ADO Den Haag vs Fortuna Sittard Prediction & Preview
Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Sep 06, 2026 · kickoff 14:45 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
EREDIVISIE (NETHERLANDS)
ADO Den Haag vs Fortuna Sittard
Model pick: Fortuna Sittard (42%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.3 – 1.57
Total goals: 2.9
Over 2.5: 53%
Both teams score: 56%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| ADO Den Haag | Fortuna Sittard |
|---|
| League position | #16 (1 pts) | #6 (7 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.0 / 4.0 | 2.5 / 2.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 50% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.8 / 2.2 | 2.0 / 1.6 |
*ADO Den Haag shown at home, Fortuna Sittard shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
ADO Den Haag — last 5
DLLLD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 23% of the time; 65% of home games go over 2.5.
Fortuna Sittard — last 5
WDWLW
On the road: clean sheet 12% of the time; 63% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | ADO Den Haag (home) | Fortuna Sittard (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 0-0-1 in 1 (1.0 / 4.0 goals per game) | 1-1-0 in 2 (2.5 / 2.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 23% | 12% |
| Both teams scored | 62% | 59% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 65% | 63% |
Eredivisie (Netherlands) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.1
Home wins: 45%
Draws: 24%
Away wins: 32%
Over 2.5: 60%
BTTS: 57%
Use these Eredivisie (Netherlands) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.3 vs 1.57):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (12%) |
| Double chance — ADO Den Haag or draw (1X) | 56% |
| Double chance — Fortuna Sittard or draw (X2) | 68% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 75% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 78% / 22% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 32% / 68% |
| ADO Den Haag clean sheet | 21% |
| Fortuna Sittard clean sheet | 27% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Fortuna Sittard is the model's most likely outcome at
42%. Despite playing away, Fortuna Sittard edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (47% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
🔌 Football Predictions API — for developers
Want this data in your own app or model? Get win probabilities (1X2), expected goals, over/under, BTTS and correct-score for 40+ leagues worldwide via a simple JSON API — the same GoalSoon model behind this page.
40+ leagues
1X2 · O/U · BTTS · xG
JSON REST
Free tier available
Get API access on RapidAPI →
❓ ADO Den Haag vs Fortuna Sittard — FAQ
Who will win ADO Den Haag vs Fortuna Sittard?
Our statistical model makes Fortuna Sittard the most likely result at 42%. Full probabilities: ADO Den Haag 32%, draw 26%, Fortuna Sittard 42%.
Will both teams score in ADO Den Haag vs Fortuna Sittard?
The model gives a 56% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in ADO Den Haag vs Fortuna Sittard?
Expected goals are 1.3 for ADO Den Haag and 1.57 for Fortuna Sittard — about 2.9 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in ADO Den Haag vs Fortuna Sittard?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (12%). Double chance for ADO Den Haag or draw is 56%.