A. Salzburg vs Kapfenberger SV Prediction & Preview
1-Liga (Austria) · Aug 21, 2026 · kickoff 16:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
1-LIGA (AUSTRIA)
A. Salzburg vs Kapfenberger SV
Model pick: A. Salzburg (53%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.89 – 1.07
Total goals: 3.0
Over 2.5: 54%
Both teams score: 55%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| A. Salzburg | Kapfenberger SV |
|---|
| League position | #5 (6 pts) | #16 (0 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 4.0 / 1.0 | 2.0 / 3.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 100% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.6 / 1.2 | 1.4 / 3.0 |
*A. Salzburg shown at home, Kapfenberger SV shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
A. Salzburg — last 5
DWWWL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 38% of the time; 56% of home games go over 2.5.
Kapfenberger SV — last 5
LWLLL
On the road: clean sheet 20% of the time; 59% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | A. Salzburg (home) | Kapfenberger SV (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 1-0-0 in 1 (4.0 / 1.0 goals per game) | 0-0-1 in 1 (2.0 / 3.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 38% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 56% | 53% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 59% |
1-Liga (Austria) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.98
Home wins: 42%
Draws: 23%
Away wins: 35%
Over 2.5: 58%
BTTS: 56%
Use these 1-Liga (Austria) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.89 vs 1.07):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (10%) |
| Double chance — A. Salzburg or draw (1X) | 79% |
| Double chance — Kapfenberger SV or draw (X2) | 43% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 78% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 79% / 21% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 34% / 66% |
| A. Salzburg clean sheet | 34% |
| Kapfenberger SV clean sheet | 15% |
🎯 Our Verdict
A. Salzburg is the model's most likely outcome at
53%. A. Salzburg are backed at home, where they average 1.8 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (46% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
🔌 Football Predictions API — for developers
Want this data in your own app or model? Get win probabilities (1X2), expected goals, over/under, BTTS and correct-score for 40+ leagues worldwide via a simple JSON API — the same GoalSoon model behind this page.
40+ leagues
1X2 · O/U · BTTS · xG
JSON REST
Free tier available
Get API access on RapidAPI →
❓ A. Salzburg vs Kapfenberger SV — FAQ
Who will win A. Salzburg vs Kapfenberger SV?
Our statistical model makes A. Salzburg the most likely result at 53%. Full probabilities: A. Salzburg 53%, draw 24%, Kapfenberger SV 23%.
Will both teams score in A. Salzburg vs Kapfenberger SV?
The model gives a 55% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in A. Salzburg vs Kapfenberger SV?
Expected goals are 1.89 for A. Salzburg and 1.07 for Kapfenberger SV — about 3.0 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in A. Salzburg vs Kapfenberger SV?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (10%). Double chance for A. Salzburg or draw is 79%.