2 de Mayo vs Cerro Porteño Prediction & Preview
Primera Division (Paraguay) · Jul 28, 2026 · kickoff 21:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
PRIMERA DIVISION (PARAGUAY)
2 de Mayo vs Cerro Porteño
Model pick: Cerro Porteño (45%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.89 – 1.33
Total goals: 2.2
Over 2.5: 44%
Both teams score: 49%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| 2 de Mayo | Cerro Porteño |
|---|
| League position | #8 (138 pts) | #1 (197 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.4 / 1.6 | 1.0 / 0.4 |
*2 de Mayo shown at home, Cerro Porteño shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
2 de Mayo — last 5
LWLDW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 36% of the time; 27% of home games go over 2.5.
Cerro Porteño — last 5
WDWWL
On the road: clean sheet 36% of the time; 46% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | 2 de Mayo (home) | Cerro Porteño (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 36% | 36% |
| Both teams scored | 42% | 54% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 27% | 46% |
| Top scorer | Wilson Ayala (1) | Pablo Vegetti (3) |
Primera Division (Paraguay) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.52
Home wins: 38%
Draws: 28%
Away wins: 33%
Over 2.5: 46%
BTTS: 50%
Use these Primera Division (Paraguay) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.89 vs 1.33):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-1 (14%) |
| Double chance — 2 de Mayo or draw (1X) | 53% |
| Double chance — Cerro Porteño or draw (X2) | 75% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 72% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 65% / 35% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 18% / 82% |
| 2 de Mayo clean sheet | 26% |
| Cerro Porteño clean sheet | 41% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Cerro Porteño is the model's most likely outcome at
45%. Despite playing away, Cerro Porteño edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (56% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ 2 de Mayo vs Cerro Porteño — FAQ
Who will win 2 de Mayo vs Cerro Porteño?
Our statistical model makes Cerro Porteño the most likely result at 45%. Full probabilities: 2 de Mayo 26%, draw 29%, Cerro Porteño 45%.
Will both teams score in 2 de Mayo vs Cerro Porteño?
The model gives a 49% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in 2 de Mayo vs Cerro Porteño?
Expected goals are 0.89 for 2 de Mayo and 1.33 for Cerro Porteño — about 2.2 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in 2 de Mayo vs Cerro Porteño?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-1 (14%). Double chance for 2 de Mayo or draw is 53%.