Ahrweiler vs Emmelshausen-Karbach Prediction & Preview
Oberliga (Germany) · Aug 14, 2026 · kickoff 17:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
OBERLIGA (GERMANY)
Ahrweiler vs Emmelshausen-Karbach
Model pick: Emmelshausen-Karbach (88%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.23 – 3.14
Total goals: 3.4
Over 2.5: 60%
Both teams score: 36%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Ahrweiler | Emmelshausen-Karbach |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.0 / 2.0 | 2.0 / 2.0 |
*Ahrweiler shown at home, Emmelshausen-Karbach shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Ahrweiler — last 5
LL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 0% of the time; 50% of home games go over 2.5.
Emmelshausen-Karbach — last 5
LW
On the road: clean sheet 0% of the time; 100% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Ahrweiler (home) | Emmelshausen-Karbach (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 0% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 100% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 100% |
Oberliga (Germany) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.05
Home wins: 35%
Draws: 29%
Away wins: 36%
Over 2.5: 58%
BTTS: 54%
Use these Oberliga (Germany) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.23 vs 3.14):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-3 (18%) |
| Double chance — Ahrweiler or draw (1X) | 8% |
| Double chance — Emmelshausen-Karbach or draw (X2) | 99% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 94% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 85% / 15% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 43% / 57% |
| Ahrweiler clean sheet | 4% |
| Emmelshausen-Karbach clean sheet | 79% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Emmelshausen-Karbach is the model's most likely outcome at
88%. Despite playing away, Emmelshausen-Karbach edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. With expected goals of 3.4, this shapes as an open game (60% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Ahrweiler vs Emmelshausen-Karbach — FAQ
Who will win Ahrweiler vs Emmelshausen-Karbach?
Our statistical model makes Emmelshausen-Karbach the most likely result at 88%. Full probabilities: Ahrweiler 2%, draw 9%, Emmelshausen-Karbach 88%.
Will both teams score in Ahrweiler vs Emmelshausen-Karbach?
The model gives a 36% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Ahrweiler vs Emmelshausen-Karbach?
Expected goals are 0.23 for Ahrweiler and 3.14 for Emmelshausen-Karbach — about 3.4 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Ahrweiler vs Emmelshausen-Karbach?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-3 (18%). Double chance for Ahrweiler or draw is 8%.