Aalen vs Ulm Prediction & Preview
Regionalliga (Germany) · Sep 08, 2026 · kickoff 17:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
REGIONALLIGA (GERMANY)
Aalen vs Ulm
Model pick: Aalen (51%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.67 – 0.94
Total goals: 2.6
Over 2.5: 50%
Both teams score: 52%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Aalen | Ulm |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.2 / 1.4 | 0.8 / 1.8 |
*Aalen shown at home, Ulm shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Aalen — last 5
DDDLW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 0% of the time; 60% of home games go over 2.5.
Ulm — last 5
LLLDD
On the road: clean sheet 25% of the time; 55% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Aalen (home) | Ulm (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 0% | 25% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 63% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 55% |
Regionalliga (Germany) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.26
Home wins: 35%
Draws: 30%
Away wins: 35%
Over 2.5: 63%
BTTS: 64%
Use these Regionalliga (Germany) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.67 vs 0.94):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (12%) |
| Double chance — Aalen or draw (1X) | 79% |
| Double chance — Ulm or draw (X2) | 45% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 76% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 73% / 27% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 27% / 73% |
| Aalen clean sheet | 39% |
| Ulm clean sheet | 19% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Aalen is the model's most likely outcome at
51%. Aalen are backed at home, where they average 1.4 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (50% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Aalen vs Ulm — FAQ
Who will win Aalen vs Ulm?
Our statistical model makes Aalen the most likely result at 51%. Full probabilities: Aalen 51%, draw 26%, Ulm 23%.
Will both teams score in Aalen vs Ulm?
The model gives a 52% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Aalen vs Ulm?
Expected goals are 1.67 for Aalen and 0.94 for Ulm — about 2.6 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Aalen vs Ulm?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (12%). Double chance for Aalen or draw is 79%.