Al Gharafa vs Al Shahaniya Prediction & Preview
Stars League (Qatar) · Aug 21, 2026 · kickoff 14:15 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
STARS LEAGUE (QATAR)
Al Gharafa vs Al Shahaniya
Model pick: Al Gharafa (51%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.86 – 1.15
Total goals: 3.0
Over 2.5: 55%
Both teams score: 56%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Al Gharafa | Al Shahaniya |
|---|
| League position | #2 (0 pts) | #11 (0 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.8 / 2.2 | 1.2 / 1.2 |
*Al Gharafa shown at home, Al Shahaniya shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Al Gharafa — last 5
LDDLD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 27% of the time; 60% of home games go over 2.5.
Al Shahaniya — last 5
LWDWL
On the road: clean sheet 13% of the time; 70% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Al Gharafa (home) | Al Shahaniya (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 27% | 13% |
| Both teams scored | 61% | 61% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 70% |
| Top scorer | Joselu (3) | Francesco Antonucci (3) |
Stars League (Qatar) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.22
Home wins: 40%
Draws: 21%
Away wins: 39%
Over 2.5: 61%
BTTS: 58%
Use these Stars League (Qatar) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.86 vs 1.15):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (11%) |
| Double chance — Al Gharafa or draw (1X) | 77% |
| Double chance — Al Shahaniya or draw (X2) | 46% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 77% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 80% / 20% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 35% / 65% |
| Al Gharafa clean sheet | 32% |
| Al Shahaniya clean sheet | 16% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Al Gharafa is the model's most likely outcome at
51%. Al Gharafa are backed at home, where they average 1.8 goals a game. With expected goals of 3.0, this shapes as an open game (55% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Al Gharafa vs Al Shahaniya — FAQ
Who will win Al Gharafa vs Al Shahaniya?
Our statistical model makes Al Gharafa the most likely result at 51%. Full probabilities: Al Gharafa 51%, draw 24%, Al Shahaniya 25%.
Will both teams score in Al Gharafa vs Al Shahaniya?
The model gives a 56% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Al Gharafa vs Al Shahaniya?
Expected goals are 1.86 for Al Gharafa and 1.15 for Al Shahaniya — about 3.0 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Al Gharafa vs Al Shahaniya?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (11%). Double chance for Al Gharafa or draw is 77%.