Alianza Petrolera vs Deportes Tolima Prediction & Preview
Primera Division (Colombia) · Aug 01, 2026 · kickoff 21:05 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
PRIMERA DIVISION (COLOMBIA)
Alianza Petrolera vs Deportes Tolima
Model pick: Deportes Tolima (37%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.98 – 1.22
Total goals: 2.2
Over 2.5: 44%
Both teams score: 49%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Alianza Petrolera | Deportes Tolima |
|---|
| League position | #17 (17 pts) | #3 (37 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.2 / 0.4 | 1.0 / 1.2 |
*Alianza Petrolera shown at home, Deportes Tolima shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Alianza Petrolera — last 5
WWWLD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 35% of the time; 45% of home games go over 2.5.
Deportes Tolima — last 5
WLLWW
On the road: clean sheet 32% of the time; 39% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Alianza Petrolera (home) | Deportes Tolima (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 35% | 32% |
| Both teams scored | 46% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 39% |
Primera Division (Colombia) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.26
Home wins: 47%
Draws: 30%
Away wins: 24%
Over 2.5: 40%
BTTS: 47%
Use these Primera Division (Colombia) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.98 vs 1.22):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-1 (14%) |
| Double chance — Alianza Petrolera or draw (1X) | 58% |
| Double chance — Deportes Tolima or draw (X2) | 70% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 71% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 65% / 35% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 18% / 82% |
| Alianza Petrolera clean sheet | 30% |
| Deportes Tolima clean sheet | 38% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Deportes Tolima is the model's most likely outcome at
37%. Despite playing away, Deportes Tolima edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (56% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Alianza Petrolera vs Deportes Tolima — FAQ
Who will win Alianza Petrolera vs Deportes Tolima?
Our statistical model makes Deportes Tolima the most likely result at 37%. Full probabilities: Alianza Petrolera 33%, draw 30%, Deportes Tolima 37%.
Will both teams score in Alianza Petrolera vs Deportes Tolima?
The model gives a 49% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Alianza Petrolera vs Deportes Tolima?
Expected goals are 0.98 for Alianza Petrolera and 1.22 for Deportes Tolima — about 2.2 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Alianza Petrolera vs Deportes Tolima?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-1 (14%). Double chance for Alianza Petrolera or draw is 58%.