 4 | 100 |
Last season those minutes were played in: Serie A 96%.
We project 76 points (68–84), against a division average of 52. Last season: 79 points in Serie A, finishing 2nd. What pushes them up: squad quality (+14), the club’s own last season (+5), attacking end (+3) points. Of the 26 men who played for them last season, 23 are still on the list. 9 of the 33 registered players have no season in our data, so the projection is built on the other 24. Squad value on our player feed: €451.4m across 25 players — recorded here for context, it is not in the model.
| Where it comes from | Pts |
|---|---|
| squad quality | +14.1 |
| the club’s own last season | +4.9 |
| attacking end | +3.4 |
| ball-winning | +2.1 |
| minutes from the Championship or above | -0.5 |
| Player | Pos | Where in 2025/26 | Division | Mins | Apps | G | A | Rating pct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gianluca Mancini | D | AS Roma | Serie A | 3162 | 37 | 4 | 3 | 94 |
| Bryan Cristante | M | AS Roma | Serie A | 3199 | 38 | 2 | 1 | 90 |
| Matias Soule | F | AS Roma | Serie A | 2227 | 34 | 7 | 5 | 97 |
| Manu Kone | M | AS Roma | Serie A | 2526 | 30 | 2 | 3 | 91 |
| Evan Ndicka | D | AS Roma | Serie A | 2683 | 32 | 3 | 0 | 88 |
| Franca Wesley | M | AS Roma | Serie A | 2517 | 31 | 5 | 1 | 88 |
Last season those minutes were played in: Serie A 84%, La Liga 8%, Serie B 6%.
We project 72 points (64–81), against a division average of 52. Last season: 75 points in Serie A, finishing 5th. What pushes them up: squad quality (+13), the club’s own last season (+4), ball-winning (+2) points. Of the 23 men who played for them last season, 18 are still on the list. 7 of the 30 registered players have no season in our data, so the projection is built on the other 23. Squad value on our player feed: €407.7m across 30 players — recorded here for context, it is not in the model.
| Where it comes from | Pts |
|---|---|
| squad quality | +12.5 |
| the club’s own last season | +3.8 |
| ball-winning | +2.4 |
| attacking end | +2.2 |
| minutes from the Championship or above | -0.5 |
| Player | Pos | Where in 2025/26 | Division | Mins | Apps | G | A | Rating pct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nico Paz | M | Como | Serie A | 3054 | 38 | 12 | 6 | 98 |
| Jacobo Ramon | D | Como | Serie A | 2929 | 35 | 2 | 0 | 97 |
| Luis Milla | M | Getafe | La Liga | 3273 | 37 | 1 | 10 | 90 |
| Lucas Da Cunha | M | Como | Serie A | 2865 | 40 | 6 | 4 | 94 |
| Jean Butez | G | Como | Serie A | 3606 | 40 | 0 | 1 | 89 |
| Maximo Perrone | M | Como | Serie A | 2818 | 39 | 3 | 4 | 83 |
Last season those minutes were played in: Serie A 100%.
We project 71 points (63–80), against a division average of 52. Last season: 76 points in Serie A, finishing 4th. What pushes them up: squad quality (+13), the club’s own last season (+4), attacking end (+3) points. Of the 24 men who played for them last season, 21 are still on the list. 10 of the 30 registered players have no season in our data, so the projection is built on the other 20. Squad value on our player feed: €467.4m across 26 players — recorded here for context, it is not in the model.
| Where it comes from | Pts |
|---|---|
| squad quality | +13.3 |
| the club’s own last season | +4.1 |
| attacking end | +2.7 |
| minutes from the Championship or above | -0.5 |
| ball-winning | -0.2 |
| Player | Pos | Where in 2025/26 | Division | Mins | Apps | G | A | Rating pct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luka Modric | M | AC Milan | Serie A | 2895 | 37 | 2 | 3 | 99 |
| Alexis Saelemaekers | F | AC Milan | Serie A | 2829 | 36 | 3 | 4 | 98 |
| Strahinja Pavlovic | D | AC Milan | Serie A | 2960 | 38 | 5 | 1 | 95 |
| Adrien Rabiot | M | AC Milan | Serie A | 2581 | 30 | 6 | 4 | 96 |
| Mike Maignan | G | AC Milan | Serie A | 3386 | 38 | 0 | 0 | 91 |
| Matteo Gabbia | D | AC Milan | Serie A | 2534 | 33 | 0 | 0 | 84 |
Last season those minutes were played in: Serie A 98%.
We project 67 points (59–76), against a division average of 52. Last season: 75 points in Serie A, finishing 6th. What pushes them up: squad quality (+9), the club’s own last season (+4), attacking end (+2) points. Of the 25 men who played for them last season, 21 are still on the list. 8 of the 31 registered players have no season in our data, so the projection is built on the other 23. Squad value on our player feed: €499.5m across 24 players — recorded here for context, it is not in the model.
| Where it comes from | Pts |
|---|---|
| squad quality | +9.3 |
| the club’s own last season | +3.8 |
| attacking end | +2.3 |
| ball-winning | +0.7 |
| minutes from the Championship or above | -0.5 |
| Player | Pos | Where in 2025/26 | Division | Mins | Apps | G | A | Rating pct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manuel Locatelli | M | Juventus | Serie A | 3095 | 38 | 1 | 2 | 100 |
| Kenan Yildiz | M | Juventus | Serie A | 2907 | 38 | 10 | 6 | 98 |
| Lloyd Kelly | D | Juventus | Serie A | 3088 | 36 | 1 | 1 | 90 |
| Bremer | D | Juventus | Serie A | 2265 | 28 | 5 | 3 | 97 |
| Pierre Kalulu | D | Juventus | Serie A | 3372 | 38 | 2 | 4 | 83 |
| Andrea Cambiaso | D | Juventus | Serie A | 2815 | 37 | 3 | 4 | 79 |
Last season those minutes were played in: Serie A 100%.
We project 65 points (57–73), against a division average of 52. Last season: 65 points in Serie A, finishing 7th. What pushes them up: squad quality (+10), ball-winning (+2), attacking end (+1) points. Of the 25 men who played for them last season, 22 are still on the list. 9 of the 30 registered players have no season in our data, so the projection is built on the other 21. Squad value on our player feed: €399.5m across 25 players — recorded here for context, it is not in the model.
| Where it comes from | Pts |
|---|---|
| squad quality | +9.6 |
| ball-winning | +1.8 |
| attacking end | +1.3 |
| the club’s own last season | +1.0 |
| minutes from the Championship or above | -0.5 |
| Player | Pos | Where in 2025/26 | Division | Mins | Apps | G | A | Rating pct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marco Carnesecchi | G | Atalanta | Serie A | 3330 | 38 | 0 | 0 | 93 |
| Charles De Ketelaere | F | Atalanta | Serie A | 2188 | 31 | 3 | 5 | 99 |
| Marten de Roon | M | Atalanta | Serie A | 2704 | 35 | 1 | 2 | 89 |
| Giorgio Scalvini | D | Atalanta | Serie A | 1817 | 29 | 3 | 1 | 95 |
| Berat Djimsiti | D | Atalanta | Serie A | 2533 | 35 | 0 | 0 | 81 |
| Ederson | M | Atalanta | Serie A | 2235 | 33 | 2 | 1 | 85 |
Last season those minutes were played in: Serie A 100%.
We project 58 points (49–66), against a division average of 52. Last season: 79 points in Serie A, finishing 3rd. What pushes them up: the club’s own last season (+5), attacking end (+2), squad quality (+1) points. What pulls them down: ball-winning (-1) points. Of the 28 men who played for them last season, 21 are still on the list. 6 of the 29 registered players have no season in our data, so the projection is built on the other 23. Squad value on our player feed: €416.4m across 28 players — recorded here for context, it is not in the model.
| Where it comes from | Pts |
|---|---|
| the club’s own last season | +4.9 |
| attacking end | +1.8 |
| ball-winning | -1.1 |
| squad quality | +0.6 |
| minutes from the Championship or above | -0.5 |
| Player | Pos | Where in 2025/26 | Division | Mins | Apps | G | A | Rating pct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amir Rrahmani | D | Napoli | Serie A | 1954 | 26 | 2 | 2 | 100 |
| Scott McTominay | M | Napoli | Serie A | 2913 | 35 | 10 | 3 | 88 |
| Stanislav Lobotka | M | Napoli | Serie A | 2595 | 34 | 1 | 1 | 80 |
| Leonardo Spinazzola | D | Napoli | Serie A | 2006 | 36 | 3 | 3 | 91 |
| Matteo Politano | F | Napoli | Serie A | 2367 | 36 | 2 | 5 | 82 |
| Giovanni Di Lorenzo | D | Napoli | Serie A | 2432 | 29 | 2 | 1 | 72 |
Last season those minutes were played in: Serie A 95%, Serie B 5%.
We project 51 points (43–59), against a division average of 52. Last season: 60 points in Serie A, finishing 8th. What pushes them up: squad quality (+1) points. What pulls them down: ball-winning (-1) points. Of the 27 men who played for them last season, 24 are still on the list. 10 of the 33 registered players have no season in our data, so the projection is built on the other 23. Squad value on our player feed: €211.5m across 25 players — recorded here for context, it is not in the model.
| Where it comes from | Pts |
|---|---|
| ball-winning | -0.8 |
| squad quality | +0.8 |
| minutes from the Championship or above | -0.5 |
| the club’s own last season | -0.4 |
| attacking end | +0.0 |
| Player | Pos | Where in 2025/26 | Division | Mins | Apps | G | A | Rating pct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mario Gila | D | Lazio | Serie A | 2482 | 31 | 0 | 0 | 98 |
| Alessio Romagnoli | D | Lazio | Serie A | 2667 | 34 | 0 | 0 | 87 |
| Mattia Zaccagni | F | Lazio | Serie A | 2308 | 29 | 3 | 0 | 88 |
| Ivan Provedel | G | Lazio | Serie A | 2430 | 27 | 0 | 0 | 84 |
| Matteo Cancellieri | F | Lazio | Serie A | 1847 | 33 | 4 | 2 | 80 |
| Oliver Provstgaard | D | Lazio | Serie A | 1738 | 40 | 0 | 0 | 81 |
Last season those minutes were played in: Serie A 91%, La Liga 5%.
We project 48 points (40–57), against a division average of 52. Last season: 56 points in Serie A, finishing 9th. What pushes them up: attacking end (+1) points. What pulls them down: squad quality (-3), the club’s own last season (-2) points. Of the 29 men who played for them last season, 21 are still on the list. 5 of the 30 registered players have no season in our data, so the projection is built on the other 25. Squad value on our player feed: €254.3m across 27 players — recorded here for context, it is not in the model.
| Where it comes from | Pts |
|---|---|
| squad quality | -3.2 |
| the club’s own last season | -1.6 |
| attacking end | +1.2 |
| minutes from the Championship or above | -0.5 |
| ball-winning | +0.3 |
| Player | Pos | Where in 2025/26 | Division | Mins | Apps | G | A | Rating pct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jhon Lucumi | D | Bologna | Serie A | 2300 | 33 | 1 | 0 | 92 |
| Juan Miranda | D | Bologna | Serie A | 2670 | 35 | 1 | 3 | 86 |
| Nikola Moro | M | Bologna | Serie A | 1797 | 39 | 1 | 0 | 95 |
| Riccardo Orsolini | M | Bologna | Serie A | 2191 | 38 | 10 | 1 | 70 |
| Santiago Castro | F | Bologna | Serie A | 2365 | 38 | 7 | 2 | 61 |
| Nicolo Cambiaghi | M | Bologna | Serie A | 1590 | 32 | 3 | 4 | 81 |
Last season those minutes were played in: Serie A 92%, Serie B 8%.
We project 47 points (39–56), against a division average of 52. Last season: 52 points in Serie A, finishing 11th. What pulls them down: the club’s own last season (-3), ball-winning (-1) points. Of the 28 men who played for them last season, 18 are still on the list. 10 of the 26 registered players have no season in our data, so the projection is built on the other 16. Squad value on our player feed: €188.3m across 27 players — recorded here for context, it is not in the model.
| Where it comes from | Pts |
|---|---|
| the club’s own last season | -2.7 |
| ball-winning | -1.1 |
| attacking end | -0.5 |
| minutes from the Championship or above | -0.5 |
| squad quality | +0.1 |
| Player | Pos | Where in 2025/26 | Division | Mins | Apps | G | A | Rating pct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arijanet Muric | G | Sassuolo | Serie A | 2970 | 39 | 0 | 0 | 87 |
| Armand Lauriente | F | Sassuolo | Serie A | 2704 | 39 | 7 | 9 | 90 |
| Ismael Kone | M | Sassuolo | Serie A | 2756 | 36 | 6 | 0 | 88 |
| Domenico Berardi | F | Sassuolo | Serie A | 1988 | 27 | 9 | 4 | 96 |
| Nemanja Matic | M | Sassuolo | Serie A | 2758 | 35 | 1 | 1 | 82 |
| Kristian Thorstvedt | M | Sassuolo | Serie A | 2488 | 33 | 4 | 4 | 75 |
Last season those minutes were played in: Serie A 80%, the Championship 11%, Serie B 4%.
We project 44 points (36–53), against a division average of 52. Last season: 54 points in Serie A, finishing 10th. What pushes them up: minutes from the Championship or above (+1) points. What pulls them down: squad quality (-5), the club’s own last season (-2), attacking end (-1) points. Of the 27 men who played for them last season, 22 are still on the list. 6 of the 34 registered players have no season in our data, so the projection is built on the other 28. Squad value on our player feed: €185.1m across 34 players — recorded here for context, it is not in the model.
| Where it comes from | Pts |
|---|---|
| squad quality | -5.5 |
| the club’s own last season | -2.1 |
| minutes from the Championship or above | +1.0 |
| attacking end | -0.8 |
| ball-winning | -0.1 |
| Player | Pos | Where in 2025/26 | Division | Mins | Apps | G | A | Rating pct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oumar Solet | D | Udinese | Serie A | 3147 | 38 | 3 | 1 | 98 |
| Keinan Davis | F | Udinese | Serie A | 2147 | 31 | 10 | 4 | 89 |
| Thomas Kristensen | D | Udinese | Serie A | 2475 | 30 | 3 | 0 | 82 |
| Jurgen Ekkelenkamp | F | Udinese | Serie A | 2378 | 37 | 6 | 4 | 82 |
| Nicolo Zaniolo | F | Udinese | Serie A | 2359 | 33 | 5 | 6 | 78 |
| Jesper Karlstrom | M | Udinese | Serie A | 3338 | 38 | 1 | 0 | 59 |
Last season those minutes were played in: Serie B 75%, La Liga 8%, Serie A 7%, the Belgian Pro League 4%.
We project 44 points (36–53), against a division average of 52. Last season: 82 points in Serie B, finishing 1st. What pushes them up: the club’s own last season (+3), minutes from the Championship or above (+1) points. What pulls them down: squad quality (-7), ball-winning (-4), attacking end (-1) points. Of the 24 men who played for them last season, 20 are still on the list. 9 of the 35 registered players have no season in our data, so the projection is built on the other 26. Squad value on our player feed: €88.0m across 29 players — recorded here for context, it is not in the model.
| Where it comes from | Pts |
|---|---|
| squad quality | -6.7 |
| ball-winning | -4.1 |
| the club’s own last season | +2.9 |
| minutes from the Championship or above | +0.9 |
| attacking end | -0.9 |
| Player | Pos | Where in 2025/26 | Division | Mins | Apps | G | A | Rating pct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gianluca Busio | M | Venezia | Serie B | 3210 | 37 | 7 | 4 | 99 |
| Filip Stankovic | G | Venezia | Serie B | 3427 | 38 | 0 | 0 | 98 |
| John Yeboah | F | Venezia | Serie B | 2614 | 35 | 10 | 9 | 99 |
| Kike Perez | M | Venezia | Serie B | 2752 | 37 | 3 | 7 | 96 |
| Antoine Hainaut | M | Venezia | Serie B | 3049 | 38 | 5 | 5 | 88 |
| Akor Adams | F | Sevilla | La Liga | 2070 | 33 | 10 | 3 | 65 |
Last season those minutes were played in: Serie A 93%, the Premier League 7%.
We project 44 points (35–52), against a division average of 52. Last season: 42 points in Serie A, finishing 15th. What pulls them down: the club’s own last season (-6), ball-winning (-1), attacking end (-1) points. Of the 31 men who played for them last season, 17 are still on the list. 14 of the 33 registered players have no season in our data, so the projection is built on the other 19. Squad value on our player feed: €304.0m across 28 players — recorded here for context, it is not in the model.
| Where it comes from | Pts |
|---|---|
| the club’s own last season | -5.5 |
| ball-winning | -1.3 |
| attacking end | -1.0 |
| minutes from the Championship or above | -0.5 |
| squad quality | -0.1 |
| Player | Pos | Where in 2025/26 | Division | Mins | Apps | G | A | Rating pct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicolo Fagioli | M | Fiorentina | Serie A | 2599 | 38 | 2 | 3 | 96 |
| Dodo | D | Fiorentina | Serie A | 3139 | 37 | 1 | 2 | 89 |
| Rolando Mandragora | M | Fiorentina | Serie A | 2463 | 36 | 7 | 3 | 87 |
| Arthur Atta | M | Udinese | Serie A | 2563 | 32 | 5 | 3 | 74 |
| Luca Ranieri | D | Fiorentina | Serie A | 2479 | 37 | 1 | 0 | 75 |
| David de Gea | G | Fiorentina | Serie A | 3426 | 39 | 0 | 0 | 58 |
Last season those minutes were played in: Serie B 93%, the 2. Bundesliga 7%.
We project 43 points (35–52), against a division average of 52. Last season: 78 points in Serie B, finishing 2nd. What pushes them up: the club’s own last season (+2) points. What pulls them down: squad quality (-8), ball-winning (-2) points. Of the 24 men who played for them last season, 17 are still on the list. 6 of the 24 registered players have no season in our data, so the projection is built on the other 18. Squad value on our player feed: €51.9m across 25 players — recorded here for context, it is not in the model.
| Where it comes from | Pts |
|---|---|
| squad quality | -8.2 |
| the club’s own last season | +2.4 |
| ball-winning | -1.8 |
| attacking end | -0.5 |
| minutes from the Championship or above | -0.5 |
| Player | Pos | Where in 2025/26 | Division | Mins | Apps | G | A | Rating pct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giacomo Calo | M | Frosinone | Serie B | 3104 | 36 | 10 | 15 | 100 |
| Fares Ghedjemis | F | Frosinone | Serie B | 2952 | 37 | 15 | 3 | 99 |
| Lorenzo Palmisani | G | Frosinone | Serie B | 3332 | 37 | 0 | 0 | 91 |
| Ilario Monterisi | D | Frosinone | Serie B | 1962 | 25 | 2 | 5 | 93 |
| Gabriele Calvani | D | Frosinone | Serie B | 2715 | 35 | 1 | 1 | 83 |
| Anthony Oyono | D | Frosinone | Serie B | 2729 | 33 | 1 | 4 | 78 |
Last season those minutes were played in: Serie A 93%, the Primeira Liga 5%.
We project 42 points (34–51), against a division average of 52. Last season: 41 points in Serie A, finishing 16th. What pushes them up: ball-winning (+2) points. What pulls them down: the club’s own last season (-6), squad quality (-4), attacking end (-2) points. Of the 27 men who played for them last season, 14 are still on the list. 18 of the 33 registered players have no season in our data, so the projection is built on the other 15. Squad value on our player feed: €142.5m across 26 players — recorded here for context, it is not in the model.
| Where it comes from | Pts |
|---|---|
| the club’s own last season | -5.8 |
| squad quality | -3.9 |
| ball-winning | +2.4 |
| attacking end | -2.0 |
| minutes from the Championship or above | -0.5 |
| Player | Pos | Where in 2025/26 | Division | Mins | Apps | G | A | Rating pct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leo Ostigard | D | Genoa | Serie A | 2784 | 34 | 5 | 1 | 99 |
| Morten Frendrup | F | Genoa | Serie A | 3250 | 38 | 1 | 0 | 85 |
| Aaron Martin | D | Genoa | Serie A | 2185 | 40 | 1 | 5 | 83 |
| Johan Vasquez | D | Genoa | Serie A | 3359 | 40 | 1 | 0 | 59 |
| Vitinha | F | Genoa | Serie A | 2381 | 39 | 5 | 1 | 72 |
| Brooke Norton-Cuffy | M | Genoa | Serie A | 2375 | 30 | 2 | 1 | 63 |
Last season those minutes were played in: Serie A 80%, the Championship 8%, the Eerste Divisie 6%, Serie B 5%.
We project 41 points (33–49), against a division average of 52. Last season: 46 points in Serie A, finishing 12th. What pushes them up: minutes from the Championship or above (+2), ball-winning (+1) points. What pulls them down: squad quality (-8), the club’s own last season (-4), attacking end (-2) points. Of the 26 men who played for them last season, 15 are still on the list. 12 of the 32 registered players have no season in our data, so the projection is built on the other 20. Squad value on our player feed: €138.7m across 27 players — recorded here for context, it is not in the model.
| Where it comes from | Pts |
|---|---|
| squad quality | -7.6 |
| the club’s own last season | -4.4 |
| minutes from the Championship or above | +2.4 |
| attacking end | -2.3 |
| ball-winning | +0.9 |
| Player | Pos | Where in 2025/26 | Division | Mins | Apps | G | A | Rating pct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sebastiano Esposito | F | Cagliari | Serie A | 2699 | 37 | 7 | 5 | 91 |
| Adam Obert | D | Cagliari | Serie A | 2939 | 38 | 0 | 3 | 76 |
| Elia Caprile | G | Cagliari | Serie A | 3571 | 40 | 0 | 0 | 73 |
| Yerry Mina | D | Cagliari | Serie A | 2153 | 30 | 2 | 0 | 88 |
| Harry Winks | M | Leicester | the Championship | 2489 | 34 | 1 | 2 | 88 |
| Gennaro Borrelli | F | Cagliari | Serie A | 1285 | 31 | 5 | 1 | 65 |
Last season those minutes were played in: Serie A 95%.
We project 38 points (30–47), against a division average of 52. Last season: 45 points in Serie A, finishing 14th. What pushes them up: minutes from the Championship or above (+1) points. What pulls them down: squad quality (-7), the club’s own last season (-5), attacking end (-3) points. Of the 29 men who played for them last season, 23 are still on the list. 10 of the 32 registered players have no season in our data, so the projection is built on the other 22. Squad value on our player feed: €159.8m across 23 players — recorded here for context, it is not in the model.
| Where it comes from | Pts |
|---|---|
| squad quality | -6.6 |
| the club’s own last season | -4.7 |
| attacking end | -3.2 |
| minutes from the Championship or above | +1.0 |
| ball-winning | -0.0 |
| Player | Pos | Where in 2025/26 | Division | Mins | Apps | G | A | Rating pct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alessandro Circati | D | Parma | Serie A | 2666 | 32 | 1 | 0 | 92 |
| Adrian Bernabe Garcia | M | Parma | Serie A | 2554 | 33 | 3 | 1 | 92 |
| Mandela Keita | M | Parma | Serie A | 3060 | 38 | 1 | 1 | 82 |
| Emanuele Valeri | D | Parma | Serie A | 2706 | 35 | 0 | 2 | 76 |
| Mateo Pellegrino | F | Parma | Serie A | 2991 | 37 | 9 | 1 | 62 |
| Lautaro Valenti | D | Parma | Serie A | 2251 | 32 | 0 | 0 | 74 |
Last season those minutes were played in: Serie A 89%, Serie B 9%.
We project 37 points (29–45), against a division average of 52. Last season: 45 points in Serie A, finishing 13th. What pulls them down: squad quality (-9), the club’s own last season (-5), attacking end (-1) points. Of the 30 men who played for them last season, 19 are still on the list. 4 of the 25 registered players have no season in our data, so the projection is built on the other 21. Squad value on our player feed: €128.1m across 28 players — recorded here for context, it is not in the model.
| Where it comes from | Pts |
|---|---|
| squad quality | -9.4 |
| the club’s own last season | -4.7 |
| attacking end | -0.7 |
| ball-winning | -0.4 |
| minutes from the Championship or above | +0.4 |
| Player | Pos | Where in 2025/26 | Division | Mins | Apps | G | A | Rating pct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikola Vlasic | M | Torino | Serie A | 3143 | 38 | 8 | 3 | 75 |
| Alberto Paleari | G | Torino | Serie A | 2610 | 39 | 0 | 0 | 80 |
| Saul Coco | D | Torino | Serie A | 3180 | 37 | 1 | 1 | 70 |
| Giovanni Simeone | F | Torino | Serie A | 2318 | 35 | 11 | 0 | 66 |
| Ardian Ismajli | D | Torino | Serie A | 1938 | 26 | 0 | 1 | 71 |
| Cesare Casadei | M | Torino | Serie A | 1990 | 37 | 6 | 0 | 64 |
Last season those minutes were played in: Serie B 100%.
We project 32 points (24–41), against a division average of 52. Last season: 76 points in Serie B, finishing 3rd. What pushes them up: the club’s own last season (+1) points. What pulls them down: squad quality (-15), attacking end (-4), ball-winning (-2) points. Of the 27 men who played for them last season, 17 are still on the list. 8 of the 24 registered players have no season in our data, so the projection is built on the other 16. Squad value on our player feed: €45.8m across 24 players — recorded here for context, it is not in the model.
| Where it comes from | Pts |
|---|---|
| squad quality | -14.7 |
| attacking end | -3.5 |
| ball-winning | -2.0 |
| the club’s own last season | +1.1 |
| minutes from the Championship or above | -0.5 |
| Player | Pos | Where in 2025/26 | Division | Mins | Apps | G | A | Rating pct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matteo Pessina | M | Monza | Serie B | 2913 | 35 | 5 | 1 | 95 |
| Pedro Obiang | M | Monza | Serie B | 2340 | 36 | 2 | 1 | 89 |
| Samuele Birindelli | D | Monza | Serie B | 2632 | 33 | 5 | 2 | 81 |
| Demba Thiam | G | Monza | Serie B | 3426 | 38 | 0 | 0 | 74 |
| Andrea Carboni | D | Monza | Serie B | 2212 | 35 | 1 | 2 | 83 |
| Andrea Colpani | M | Monza | Serie B | 1316 | 31 | 2 | 1 | 93 |
Last season those minutes were played in: Serie A 87%, the Belgian Pro League 4%, Serie B 3%.
We project 30 points (21–38), against a division average of 52. Last season: 41 points in Serie A, finishing 17th. What pushes them up: ball-winning (+2), minutes from the Championship or above (+1) points. What pulls them down: squad quality (-15), the club’s own last season (-6), attacking end (-4) points. Of the 27 men who played for them last season, 18 are still on the list. 10 of the 27 registered players have no season in our data, so the projection is built on the other 17. Squad value on our player feed: €76.1m across 25 players — recorded here for context, it is not in the model.
| Where it comes from | Pts |
|---|---|
| squad quality | -15.2 |
| the club’s own last season | -5.8 |
| attacking end | -3.6 |
| ball-winning | +1.7 |
| minutes from the Championship or above | +0.9 |
| Player | Pos | Where in 2025/26 | Division | Mins | Apps | G | A | Rating pct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gabriel Tiago | D | Lecce | Serie A | 3281 | 39 | 3 | 0 | 79 |
| Wladimiro Falcone | G | Lecce | Serie A | 3606 | 40 | 0 | 0 | 67 |
| Lassana Coulibaly | M | Lecce | Serie A | 2881 | 36 | 3 | 2 | 56 |
| Antonino Gallo | D | Lecce | Serie A | 3103 | 39 | 0 | 4 | 50 |
| Danilo Veiga | M | Lecce | Serie A | 3208 | 39 | 0 | 1 | 50 |
| Jamil Siebert | D | Lecce | Serie A | 1893 | 40 | 1 | 0 | 68 |
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