Aldosivi vs Unión Prediction & Preview
Primera Division (Argentina) · Aug 21, 2026 · kickoff 17:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
PRIMERA DIVISION (ARGENTINA)
Aldosivi vs Unión
Model pick: Unión (39%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.02 – 1.14
Total goals: 2.2
Over 2.5: 43%
Both teams score: 46%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Aldosivi | Unión |
|---|
| League position | #14 (8 pts) | #8 (21 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 0.4 / 0.6 | 1.6 / 1.9 |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 25% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.6 / 1.2 | 1.0 / 1.6 |
*Aldosivi shown at home, Unión shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Aldosivi — last 5
DLLLD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 30% of the time; 54% of home games go over 2.5.
Unión — last 5
DLWLL
On the road: clean sheet 26% of the time; 39% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Aldosivi (home) | Unión (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 0-7-1 in 8 (0.4 / 0.6 goals per game) | 2-2-4 in 8 (1.6 / 1.9 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 30% | 26% |
| Both teams scored | 48% | 48% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 39% |
| Top scorer | – | Cristian Tarragona (7) |
Primera Division (Argentina) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.22
Home wins: 43%
Draws: 30%
Away wins: 27%
Over 2.5: 38%
BTTS: 44%
Use these Primera Division (Argentina) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.02 vs 1.14):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (13%) |
| Double chance — Aldosivi or draw (1X) | 62% |
| Double chance — Unión or draw (X2) | 68% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 71% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 64% / 36% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 17% / 83% |
| Aldosivi clean sheet | 32% |
| Unión clean sheet | 36% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Unión is the model's most likely outcome at
39%. Despite playing away, Unión edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (57% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Aldosivi vs Unión — FAQ
Who will win Aldosivi vs Unión?
Our statistical model makes Unión the most likely result at 39%. Full probabilities: Aldosivi 30%, draw 31%, Unión 39%.
Will both teams score in Aldosivi vs Unión?
The model gives a 46% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Aldosivi vs Unión?
Expected goals are 1.02 for Aldosivi and 1.14 for Unión — about 2.2 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Aldosivi vs Unión?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (13%). Double chance for Aldosivi or draw is 62%.