Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Tepatitlán Prediction & Preview
Primera A (Mexico) · Aug 14, 2026 · kickoff 01:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
PRIMERA A (MEXICO)
Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Tepatitlán
Model pick: Tepatitlán (39%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.26 – 1.37
Total goals: 2.6
Over 2.5: 50%
Both teams score: 53%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Alebrijes de Oaxaca | Tepatitlán |
|---|
| League position | #11 (3 pts) | #16 (0 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 0.0 / 2.0 | 1.0 / 3.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.2 / 1.4 | 0.8 / 2.4 |
*Alebrijes de Oaxaca shown at home, Tepatitlán shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Alebrijes de Oaxaca — last 5
LLWLW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 34% of the time; 47% of home games go over 2.5.
Tepatitlán — last 5
WLLLL
On the road: clean sheet 19% of the time; 39% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Alebrijes de Oaxaca (home) | Tepatitlán (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 0-0-1 in 1 (0.0 / 2.0 goals per game) | 0-0-1 in 1 (1.0 / 3.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 34% | 19% |
| Both teams scored | 51% | 52% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 39% |
Primera A (Mexico) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.53
Home wins: 46%
Draws: 28%
Away wins: 26%
Over 2.5: 47%
BTTS: 52%
Use these Primera A (Mexico) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.26 vs 1.37):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (12%) |
| Double chance — Alebrijes de Oaxaca or draw (1X) | 61% |
| Double chance — Tepatitlán or draw (X2) | 66% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 74% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 74% / 26% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 27% / 73% |
| Alebrijes de Oaxaca clean sheet | 25% |
| Tepatitlán clean sheet | 28% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Tepatitlán is the model's most likely outcome at
39%. Despite playing away, Tepatitlán edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (50% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Tepatitlán — FAQ
Who will win Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Tepatitlán?
Our statistical model makes Tepatitlán the most likely result at 39%. Full probabilities: Alebrijes de Oaxaca 32%, draw 29%, Tepatitlán 39%.
Will both teams score in Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Tepatitlán?
The model gives a 53% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Tepatitlán?
Expected goals are 1.26 for Alebrijes de Oaxaca and 1.37 for Tepatitlán — about 2.6 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Tepatitlán?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (12%). Double chance for Alebrijes de Oaxaca or draw is 61%.