Alajuelense vs San Carlos Prediction & Preview
Primera Division (Costa Rica) · Aug 23, 2026 · kickoff 20:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
PRIMERA DIVISION (COSTA RICA)
Alajuelense vs San Carlos
Model pick: Alajuelense (62%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.95 – 0.71
Total goals: 2.7
Over 2.5: 50%
Both teams score: 49%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Alajuelense | San Carlos |
|---|
| League position | #2 (10 pts) | #8 (3 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 2.0 / 1.0 | 0.5 / 2.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 100% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.2 / 0.6 | 0.6 / 1.6 |
*Alajuelense shown at home, San Carlos shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Alajuelense — last 5
WWWWW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 44% of the time; 48% of home games go over 2.5.
San Carlos — last 5
DLLLW
On the road: clean sheet 18% of the time; 54% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Alajuelense (home) | San Carlos (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 2-0-0 in 2 (2.0 / 1.0 goals per game) | 0-0-2 in 2 (0.5 / 2.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 44% | 18% |
| Both teams scored | 47% | 57% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 54% |
| Top scorer | Santiago van der Putten (1) | – |
Primera Division (Costa Rica) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.7
Home wins: 46%
Draws: 27%
Away wins: 26%
Over 2.5: 52%
BTTS: 54%
Use these Primera Division (Costa Rica) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.95 vs 0.71):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (14%) |
| Double chance — Alajuelense or draw (1X) | 87% |
| Double chance — San Carlos or draw (X2) | 33% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 79% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 74% / 26% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 28% / 72% |
| Alajuelense clean sheet | 49% |
| San Carlos clean sheet | 14% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Alajuelense is the model's most likely outcome at
62%. Alajuelense are backed at home, where they average 1.8 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (50% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Alajuelense vs San Carlos — FAQ
Who will win Alajuelense vs San Carlos?
Our statistical model makes Alajuelense the most likely result at 62%. Full probabilities: Alajuelense 62%, draw 23%, San Carlos 15%.
Will both teams score in Alajuelense vs San Carlos?
The model gives a 49% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Alajuelense vs San Carlos?
Expected goals are 1.95 for Alajuelense and 0.71 for San Carlos — about 2.7 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Alajuelense vs San Carlos?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (14%). Double chance for Alajuelense or draw is 87%.