Alianza Lima vs Deportivo Garcilaso Prediction & Preview
Primera Division (Peru) · Aug 29, 2026 · kickoff 20:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
PRIMERA DIVISION (PERU)
Alianza Lima vs Deportivo Garcilaso
Model pick: Alianza Lima (58%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.67 – 0.66
Total goals: 2.3
Over 2.5: 46%
Both teams score: 47%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Alianza Lima | Deportivo Garcilaso |
|---|
| League position | #1 (43 pts) | #7 (26 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.8 / 1.0 | 1.8 / 0.4 |
*Alianza Lima shown at home, Deportivo Garcilaso shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Alianza Lima — last 5
WDWDW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 47% of the time; 45% of home games go over 2.5.
Deportivo Garcilaso — last 5
WWWDW
On the road: clean sheet 30% of the time; 46% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Alianza Lima (home) | Deportivo Garcilaso (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 47% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 44% | 45% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 46% |
| Top scorer | – | Christopher Olivares (6) |
Primera Division (Peru) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.65
Home wins: 49%
Draws: 27%
Away wins: 25%
Over 2.5: 49%
BTTS: 52%
Use these Primera Division (Peru) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.67 vs 0.66):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (16%) |
| Double chance — Alianza Lima or draw (1X) | 86% |
| Double chance — Deportivo Garcilaso or draw (X2) | 38% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 76% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 68% / 32% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 21% / 79% |
| Alianza Lima clean sheet | 52% |
| Deportivo Garcilaso clean sheet | 19% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Alianza Lima is the model's most likely outcome at
58%. Alianza Lima are backed at home, where they average 1.8 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (54% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Alianza Lima vs Deportivo Garcilaso — FAQ
Who will win Alianza Lima vs Deportivo Garcilaso?
Our statistical model makes Alianza Lima the most likely result at 58%. Full probabilities: Alianza Lima 58%, draw 26%, Deportivo Garcilaso 17%.
Will both teams score in Alianza Lima vs Deportivo Garcilaso?
The model gives a 47% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Alianza Lima vs Deportivo Garcilaso?
Expected goals are 1.67 for Alianza Lima and 0.66 for Deportivo Garcilaso — about 2.3 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Alianza Lima vs Deportivo Garcilaso?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (16%). Double chance for Alianza Lima or draw is 86%.