Aberdeen vs Kilmarnock Prediction & Preview
Premier League (Scotland) · Sep 05, 2026 · kickoff 14:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
PREMIER LEAGUE (SCOTLAND)
Aberdeen vs Kilmarnock
Model pick: Aberdeen (51%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.56 – 1.09
Total goals: 2.7
Over 2.5: 50%
Both teams score: 56%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Aberdeen | Kilmarnock |
|---|
| League position | #35 (2 pts) | #12 (0 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.0 / 1.7 | 3.0 / 4.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.6 / 0.8 | 1.4 / 3.2 |
*Aberdeen shown at home, Kilmarnock shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Aberdeen — last 5
WWLWL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 36% of the time; 49% of home games go over 2.5.
Kilmarnock — last 5
LLLWL
On the road: clean sheet 22% of the time; 43% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Aberdeen (home) | Kilmarnock (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 0-1-2 in 3 (1.0 / 1.7 goals per game) | 0-0-1 in 1 (3.0 / 4.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 36% | 22% |
| Both teams scored | 48% | 48% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 43% |
| Top scorer | – | Tyreece John-Jules (8) |
Premier League (Scotland) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.72
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 24%
Away wins: 32%
Over 2.5: 52%
BTTS: 50%
Use these Premier League (Scotland) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.56 vs 1.09):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (12%) |
| Double chance — Aberdeen or draw (1X) | 73% |
| Double chance — Kilmarnock or draw (X2) | 52% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 75% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 74% / 26% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 27% / 73% |
| Aberdeen clean sheet | 34% |
| Kilmarnock clean sheet | 21% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Aberdeen is the model's most likely outcome at
51%. Aberdeen are backed at home, where they average 1.6 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (50% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
🔌 Football Predictions API — for developers
Want this data in your own app or model? Get win probabilities (1X2), expected goals, over/under, BTTS and correct-score for 40+ leagues worldwide via a simple JSON API — the same GoalSoon model behind this page.
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❓ Aberdeen vs Kilmarnock — FAQ
Who will win Aberdeen vs Kilmarnock?
Our statistical model makes Aberdeen the most likely result at 51%. Full probabilities: Aberdeen 51%, draw 25%, Kilmarnock 24%.
Will both teams score in Aberdeen vs Kilmarnock?
The model gives a 56% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Aberdeen vs Kilmarnock?
Expected goals are 1.56 for Aberdeen and 1.09 for Kilmarnock — about 2.7 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Aberdeen vs Kilmarnock?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (12%). Double chance for Aberdeen or draw is 73%.