Alhaurino vs Granada II Prediction & Preview
Tercera (Spain) · Sep 06, 2026 · kickoff 10:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
TERCERA (SPAIN)
Alhaurino vs Granada II
Model pick: Alhaurino (45%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.55 – 1.13
Total goals: 2.7
Over 2.5: 51%
Both teams score: 54%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Alhaurino | Granada II |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.8 / 0.6 | 2.2 / 2.2 |
*Alhaurino shown at home, Granada II shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Alhaurino — last 5
WLWWD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 22% of the time; 50% of home games go over 2.5.
Granada II — last 5
DLDWD
On the road: clean sheet 24% of the time; 40% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Alhaurino (home) | Granada II (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 22% | 24% |
| Both teams scored | 61% | 47% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 40% |
Tercera (Spain) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.49
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 27%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 45%
BTTS: 46%
Use these Tercera (Spain) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.55 vs 1.13):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (12%) |
| Double chance — Alhaurino or draw (1X) | 72% |
| Double chance — Granada II or draw (X2) | 53% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 75% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 75% / 25% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 28% / 72% |
| Alhaurino clean sheet | 32% |
| Granada II clean sheet | 21% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Alhaurino is the model's most likely outcome at
45%. Alhaurino are backed at home, where they average 1.3 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (49% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Alhaurino vs Granada II — FAQ
Who will win Alhaurino vs Granada II?
Our statistical model makes Alhaurino the most likely result at 45%. Full probabilities: Alhaurino 45%, draw 26%, Granada II 28%.
Will both teams score in Alhaurino vs Granada II?
The model gives a 54% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Alhaurino vs Granada II?
Expected goals are 1.55 for Alhaurino and 1.13 for Granada II — about 2.7 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Alhaurino vs Granada II?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (12%). Double chance for Alhaurino or draw is 72%.