Accrington Stanley vs Crawley Town Prediction & Preview
League Two (England) · Sep 05, 2026 · kickoff 14:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
LEAGUE TWO (ENGLAND)
Accrington Stanley vs Crawley Town
Model pick: Accrington Stanley (43%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.4 – 1.15
Total goals: 2.5
Over 2.5: 49%
Both teams score: 53%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Accrington Stanley | Crawley Town |
|---|
| League position | #22 (1 pts) | #17 (3 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 2.0 / 2.0 | 2.0 / 1.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 100% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.0 / 1.8 | 0.8 / 1.0 |
*Accrington Stanley shown at home, Crawley Town shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Accrington Stanley — last 5
DLDLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 28% of the time; 50% of home games go over 2.5.
Crawley Town — last 5
WLLWL
On the road: clean sheet 20% of the time; 54% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Accrington Stanley (home) | Crawley Town (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 0-1-0 in 1 (2.0 / 2.0 goals per game) | 1-0-0 in 1 (2.0 / 1.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 28% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 55% | 56% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 54% |
League Two (England) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.55
Home wins: 42%
Draws: 27%
Away wins: 31%
Over 2.5: 47%
BTTS: 52%
Use these League Two (England) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.4 vs 1.15):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (13%) |
| Double chance — Accrington Stanley or draw (1X) | 69% |
| Double chance — Crawley Town or draw (X2) | 57% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 74% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 72% / 28% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 25% / 75% |
| Accrington Stanley clean sheet | 32% |
| Crawley Town clean sheet | 25% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Accrington Stanley is the model's most likely outcome at
43%. Accrington Stanley are backed at home, where they average 1.4 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (51% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Accrington Stanley vs Crawley Town — FAQ
Who will win Accrington Stanley vs Crawley Town?
Our statistical model makes Accrington Stanley the most likely result at 43%. Full probabilities: Accrington Stanley 43%, draw 28%, Crawley Town 29%.
Will both teams score in Accrington Stanley vs Crawley Town?
The model gives a 53% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Accrington Stanley vs Crawley Town?
Expected goals are 1.4 for Accrington Stanley and 1.15 for Crawley Town — about 2.5 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Accrington Stanley vs Crawley Town?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (13%). Double chance for Accrington Stanley or draw is 69%.