Abu Qir Semad vs Al Ittihad Prediction & Preview
Premier League (Egypt) · Sep 02, 2026 · kickoff 17:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
PREMIER LEAGUE (EGYPT)
Abu Qir Semad vs Al Ittihad
Model pick: Draw (41%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.61 – 0.55
Total goals: 1.2
Over 2.5: 24%
Both teams score: 36%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Abu Qir Semad | Al Ittihad |
|---|
| League position | #3 (58 pts) | #15 (20 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.3 / 0.5 | 0.6 / 1.3 |
| Win rate this season* | 53% | 20% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.5 / 1.0 | 1.2 / 0.6 |
*Abu Qir Semad shown at home, Al Ittihad shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Abu Qir Semad — last 5
WL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 100% of the time; 0% of home games go over 2.5.
Al Ittihad — last 5
WLWDD
On the road: clean sheet 28% of the time; 41% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Abu Qir Semad (home) | Al Ittihad (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 9-5-3 in 17 (1.3 / 0.5 goals per game) | 2-1-7 in 10 (0.6 / 1.3 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 100% | 28% |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 46% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 0% | 41% |
| Top scorer | – | Fady Farid (4) |
Premier League (Egypt) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.27
Home wins: 36%
Draws: 33%
Away wins: 31%
Over 2.5: 40%
BTTS: 47%
Use these Premier League (Egypt) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.61 vs 0.55):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-0 (31%) |
| Double chance — Abu Qir Semad or draw (1X) | 73% |
| Double chance — Al Ittihad or draw (X2) | 69% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 57% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 32% / 68% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 3% / 97% |
| Abu Qir Semad clean sheet | 58% |
| Al Ittihad clean sheet | 54% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Draw is the model's most likely outcome at
41%. The model sees no clear favourite — a draw is live. Goals may be harder to come by (76% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
🔌 Football Predictions API — for developers
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❓ Abu Qir Semad vs Al Ittihad — FAQ
Who will win Abu Qir Semad vs Al Ittihad?
Our statistical model makes Draw the most likely result at 41%. Full probabilities: Abu Qir Semad 31%, draw 41%, Al Ittihad 28%.
Will both teams score in Abu Qir Semad vs Al Ittihad?
The model gives a 36% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Abu Qir Semad vs Al Ittihad?
Expected goals are 0.61 for Abu Qir Semad and 0.55 for Al Ittihad — about 1.2 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Abu Qir Semad vs Al Ittihad?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-0 (31%). Double chance for Abu Qir Semad or draw is 73%.