Alaves vs Osasuna Prediction & Preview
LaLiga · Sep 06, 2026 · kickoff 16:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
LALIGA
Alaves vs Osasuna
Model pick: Alaves (42%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.3 – 0.97
Total goals: 2.3
Over 2.5: 45%
Both teams score: 48%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Alaves | Osasuna |
|---|
| League position | #4 (7 pts) | #5 (7 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 2.0 / 0.0 | 2.0 / 1.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 100% | 100% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.0 / 0.4 | 0.8 / 0.8 |
*Alaves shown at home, Osasuna shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Alaves — last 5
WWWDW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 35% of the time; 37% of home games go over 2.5.
Osasuna — last 5
LDDWW
On the road: clean sheet 24% of the time; 38% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Alaves (home) | Osasuna (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 2-0-0 in 2 (2.0 / 0.0 goals per game) | 1-0-0 in 1 (2.0 / 1.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 35% | 24% |
| Both teams scored | 46% | 46% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 37% | 38% |
LaLiga — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.62
Home wins: 46%
Draws: 26%
Away wins: 28%
Over 2.5: 48%
BTTS: 52%
Use these LaLiga averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.3 vs 0.97):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (13%) |
| Double chance — Alaves or draw (1X) | 72% |
| Double chance — Osasuna or draw (X2) | 56% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 72% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 66% / 34% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 19% / 81% |
| Alaves clean sheet | 38% |
| Osasuna clean sheet | 27% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Alaves is the model's most likely outcome at
42%. Alaves are backed at home, where they average 1.1 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (55% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
🔌 Football Predictions API — for developers
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❓ Alaves vs Osasuna — FAQ
Who will win Alaves vs Osasuna?
Our statistical model makes Alaves the most likely result at 42%. Full probabilities: Alaves 42%, draw 30%, Osasuna 28%.
Will both teams score in Alaves vs Osasuna?
The model gives a 48% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Alaves vs Osasuna?
Expected goals are 1.3 for Alaves and 0.97 for Osasuna — about 2.3 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Alaves vs Osasuna?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (13%). Double chance for Alaves or draw is 72%.