ÍA vs Thor Akureyri Prediction & Preview
Urvalsdeild (Iceland) · Aug 09, 2026 · kickoff 18:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
URVALSDEILD (ICELAND)
ÍA vs Thor Akureyri
Model pick: ÍA (55%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 2.51 – 1.54
Total goals: 4.0
Over 2.5: 67%
Both teams score: 63%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| ÍA | Thor Akureyri |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.4 / 2.6 | 1.5 / 2.5 |
*ÍA shown at home, Thor Akureyri shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
ÍA — last 5
LLLWD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 22% of the time; 67% of home games go over 2.5.
Thor Akureyri — last 5
DLWD
On the road: clean sheet 50% of the time; 50% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | ÍA (home) | Thor Akureyri (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 22% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 58% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 50% |
Urvalsdeild (Iceland) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.22
Home wins: 45%
Draws: 24%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 62%
BTTS: 61%
Use these Urvalsdeild (Iceland) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (2.51 vs 1.54):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 2-1 (8%) |
| Double chance — ÍA or draw (1X) | 77% |
| Double chance — Thor Akureyri or draw (X2) | 41% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 81% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 91% / 9% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 58% / 42% |
| ÍA clean sheet | 21% |
| Thor Akureyri clean sheet | 8% |
🎯 Our Verdict
ÍA is the model's most likely outcome at
55%. ÍA are backed at home, where they average 1.7 goals a game. With expected goals of 4.0, this shapes as an open game (67% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ ÍA vs Thor Akureyri — FAQ
Who will win ÍA vs Thor Akureyri?
Our statistical model makes ÍA the most likely result at 55%. Full probabilities: ÍA 55%, draw 21%, Thor Akureyri 24%.
Will both teams score in ÍA vs Thor Akureyri?
The model gives a 63% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in ÍA vs Thor Akureyri?
Expected goals are 2.51 for ÍA and 1.54 for Thor Akureyri — about 4.0 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in ÍA vs Thor Akureyri?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 2-1 (8%). Double chance for ÍA or draw is 77%.