Al Gharafa vs Al Shamal Prediction & Preview
Stars League (Qatar) · Aug 27, 2026 · kickoff 14:15 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
STARS LEAGUE (QATAR)
Al Gharafa vs Al Shamal
Model pick: Al Gharafa (41%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.65 – 1.48
Total goals: 3.1
Over 2.5: 57%
Both teams score: 58%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Al Gharafa | Al Shamal |
|---|
| League position | #1 (3 pts) | #6 (1 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 2.0 / 1.0 | 2.0 / 2.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 100% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.6 / 1.8 | 1.4 / 2.2 |
*Al Gharafa shown at home, Al Shamal shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Al Gharafa — last 5
DDLDD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 26% of the time; 60% of home games go over 2.5.
Al Shamal — last 5
WLLLD
On the road: clean sheet 23% of the time; 54% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Al Gharafa (home) | Al Shamal (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 1-0-0 in 1 (2.0 / 1.0 goals per game) | 0-1-0 in 1 (2.0 / 2.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 26% | 23% |
| Both teams scored | 62% | 62% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 54% |
| Top scorer | Joselu (3) | Baghdad Bounedjah (5) |
Stars League (Qatar) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.22
Home wins: 40%
Draws: 21%
Away wins: 39%
Over 2.5: 61%
BTTS: 58%
Use these Stars League (Qatar) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.65 vs 1.48):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (11%) |
| Double chance — Al Gharafa or draw (1X) | 65% |
| Double chance — Al Shamal or draw (X2) | 58% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 76% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 82% / 18% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 38% / 62% |
| Al Gharafa clean sheet | 23% |
| Al Shamal clean sheet | 19% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Al Gharafa is the model's most likely outcome at
41%. Al Gharafa are backed at home, where they average 1.8 goals a game. With expected goals of 3.1, this shapes as an open game (57% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Al Gharafa vs Al Shamal — FAQ
Who will win Al Gharafa vs Al Shamal?
Our statistical model makes Al Gharafa the most likely result at 41%. Full probabilities: Al Gharafa 41%, draw 25%, Al Shamal 34%.
Will both teams score in Al Gharafa vs Al Shamal?
The model gives a 58% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Al Gharafa vs Al Shamal?
Expected goals are 1.65 for Al Gharafa and 1.48 for Al Shamal — about 3.1 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Al Gharafa vs Al Shamal?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (11%). Double chance for Al Gharafa or draw is 65%.