ÍA vs KR Prediction & Preview
Urvalsdeild (Iceland) · Sep 06, 2026 · kickoff 14:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
URVALSDEILD (ICELAND)
ÍA vs KR
Model pick: ÍA (40%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 2.13 – 2.08
Total goals: 4.2
Over 2.5: 68%
Both teams score: 66%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| ÍA | KR |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.0 / 1.2 | 3.8 / 1.8 |
*ÍA shown at home, KR shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
ÍA — last 5
DWWDD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 23% of the time; 66% of home games go over 2.5.
KR — last 5
WDWDW
On the road: clean sheet 24% of the time; 57% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | ÍA (home) | KR (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 23% | 24% |
| Both teams scored | 58% | 61% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 66% | 57% |
Urvalsdeild (Iceland) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.23
Home wins: 45%
Draws: 24%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 62%
BTTS: 61%
Use these Urvalsdeild (Iceland) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (2.13 vs 2.08):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 2-2 (7%) |
| Double chance — ÍA or draw (1X) | 61% |
| Double chance — KR or draw (X2) | 59% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 80% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 92% / 8% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 61% / 39% |
| ÍA clean sheet | 12% |
| KR clean sheet | 12% |
🎯 Our Verdict
ÍA is the model's most likely outcome at
40%. ÍA are backed at home, where they average 1.7 goals a game. With expected goals of 4.2, this shapes as an open game (68% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ ÍA vs KR — FAQ
Who will win ÍA vs KR?
Our statistical model makes ÍA the most likely result at 40%. Full probabilities: ÍA 40%, draw 22%, KR 38%.
Will both teams score in ÍA vs KR?
The model gives a 66% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in ÍA vs KR?
Expected goals are 2.13 for ÍA and 2.08 for KR — about 4.2 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in ÍA vs KR?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 2-2 (7%). Double chance for ÍA or draw is 61%.