Žalgiris vs FA Šiauliai Prediction & Preview
A Lyga (Lithuania) · Sep 06, 2026 · kickoff 16:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
A LYGA (LITHUANIA)
Žalgiris vs FA Šiauliai
Model pick: Žalgiris (62%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 2.33 – 1.01
Total goals: 3.3
Over 2.5: 59%
Both teams score: 56%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Žalgiris | FA Šiauliai |
|---|
| League position | #6 (37 pts) | #9 (16 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.9 / 1.5 | 0.9 / 1.9 |
| Win rate this season* | 50% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.2 / 2.8 | 1.2 / 2.4 |
*Žalgiris shown at home, FA Šiauliai shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Žalgiris — last 5
LLLWL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 44% of the time; 63% of home games go over 2.5.
FA Šiauliai — last 5
LLWLL
On the road: clean sheet 26% of the time; 54% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Žalgiris (home) | FA Šiauliai (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 6-1-5 in 12 (1.9 / 1.5 goals per game) | 0-6-7 in 13 (0.9 / 1.9 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 44% | 26% |
| Both teams scored | 52% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 54% |
A Lyga (Lithuania) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.64
Home wins: 41%
Draws: 24%
Away wins: 35%
Over 2.5: 49%
BTTS: 47%
Use these A Lyga (Lithuania) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (2.33 vs 1.01):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 2-1 (10%) |
| Double chance — Žalgiris or draw (1X) | 85% |
| Double chance — FA Šiauliai or draw (X2) | 33% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 82% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 85% / 15% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 43% / 57% |
| Žalgiris clean sheet | 36% |
| FA Šiauliai clean sheet | 10% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Žalgiris is the model's most likely outcome at
62%. Žalgiris are backed at home, where they average 2.2 goals a game. With expected goals of 3.3, this shapes as an open game (59% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Žalgiris vs FA Šiauliai — FAQ
Who will win Žalgiris vs FA Šiauliai?
Our statistical model makes Žalgiris the most likely result at 62%. Full probabilities: Žalgiris 62%, draw 21%, FA Šiauliai 17%.
Will both teams score in Žalgiris vs FA Šiauliai?
The model gives a 56% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Žalgiris vs FA Šiauliai?
Expected goals are 2.33 for Žalgiris and 1.01 for FA Šiauliai — about 3.3 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Žalgiris vs FA Šiauliai?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 2-1 (10%). Double chance for Žalgiris or draw is 85%.