Aberdeen vs Hearts Prediction & Preview
Premier League (Scotland) · Aug 01, 2026 · kickoff 16:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
PREMIER LEAGUE (SCOTLAND)
Aberdeen vs Hearts
Model pick: Hearts (50%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.05 – 1.4
Total goals: 2.5
Over 2.5: 48%
Both teams score: 55%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Aberdeen | Hearts |
|---|
| League position | #35 (2 pts) | #3 (0 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.0 / 1.7 | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.6 / 0.4 | 1.2 / 1.6 |
*Aberdeen shown at home, Hearts shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Aberdeen — last 5
WWWWW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 36% of the time; 49% of home games go over 2.5.
Hearts — last 5
LWWLW
On the road: clean sheet 28% of the time; 51% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Aberdeen (home) | Hearts (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 0-1-2 in 3 (1.0 / 1.7 goals per game) | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 36% | 28% |
| Both teams scored | 49% | 48% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 51% |
| Top scorer | – | Claudio Braga (14) |
Premier League (Scotland) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.72
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 24%
Away wins: 32%
Over 2.5: 52%
BTTS: 50%
Use these Premier League (Scotland) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.05 vs 1.4):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (13%) |
| Double chance — Aberdeen or draw (1X) | 55% |
| Double chance — Hearts or draw (X2) | 72% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 73% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 70% / 30% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 23% / 77% |
| Aberdeen clean sheet | 25% |
| Hearts clean sheet | 35% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Hearts is the model's most likely outcome at
50%. Despite playing away, Hearts edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (52% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
🔌 Football Predictions API — for developers
Want this data in your own app or model? Get win probabilities (1X2), expected goals, over/under, BTTS and correct-score for 40+ leagues worldwide via a simple JSON API — the same GoalSoon model behind this page.
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❓ Aberdeen vs Hearts — FAQ
Who will win Aberdeen vs Hearts?
Our statistical model makes Hearts the most likely result at 50%. Full probabilities: Aberdeen 25%, draw 26%, Hearts 50%.
Will both teams score in Aberdeen vs Hearts?
The model gives a 55% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Aberdeen vs Hearts?
Expected goals are 1.05 for Aberdeen and 1.4 for Hearts — about 2.5 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Aberdeen vs Hearts?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (13%). Double chance for Aberdeen or draw is 55%.