ADT vs Alianza Atlético Prediction & Preview
Primera Division (Peru) · Aug 15, 2026 · kickoff 18:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
PRIMERA DIVISION (PERU)
ADT vs Alianza Atlético
Model pick: ADT (45%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.29 – 0.9
Total goals: 2.2
Over 2.5: 44%
Both teams score: 52%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| ADT | Alianza Atlético |
|---|
| League position | #11 (20 pts) | #10 (21 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.0 / 1.6 | 1.8 / 2.0 |
*ADT shown at home, Alianza Atlético shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
ADT — last 5
WLLLD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 42% of the time; 44% of home games go over 2.5.
Alianza Atlético — last 5
WLWLW
On the road: clean sheet 16% of the time; 51% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | ADT (home) | Alianza Atlético (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 42% | 16% |
| Both teams scored | 49% | 49% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% | 51% |
| Top scorer | Jonatan Bauman (4) | Cristian Penilla (4) |
Primera Division (Peru) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.65
Home wins: 49%
Draws: 27%
Away wins: 25%
Over 2.5: 49%
BTTS: 52%
Use these Primera Division (Peru) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.29 vs 0.9):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (14%) |
| Double chance — ADT or draw (1X) | 74% |
| Double chance — Alianza Atlético or draw (X2) | 54% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 72% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 64% / 36% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 18% / 82% |
| ADT clean sheet | 41% |
| Alianza Atlético clean sheet | 28% |
🎯 Our Verdict
ADT is the model's most likely outcome at
45%. ADT are backed at home, where they average 1.5 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (56% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
🔌 Football Predictions API — for developers
Want this data in your own app or model? Get win probabilities (1X2), expected goals, over/under, BTTS and correct-score for 40+ leagues worldwide via a simple JSON API — the same GoalSoon model behind this page.
40+ leagues
1X2 · O/U · BTTS · xG
JSON REST
Free tier available
Get API access on RapidAPI →
❓ ADT vs Alianza Atlético — FAQ
Who will win ADT vs Alianza Atlético?
Our statistical model makes ADT the most likely result at 45%. Full probabilities: ADT 45%, draw 28%, Alianza Atlético 27%.
Will both teams score in ADT vs Alianza Atlético?
The model gives a 52% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in ADT vs Alianza Atlético?
Expected goals are 1.29 for ADT and 0.9 for Alianza Atlético — about 2.2 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in ADT vs Alianza Atlético?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (14%). Double chance for ADT or draw is 74%.