Agropecuario vs Atlético Rafaela Prediction & Preview
Argentino B (Argentina) · Sep 05, 2026 · kickoff 20:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
ARGENTINO B (ARGENTINA)
Agropecuario vs Atlético Rafaela
Model pick: Agropecuario (52%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.11 – 0.36
Total goals: 1.5
Over 2.5: 31%
Both teams score: 36%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Agropecuario | Atlético Rafaela |
|---|
| League position | #15 (29 pts) | #7 (39 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.1 / 0.7 | 0.4 / 1.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 46% | 8% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.4 / 1.0 | 0.6 / 0.2 |
*Agropecuario shown at home, Atlético Rafaela shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Agropecuario — last 5
WLWWL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 75% of the time; 50% of home games go over 2.5.
Atlético Rafaela — last 5
WDWDD
On the road: clean sheet 17% of the time; 50% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Agropecuario (home) | Atlético Rafaela (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 6-4-3 in 13 (1.1 / 0.7 goals per game) | 1-6-6 in 13 (0.4 / 1.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 75% | 17% |
| Both teams scored | 25% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
Argentino B (Argentina) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.11
Home wins: 52%
Draws: 29%
Away wins: 19%
Over 2.5: 36%
BTTS: 43%
Use these Argentino B (Argentina) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.11 vs 0.36):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (26%) |
| Double chance — Agropecuario or draw (1X) | 88% |
| Double chance — Atlético Rafaela or draw (X2) | 45% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 67% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 43% / 57% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 6% / 94% |
| Agropecuario clean sheet | 70% |
| Atlético Rafaela clean sheet | 33% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Agropecuario is the model's most likely outcome at
52%. Agropecuario are backed at home, where they average 1.5 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (69% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Agropecuario vs Atlético Rafaela — FAQ
Who will win Agropecuario vs Atlético Rafaela?
Our statistical model makes Agropecuario the most likely result at 52%. Full probabilities: Agropecuario 52%, draw 34%, Atlético Rafaela 14%.
Will both teams score in Agropecuario vs Atlético Rafaela?
The model gives a 36% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Agropecuario vs Atlético Rafaela?
Expected goals are 1.11 for Agropecuario and 0.36 for Atlético Rafaela — about 1.5 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Agropecuario vs Atlético Rafaela?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (26%). Double chance for Agropecuario or draw is 88%.