League Two live

Deserved goals. Every shot on target in the League Two is worth 0.313 goals on average. That is the whole formula — no black box. On the League Two matches where both exist, our number tracks goals at r = 0.571 and their after-the-match expected goals at r = 0.449. It is not expected goals: it knows nothing about where a shot was taken from, only whether it was on target. It is shown because it is the one thing that can be worked out while the match is on.

Pressure through the match. The feed reports what is happening on the pitch roughly every minute — attack, dangerous attack, corner, throw-in, VAR check. Each sample is weighted and drawn on the timeline: the home side above the line, the away side below. It is not a chance count, it is where the ball has been living.

Possession is at the bottom on purpose. Across 6592 League Two club-matches, possession and goals scored correlate at r = -0.101. It is the number every live page puts at the top and in this division it tells you nothing about who is going to score.

What is missing, and why. Expected goals, shot locations and player-by-player numbers only arrive from the data feed after the final whistle, so they cannot be shown here. When they land, they go into the season pages.