ADT vs Deportivo Garcilaso Prediction & Preview
Primera Division (Peru) · Aug 02, 2026 · kickoff 18:15 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
PRIMERA DIVISION (PERU)
ADT vs Deportivo Garcilaso
Model pick: ADT (45%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.31 – 0.97
Total goals: 2.3
Over 2.5: 45%
Both teams score: 52%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| ADT | Deportivo Garcilaso |
|---|
| League position | #11 (20 pts) | #7 (26 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.0 / 1.2 | 0.6 / 0.6 |
*ADT shown at home, Deportivo Garcilaso shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
ADT — last 5
WDWLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 43% of the time; 44% of home games go over 2.5.
Deportivo Garcilaso — last 5
WDLLW
On the road: clean sheet 28% of the time; 48% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | ADT (home) | Deportivo Garcilaso (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 43% | 28% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 46% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% | 48% |
| Top scorer | Jonatan Bauman (4) | Christopher Olivares (5) |
Primera Division (Peru) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.65
Home wins: 49%
Draws: 27%
Away wins: 25%
Over 2.5: 49%
BTTS: 52%
Use these Primera Division (Peru) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.31 vs 0.97):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (13%) |
| Double chance — ADT or draw (1X) | 72% |
| Double chance — Deportivo Garcilaso or draw (X2) | 56% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 72% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 66% / 34% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 20% / 80% |
| ADT clean sheet | 38% |
| Deportivo Garcilaso clean sheet | 27% |
🎯 Our Verdict
ADT is the model's most likely outcome at
45%. ADT are backed at home, where they average 1.5 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (55% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ ADT vs Deportivo Garcilaso — FAQ
Who will win ADT vs Deportivo Garcilaso?
Our statistical model makes ADT the most likely result at 45%. Full probabilities: ADT 45%, draw 28%, Deportivo Garcilaso 27%.
Will both teams score in ADT vs Deportivo Garcilaso?
The model gives a 52% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in ADT vs Deportivo Garcilaso?
Expected goals are 1.31 for ADT and 0.97 for Deportivo Garcilaso — about 2.3 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in ADT vs Deportivo Garcilaso?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (13%). Double chance for ADT or draw is 72%.