AEK Athens vs Levski Sofia Prediction & Preview
UEFA Champions League (Europe) · Aug 26, 2026 · kickoff 19:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
UEFA CHAMPIONS LEAGUE (EUROPE)
AEK Athens vs Levski Sofia
Model pick: Draw (44%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.07 – 0.07
Total goals: 0.1
Over 2.5: 1%
Both teams score: 32%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| AEK Athens | Levski Sofia |
|---|
| League position | #3 (13 pts) | #4 (12 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 3.3 / 1.0 | 2.0 / 1.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 67% | 100% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.0 / 1.0 | 1.4 / 0.0 |
*AEK Athens shown at home, Levski Sofia shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
AEK Athens — last 5
LWWLD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 57% of the time; 56% of home games go over 2.5.
Levski Sofia — last 5
WWWWD
On the road: clean sheet 40% of the time; 46% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | AEK Athens (home) | Levski Sofia (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 2-1-0 in 3 (3.3 / 1.0 goals per game) | 1-0-0 in 1 (2.0 / 1.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 57% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 38% | 46% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 46% |
| Top scorer | Luka Jovic (17) | – |
UEFA Champions League (Europe) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.86
Home wins: 52%
Draws: 23%
Away wins: 25%
Over 2.5: 52%
BTTS: 52%
Use these UEFA Champions League (Europe) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.07 vs 0.07):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-0 (87%) |
| Double chance — AEK Athens or draw (1X) | 94% |
| Double chance — Levski Sofia or draw (X2) | 94% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 13% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 1% / 99% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 0% / 100% |
| AEK Athens clean sheet | 93% |
| Levski Sofia clean sheet | 93% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Draw is the model's most likely outcome at
44%. The model sees no clear favourite — a draw is live. Goals may be harder to come by (99% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
🔌 Football Predictions API — for developers
Want this data in your own app or model? Get win probabilities (1X2), expected goals, over/under, BTTS and correct-score for 40+ leagues worldwide via a simple JSON API — the same GoalSoon model behind this page.
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❓ AEK Athens vs Levski Sofia — FAQ
Who will win AEK Athens vs Levski Sofia?
Our statistical model makes Draw the most likely result at 44%. Full probabilities: AEK Athens 43%, draw 44%, Levski Sofia 13%.
Will both teams score in AEK Athens vs Levski Sofia?
The model gives a 32% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in AEK Athens vs Levski Sofia?
Expected goals are 0.07 for AEK Athens and 0.07 for Levski Sofia — about 0.1 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in AEK Athens vs Levski Sofia?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-0 (87%). Double chance for AEK Athens or draw is 94%.