Alanyaspor vs Beşiktaş Prediction & Preview
Super Lig (Turkey) · Aug 23, 2026 · kickoff 18:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
SUPER LIG (TURKEY)
Alanyaspor vs Beşiktaş
Model pick: Beşiktaş (46%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.2 – 1.44
Total goals: 2.6
Over 2.5: 50%
Both teams score: 56%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Alanyaspor | Beşiktaş |
|---|
| League position | #12 (1 pts) | #4 (3 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.4 / 1.2 | 1.2 / 0.0 |
*Alanyaspor shown at home, Beşiktaş shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Alanyaspor — last 5
WLDDD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 30% of the time; 58% of home games go over 2.5.
Beşiktaş — last 5
WWWWW
On the road: clean sheet 29% of the time; 52% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Alanyaspor (home) | Beşiktaş (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 30% | 29% |
| Both teams scored | 59% | 59% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 52% |
Super Lig (Turkey) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.81
Home wins: 45%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 29%
Over 2.5: 54%
BTTS: 56%
Use these Super Lig (Turkey) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.2 vs 1.44):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (12%) |
| Double chance — Alanyaspor or draw (1X) | 57% |
| Double chance — Beşiktaş or draw (X2) | 69% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 74% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 74% / 26% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 27% / 73% |
| Alanyaspor clean sheet | 24% |
| Beşiktaş clean sheet | 30% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Beşiktaş is the model's most likely outcome at
46%. Despite playing away, Beşiktaş edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (50% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Alanyaspor vs Beşiktaş — FAQ
Who will win Alanyaspor vs Beşiktaş?
Our statistical model makes Beşiktaş the most likely result at 46%. Full probabilities: Alanyaspor 27%, draw 26%, Beşiktaş 46%.
Will both teams score in Alanyaspor vs Beşiktaş?
The model gives a 56% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Alanyaspor vs Beşiktaş?
Expected goals are 1.2 for Alanyaspor and 1.44 for Beşiktaş — about 2.6 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Alanyaspor vs Beşiktaş?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (12%). Double chance for Alanyaspor or draw is 57%.