Alianza Lima vs Alianza Atlético Prediction & Preview
Primera Division (Peru) · Aug 02, 2026 · kickoff 01:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
PRIMERA DIVISION (PERU)
Alianza Lima vs Alianza Atlético
Model pick: Alianza Lima (64%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.75 – 0.61
Total goals: 2.4
Over 2.5: 46%
Both teams score: 45%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Alianza Lima | Alianza Atlético |
|---|
| League position | #1 (43 pts) | #10 (21 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.6 / 1.8 | 2.0 / 1.6 |
*Alianza Lima shown at home, Alianza Atlético shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Alianza Lima — last 5
DDLWD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 47% of the time; 45% of home games go over 2.5.
Alianza Atlético — last 5
WWWLW
On the road: clean sheet 16% of the time; 50% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Alianza Lima (home) | Alianza Atlético (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 47% | 16% |
| Both teams scored | 44% | 49% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 50% |
| Top scorer | – | Cristian Penilla (4) |
Primera Division (Peru) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.65
Home wins: 49%
Draws: 27%
Away wins: 25%
Over 2.5: 49%
BTTS: 52%
Use these Primera Division (Peru) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.75 vs 0.61):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (17%) |
| Double chance — Alianza Lima or draw (1X) | 88% |
| Double chance — Alianza Atlético or draw (X2) | 35% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 77% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 68% / 32% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 21% / 79% |
| Alianza Lima clean sheet | 54% |
| Alianza Atlético clean sheet | 17% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Alianza Lima is the model's most likely outcome at
64%. Alianza Lima are backed at home, where they average 1.8 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (54% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
🔌 Football Predictions API — for developers
Want this data in your own app or model? Get win probabilities (1X2), expected goals, over/under, BTTS and correct-score for 40+ leagues worldwide via a simple JSON API — the same GoalSoon model behind this page.
40+ leagues
1X2 · O/U · BTTS · xG
JSON REST
Free tier available
Get API access on RapidAPI →
❓ Alianza Lima vs Alianza Atlético — FAQ
Who will win Alianza Lima vs Alianza Atlético?
Our statistical model makes Alianza Lima the most likely result at 64%. Full probabilities: Alianza Lima 64%, draw 23%, Alianza Atlético 13%.
Will both teams score in Alianza Lima vs Alianza Atlético?
The model gives a 45% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Alianza Lima vs Alianza Atlético?
Expected goals are 1.75 for Alianza Lima and 0.61 for Alianza Atlético — about 2.4 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Alianza Lima vs Alianza Atlético?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (17%). Double chance for Alianza Lima or draw is 88%.