Academia del Balompie vs Gualberto Villarroel SJ Prediction & Preview
Primera Division (Bolivia) · Aug 22, 2026 · kickoff 19:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
PRIMERA DIVISION (BOLIVIA)
Academia del Balompie vs Gualberto Villarroel SJ
Model pick: Gualberto Villarroel SJ (39%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
39%
Gualberto Villarroel SJ
Expected goals: 1.4 – 1.52
Total goals: 2.9
Over 2.5: 54%
Both teams score: 56%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Academia del Balompie | Gualberto Villarroel SJ |
|---|
| League position | #12 (16 pts) | #14 (12 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 2.0 / 1.6 | 0.7 / 1.7 |
| Win rate this season* | 57% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.6 / 1.6 | 0.8 / 0.8 |
*Academia del Balompie shown at home, Gualberto Villarroel SJ shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Academia del Balompie — last 5
LLDWL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 32% of the time; 53% of home games go over 2.5.
Gualberto Villarroel SJ — last 5
DWDDL
On the road: clean sheet 16% of the time; 58% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Academia del Balompie (home) | Gualberto Villarroel SJ (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 4-0-3 in 7 (2.0 / 1.6 goals per game) | 0-3-3 in 6 (0.7 / 1.7 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 32% | 16% |
| Both teams scored | 53% | 63% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 58% |
| Top scorer | Felipe Fajardo Juan (3) | Alex Caceres (2) |
Primera Division (Bolivia) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.06
Home wins: 55%
Draws: 21%
Away wins: 23%
Over 2.5: 58%
BTTS: 56%
Use these Primera Division (Bolivia) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.4 vs 1.52):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (11%) |
| Double chance — Academia del Balompie or draw (1X) | 60% |
| Double chance — Gualberto Villarroel SJ or draw (X2) | 65% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 75% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 79% / 21% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 33% / 67% |
| Academia del Balompie clean sheet | 22% |
| Gualberto Villarroel SJ clean sheet | 25% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Gualberto Villarroel SJ is the model's most likely outcome at
39%. Despite playing away, Gualberto Villarroel SJ edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (46% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Academia del Balompie vs Gualberto Villarroel SJ — FAQ
Who will win Academia del Balompie vs Gualberto Villarroel SJ?
Our statistical model makes Gualberto Villarroel SJ the most likely result at 39%. Full probabilities: Academia del Balompie 35%, draw 26%, Gualberto Villarroel SJ 39%.
Will both teams score in Academia del Balompie vs Gualberto Villarroel SJ?
The model gives a 56% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Academia del Balompie vs Gualberto Villarroel SJ?
Expected goals are 1.4 for Academia del Balompie and 1.52 for Gualberto Villarroel SJ — about 2.9 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Academia del Balompie vs Gualberto Villarroel SJ?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (11%). Double chance for Academia del Balompie or draw is 60%.