ÍA vs Stjarnan Prediction & Preview
Urvalsdeild (Iceland) · Jul 26, 2026 · kickoff 19:15 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
URVALSDEILD (ICELAND)
ÍA vs Stjarnan
Model pick: Stjarnan (41%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.65 – 1.8
Total goals: 3.5
Over 2.5: 61%
Both teams score: 61%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| ÍA | Stjarnan |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.4 / 3.0 | 1.6 / 2.0 |
*ÍA shown at home, Stjarnan shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
ÍA — last 5
LWLLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 22% of the time; 66% of home games go over 2.5.
Stjarnan — last 5
DWDLW
On the road: clean sheet 15% of the time; 62% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | ÍA (home) | Stjarnan (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 22% | 15% |
| Both teams scored | 57% | 70% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 66% | 62% |
Urvalsdeild (Iceland) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.22
Home wins: 46%
Draws: 24%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 62%
BTTS: 61%
Use these Urvalsdeild (Iceland) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.65 vs 1.8):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (9%) |
| Double chance — ÍA or draw (1X) | 58% |
| Double chance — Stjarnan or draw (X2) | 64% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 78% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 86% / 14% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 45% / 55% |
| ÍA clean sheet | 17% |
| Stjarnan clean sheet | 19% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Stjarnan is the model's most likely outcome at
41%. Despite playing away, Stjarnan edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. With expected goals of 3.5, this shapes as an open game (61% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ ÍA vs Stjarnan — FAQ
Who will win ÍA vs Stjarnan?
Our statistical model makes Stjarnan the most likely result at 41%. Full probabilities: ÍA 36%, draw 24%, Stjarnan 41%.
Will both teams score in ÍA vs Stjarnan?
The model gives a 61% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in ÍA vs Stjarnan?
Expected goals are 1.65 for ÍA and 1.8 for Stjarnan — about 3.5 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in ÍA vs Stjarnan?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (9%). Double chance for ÍA or draw is 58%.