Alianza Petrolera vs Deportivo Pereira Prediction & Preview
Primera Division (Colombia) · Aug 22, 2026 · kickoff 00:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
PRIMERA DIVISION (COLOMBIA)
Alianza Petrolera vs Deportivo Pereira
Model pick: Alianza Petrolera (43%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.36 – 1.03
Total goals: 2.4
Over 2.5: 47%
Both teams score: 51%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Alianza Petrolera | Deportivo Pereira |
|---|
| League position | #17 (17 pts) | #20 (10 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.2 / 1.4 | 0.2 / 2.6 |
*Alianza Petrolera shown at home, Deportivo Pereira shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Alianza Petrolera — last 5
WLDLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 34% of the time; 45% of home games go over 2.5.
Deportivo Pereira — last 5
LLLLD
On the road: clean sheet 21% of the time; 40% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Alianza Petrolera (home) | Deportivo Pereira (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 34% | 21% |
| Both teams scored | 46% | 46% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 40% |
| Top scorer | Jesus Munoz (3) | Yuber Quinones (4) |
Primera Division (Colombia) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.27
Home wins: 47%
Draws: 30%
Away wins: 24%
Over 2.5: 40%
BTTS: 47%
Use these Primera Division (Colombia) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.36 vs 1.03):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (13%) |
| Double chance — Alianza Petrolera or draw (1X) | 72% |
| Double chance — Deportivo Pereira or draw (X2) | 56% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 73% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 69% / 31% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 22% / 78% |
| Alianza Petrolera clean sheet | 36% |
| Deportivo Pereira clean sheet | 26% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Alianza Petrolera is the model's most likely outcome at
43%. Alianza Petrolera are backed at home, where they average 1.3 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (53% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
🔌 Football Predictions API — for developers
Want this data in your own app or model? Get win probabilities (1X2), expected goals, over/under, BTTS and correct-score for 40+ leagues worldwide via a simple JSON API — the same GoalSoon model behind this page.
40+ leagues
1X2 · O/U · BTTS · xG
JSON REST
Free tier available
Get API access on RapidAPI →
❓ Alianza Petrolera vs Deportivo Pereira — FAQ
Who will win Alianza Petrolera vs Deportivo Pereira?
Our statistical model makes Alianza Petrolera the most likely result at 43%. Full probabilities: Alianza Petrolera 43%, draw 28%, Deportivo Pereira 29%.
Will both teams score in Alianza Petrolera vs Deportivo Pereira?
The model gives a 51% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Alianza Petrolera vs Deportivo Pereira?
Expected goals are 1.36 for Alianza Petrolera and 1.03 for Deportivo Pereira — about 2.4 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Alianza Petrolera vs Deportivo Pereira?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (13%). Double chance for Alianza Petrolera or draw is 72%.