AEK Athens vs Aris Prediction & Preview
Super League (Greece) · Sep 05, 2026 · kickoff 18:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
SUPER LEAGUE (GREECE)
AEK Athens vs Aris
Model pick: AEK Athens (64%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.63 – 0.66
Total goals: 2.3
Over 2.5: 45%
Both teams score: 47%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| AEK Athens | Aris |
|---|
| League position | #3 (13 pts) | #3 (6 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 3.3 / 1.0 | 3.0 / 2.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 67% | 100% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.2 / 0.8 | 2.2 / 2.2 |
*AEK Athens shown at home, Aris shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
AEK Athens — last 5
LDWWD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 57% of the time; 56% of home games go over 2.5.
Aris — last 5
DLWWW
On the road: clean sheet 38% of the time; 39% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | AEK Athens (home) | Aris (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 2-1-0 in 3 (3.3 / 1.0 goals per game) | 1-0-0 in 1 (3.0 / 2.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 57% | 38% |
| Both teams scored | 37% | 42% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 39% |
| Top scorer | Luka Jovic (17) | Angelo Sagal (6) |
Super League (Greece) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.4
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 27%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 44%
BTTS: 44%
Use these Super League (Greece) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.63 vs 0.66):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (17%) |
| Double chance — AEK Athens or draw (1X) | 85% |
| Double chance — Aris or draw (X2) | 39% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 76% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 67% / 33% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 20% / 80% |
| AEK Athens clean sheet | 52% |
| Aris clean sheet | 20% |
🎯 Our Verdict
AEK Athens is the model's most likely outcome at
64%. AEK Athens are backed at home, where they average 2.1 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (55% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
🔌 Football Predictions API — for developers
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❓ AEK Athens vs Aris — FAQ
Who will win AEK Athens vs Aris?
Our statistical model makes AEK Athens the most likely result at 64%. Full probabilities: AEK Athens 64%, draw 22%, Aris 14%.
Will both teams score in AEK Athens vs Aris?
The model gives a 47% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in AEK Athens vs Aris?
Expected goals are 1.63 for AEK Athens and 0.66 for Aris — about 2.3 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in AEK Athens vs Aris?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (17%). Double chance for AEK Athens or draw is 85%.