Alajuelense vs Escorpiones Prediction & Preview
Primera Division (Costa Rica) · Aug 02, 2026 · kickoff 02:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
PRIMERA DIVISION (COSTA RICA)
Alajuelense vs Escorpiones
Model pick: Escorpiones (78%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.13 – 1.95
Total goals: 2.1
Over 2.5: 42%
Both teams score: 29%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Alajuelense | Escorpiones |
|---|
| League position | #4 (0 pts) | #8 (0 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.6 / 1.4 | 3.0 / 0.0 |
*Alajuelense shown at home, Escorpiones shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Alajuelense — last 5
DWLLD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 44% of the time; 48% of home games go over 2.5.
Escorpiones — last 5
W
On the road: clean sheet 100% of the time; 100% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Alajuelense (home) | Escorpiones (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 44% | 100% |
| Both teams scored | 47% | 0% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 100% |
| Top scorer | Santiago van der Putten (1) | – |
Primera Division (Costa Rica) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.71
Home wins: 46%
Draws: 27%
Away wins: 26%
Over 2.5: 52%
BTTS: 54%
Use these Primera Division (Costa Rica) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.13 vs 1.95):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-1 (24%) |
| Double chance — Alajuelense or draw (1X) | 18% |
| Double chance — Escorpiones or draw (X2) | 98% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 84% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 62% / 38% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 16% / 84% |
| Alajuelense clean sheet | 14% |
| Escorpiones clean sheet | 88% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Escorpiones is the model's most likely outcome at
78%. Despite playing away, Escorpiones edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (58% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Alajuelense vs Escorpiones — FAQ
Who will win Alajuelense vs Escorpiones?
Our statistical model makes Escorpiones the most likely result at 78%. Full probabilities: Alajuelense 3%, draw 19%, Escorpiones 78%.
Will both teams score in Alajuelense vs Escorpiones?
The model gives a 29% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Alajuelense vs Escorpiones?
Expected goals are 0.13 for Alajuelense and 1.95 for Escorpiones — about 2.1 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Alajuelense vs Escorpiones?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-1 (24%). Double chance for Alajuelense or draw is 18%.