AGF vs Benfica Prediction & Preview
UEFA Europa League (Europe) · Aug 27, 2026 · kickoff 18:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
UEFA EUROPA LEAGUE (EUROPE)
AGF vs Benfica
Model pick: Benfica (62%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.42 – 2.1
Total goals: 3.5
Over 2.5: 61%
Both teams score: 58%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| AGF | Benfica |
|---|
| League position | #10 (2 pts) | #24 (9 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.0 / 1.0 | 0.5 / 1.5 |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 25% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.2 / 2.4 | 3.8 / 1.0 |
*AGF shown at home, Benfica shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
AGF — last 5
DWLLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 31% of the time; 52% of home games go over 2.5.
Benfica — last 5
WDDWW
On the road: clean sheet 46% of the time; 52% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | AGF (home) | Benfica (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 0-1-0 in 1 (1.0 / 1.0 goals per game) | 1-0-3 in 4 (0.5 / 1.5 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 31% | 46% |
| Both teams scored | 58% | 47% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 52% |
| Top scorer | Tobias Bech (12) | – |
UEFA Europa League (Europe) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.68
Home wins: 53%
Draws: 21%
Away wins: 26%
Over 2.5: 53%
BTTS: 41%
Use these UEFA Europa League (Europe) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.42 vs 2.1):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-2 (9%) |
| Double chance — AGF or draw (1X) | 47% |
| Double chance — Benfica or draw (X2) | 74% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 79% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 87% / 13% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 47% / 53% |
| AGF clean sheet | 12% |
| Benfica clean sheet | 24% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Benfica is the model's most likely outcome at
62%. Despite playing away, Benfica edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. With expected goals of 3.5, this shapes as an open game (61% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ AGF vs Benfica — FAQ
Who will win AGF vs Benfica?
Our statistical model makes Benfica the most likely result at 62%. Full probabilities: AGF 18%, draw 20%, Benfica 62%.
Will both teams score in AGF vs Benfica?
The model gives a 58% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in AGF vs Benfica?
Expected goals are 1.42 for AGF and 2.1 for Benfica — about 3.5 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in AGF vs Benfica?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-2 (9%). Double chance for AGF or draw is 47%.