Alianza Lima vs UTC Cajamarca Prediction & Preview
Primera Division (Peru) · Aug 15, 2026 · kickoff 20:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
PRIMERA DIVISION (PERU)
Alianza Lima vs UTC Cajamarca
Model pick: Alianza Lima (70%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 2.24 – 0.56
Total goals: 2.8
Over 2.5: 52%
Both teams score: 47%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Alianza Lima | UTC Cajamarca |
|---|
| League position | #1 (43 pts) | #18 (13 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.6 / 1.4 | 1.4 / 1.8 |
*Alianza Lima shown at home, UTC Cajamarca shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Alianza Lima — last 5
LWDWD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 47% of the time; 46% of home games go over 2.5.
UTC Cajamarca — last 5
WLDLD
On the road: clean sheet 19% of the time; 42% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Alianza Lima (home) | UTC Cajamarca (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 47% | 19% |
| Both teams scored | 45% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 42% |
| Top scorer | – | Marlon de Jesus (4) |
Primera Division (Peru) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.65
Home wins: 49%
Draws: 27%
Away wins: 25%
Over 2.5: 49%
BTTS: 52%
Use these Primera Division (Peru) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (2.24 vs 0.56):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 2-0 (15%) |
| Double chance — Alianza Lima or draw (1X) | 92% |
| Double chance — UTC Cajamarca or draw (X2) | 24% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 84% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 77% / 23% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 31% / 69% |
| Alianza Lima clean sheet | 57% |
| UTC Cajamarca clean sheet | 11% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Alianza Lima is the model's most likely outcome at
70%. Alianza Lima are backed at home, where they average 1.8 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (48% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Alianza Lima vs UTC Cajamarca — FAQ
Who will win Alianza Lima vs UTC Cajamarca?
Our statistical model makes Alianza Lima the most likely result at 70%. Full probabilities: Alianza Lima 70%, draw 19%, UTC Cajamarca 10%.
Will both teams score in Alianza Lima vs UTC Cajamarca?
The model gives a 47% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Alianza Lima vs UTC Cajamarca?
Expected goals are 2.24 for Alianza Lima and 0.56 for UTC Cajamarca — about 2.8 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Alianza Lima vs UTC Cajamarca?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 2-0 (15%). Double chance for Alianza Lima or draw is 92%.