9 de Julio Rafaela vs Chivilcoy Prediction & Preview
Argentino A (Argentina) · Aug 12, 2026 · kickoff 20:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
ARGENTINO A (ARGENTINA)
9 de Julio Rafaela vs Chivilcoy
Model pick: Draw (48%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.14 – 0.66
Total goals: 0.8
Over 2.5: 16%
Both teams score: 24%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| 9 de Julio Rafaela | Chivilcoy |
|---|
| League position | #5 (25 pts) | #3 (26 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 2.3 / 1.4 | 0.6 / 1.2 |
| Win rate this season* | 67% | 12% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.5 / 1.75 | 0.75 / 0.5 |
*9 de Julio Rafaela shown at home, Chivilcoy shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
9 de Julio Rafaela — last 5
LLLD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 50% of the time; 50% of home games go over 2.5.
Chivilcoy — last 5
WDDD
On the road: clean sheet 0% of the time; 100% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | 9 de Julio Rafaela (home) | Chivilcoy (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 6-1-2 in 9 (2.3 / 1.4 goals per game) | 1-2-5 in 8 (0.6 / 1.2 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 50% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 100% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 100% |
Argentino A (Argentina) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.04
Home wins: 51%
Draws: 31%
Away wins: 18%
Over 2.5: 40%
BTTS: 36%
Use these Argentino A (Argentina) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.14 vs 0.66):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-0 (45%) |
| Double chance — 9 de Julio Rafaela or draw (1X) | 56% |
| Double chance — Chivilcoy or draw (X2) | 93% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 51% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 19% / 81% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 1% / 99% |
| 9 de Julio Rafaela clean sheet | 52% |
| Chivilcoy clean sheet | 87% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Draw is the model's most likely outcome at
48%. The model sees no clear favourite — a draw is live. Goals may be harder to come by (84% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ 9 de Julio Rafaela vs Chivilcoy — FAQ
Who will win 9 de Julio Rafaela vs Chivilcoy?
Our statistical model makes Draw the most likely result at 48%. Full probabilities: 9 de Julio Rafaela 9%, draw 48%, Chivilcoy 43%.
Will both teams score in 9 de Julio Rafaela vs Chivilcoy?
The model gives a 24% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in 9 de Julio Rafaela vs Chivilcoy?
Expected goals are 0.14 for 9 de Julio Rafaela and 0.66 for Chivilcoy — about 0.8 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in 9 de Julio Rafaela vs Chivilcoy?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-0 (45%). Double chance for 9 de Julio Rafaela or draw is 56%.