Al Wakrah vs Al Shamal Prediction & Preview
Stars League (Qatar) · Sep 10, 2026 · kickoff 14:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
STARS LEAGUE (QATAR)
Al Wakrah vs Al Shamal
Model pick: Al Wakrah (38%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.42 – 1.48
Total goals: 2.9
Over 2.5: 54%
Both teams score: 60%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Al Wakrah | Al Shamal |
|---|
| League position | #11 (1 pts) | #1 (7 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.5 / 2.0 | 2.5 / 1.5 |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 50% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.8 / 2.8 | 2.8 / 2.4 |
*Al Wakrah shown at home, Al Shamal shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Al Wakrah — last 5
LLDLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 26% of the time; 63% of home games go over 2.5.
Al Shamal — last 5
LDWLW
On the road: clean sheet 23% of the time; 55% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Al Wakrah (home) | Al Shamal (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 0-1-1 in 2 (1.5 / 2.0 goals per game) | 1-1-0 in 2 (2.5 / 1.5 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 26% | 23% |
| Both teams scored | 53% | 62% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 55% |
| Top scorer | Amine Zouhzouh (4) | Baghdad Bounedjah (5) |
Stars League (Qatar) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.23
Home wins: 40%
Draws: 21%
Away wins: 39%
Over 2.5: 61%
BTTS: 58%
Use these Stars League (Qatar) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.42 vs 1.48):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (12%) |
| Double chance — Al Wakrah or draw (1X) | 61% |
| Double chance — Al Shamal or draw (X2) | 64% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 75% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 79% / 21% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 33% / 67% |
| Al Wakrah clean sheet | 23% |
| Al Shamal clean sheet | 24% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Al Wakrah is the model's most likely outcome at
38%. Al Wakrah are backed at home, where they average 1.6 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (46% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Al Wakrah vs Al Shamal — FAQ
Who will win Al Wakrah vs Al Shamal?
Our statistical model makes Al Wakrah the most likely result at 38%. Full probabilities: Al Wakrah 38%, draw 26%, Al Shamal 36%.
Will both teams score in Al Wakrah vs Al Shamal?
The model gives a 60% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Al Wakrah vs Al Shamal?
Expected goals are 1.42 for Al Wakrah and 1.48 for Al Shamal — about 2.9 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Al Wakrah vs Al Shamal?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (12%). Double chance for Al Wakrah or draw is 61%.