Al Masry vs Smouha Prediction & Preview
Premier League (Egypt) · Aug 22, 2026 · kickoff 17:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
PREMIER LEAGUE (EGYPT)
Al Masry vs Smouha
Model pick: Al Masry (45%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.23 – 0.88
Total goals: 2.1
Over 2.5: 42%
Both teams score: 44%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Al Masry | Smouha |
|---|
| League position | #5 (32 pts) | #6 (31 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 2.0 / 1.0 | 0.9 / 0.8 |
| Win rate this season* | 60% | 30% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.0 / 1.0 | 0.4 / 1.6 |
*Al Masry shown at home, Smouha shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Al Masry — last 5
DDWWL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 36% of the time; 40% of home games go over 2.5.
Smouha — last 5
LLLLL
On the road: clean sheet 34% of the time; 36% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Al Masry (home) | Smouha (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 6-3-1 in 10 (2.0 / 1.0 goals per game) | 3-4-3 in 10 (0.9 / 0.8 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 36% | 34% |
| Both teams scored | 47% | 45% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 36% |
| Top scorer | Mounder Temine (4) | Pape Badji (4) |
Premier League (Egypt) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.27
Home wins: 36%
Draws: 33%
Away wins: 31%
Over 2.5: 40%
BTTS: 48%
Use these Premier League (Egypt) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.23 vs 0.88):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (15%) |
| Double chance — Al Masry or draw (1X) | 74% |
| Double chance — Smouha or draw (X2) | 56% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 71% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 62% / 38% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 16% / 84% |
| Al Masry clean sheet | 41% |
| Smouha clean sheet | 29% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Al Masry is the model's most likely outcome at
45%. Al Masry are backed at home, where they average 1.2 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (58% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
🔌 Football Predictions API — for developers
Want this data in your own app or model? Get win probabilities (1X2), expected goals, over/under, BTTS and correct-score for 40+ leagues worldwide via a simple JSON API — the same GoalSoon model behind this page.
40+ leagues
1X2 · O/U · BTTS · xG
JSON REST
Free tier available
Get API access on RapidAPI →
❓ Al Masry vs Smouha — FAQ
Who will win Al Masry vs Smouha?
Our statistical model makes Al Masry the most likely result at 45%. Full probabilities: Al Masry 45%, draw 31%, Smouha 24%.
Will both teams score in Al Masry vs Smouha?
The model gives a 44% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Al Masry vs Smouha?
Expected goals are 1.23 for Al Masry and 0.88 for Smouha — about 2.1 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Al Masry vs Smouha?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (15%). Double chance for Al Masry or draw is 74%.