Aarau vs Stade Nyonnais Prediction & Preview
Challenge League (Switzerland) · Aug 07, 2026 · kickoff 18:15 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
CHALLENGE LEAGUE (SWITZERLAND)
Aarau vs Stade Nyonnais
Model pick: Aarau (68%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 2.2 – 0.9
Total goals: 3.1
Over 2.5: 56%
Both teams score: 58%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Aarau | Stade Nyonnais |
|---|
| League position | #9 (1 pts) | #10 (0 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.0 / 1.0 | 0.0 / 2.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.8 / 1.4 | 1.4 / 2.2 |
*Aarau shown at home, Stade Nyonnais shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Aarau — last 5
DLWLD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 31% of the time; 61% of home games go over 2.5.
Stade Nyonnais — last 5
LDDLL
On the road: clean sheet 18% of the time; 44% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Aarau (home) | Stade Nyonnais (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 0-1-0 in 1 (1.0 / 1.0 goals per game) | 0-0-1 in 1 (0.0 / 2.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 31% | 18% |
| Both teams scored | 59% | 56% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 44% |
Challenge League (Switzerland) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.04
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 24%
Away wins: 32%
Over 2.5: 59%
BTTS: 58%
Use these Challenge League (Switzerland) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (2.2 vs 0.9):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 2-0 (11%) |
| Double chance — Aarau or draw (1X) | 86% |
| Double chance — Stade Nyonnais or draw (X2) | 33% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 81% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 82% / 18% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 37% / 63% |
| Aarau clean sheet | 41% |
| Stade Nyonnais clean sheet | 11% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Aarau is the model's most likely outcome at
68%. Aarau are backed at home, where they average 1.8 goals a game. With expected goals of 3.1, this shapes as an open game (56% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Aarau vs Stade Nyonnais — FAQ
Who will win Aarau vs Stade Nyonnais?
Our statistical model makes Aarau the most likely result at 68%. Full probabilities: Aarau 68%, draw 19%, Stade Nyonnais 14%.
Will both teams score in Aarau vs Stade Nyonnais?
The model gives a 58% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Aarau vs Stade Nyonnais?
Expected goals are 2.2 for Aarau and 0.9 for Stade Nyonnais — about 3.1 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Aarau vs Stade Nyonnais?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 2-0 (11%). Double chance for Aarau or draw is 86%.