Alianza Petrolera vs Fortaleza CEIF Prediction & Preview
Primera Division (Colombia) · Jul 26, 2026 · kickoff 23:10 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
PRIMERA DIVISION (COLOMBIA)
Alianza Petrolera vs Fortaleza CEIF
Model pick: Alianza Petrolera (42%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.22 – 0.91
Total goals: 2.1
Over 2.5: 43%
Both teams score: 48%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Alianza Petrolera | Fortaleza CEIF |
|---|
| League position | #17 (17 pts) | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.0 / 0.4 | 0.6 / 1.8 |
*Alianza Petrolera shown at home, Fortaleza CEIF shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Alianza Petrolera — last 5
LWWWL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 35% of the time; 45% of home games go over 2.5.
Fortaleza CEIF — last 5
LWLLL
On the road: clean sheet 21% of the time; 44% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Alianza Petrolera (home) | Fortaleza CEIF (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 35% | 21% |
| Both teams scored | 46% | 44% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 44% |
Primera Division (Colombia) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.26
Home wins: 47%
Draws: 30%
Away wins: 24%
Over 2.5: 40%
BTTS: 47%
Use these Primera Division (Colombia) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.22 vs 0.91):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (14%) |
| Double chance — Alianza Petrolera or draw (1X) | 72% |
| Double chance — Fortaleza CEIF or draw (X2) | 57% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 71% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 63% / 37% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 17% / 83% |
| Alianza Petrolera clean sheet | 40% |
| Fortaleza CEIF clean sheet | 30% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Alianza Petrolera is the model's most likely outcome at
42%. Alianza Petrolera are backed at home, where they average 1.3 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (57% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Alianza Petrolera vs Fortaleza CEIF — FAQ
Who will win Alianza Petrolera vs Fortaleza CEIF?
Our statistical model makes Alianza Petrolera the most likely result at 42%. Full probabilities: Alianza Petrolera 42%, draw 30%, Fortaleza CEIF 28%.
Will both teams score in Alianza Petrolera vs Fortaleza CEIF?
The model gives a 48% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Alianza Petrolera vs Fortaleza CEIF?
Expected goals are 1.22 for Alianza Petrolera and 0.91 for Fortaleza CEIF — about 2.1 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Alianza Petrolera vs Fortaleza CEIF?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (14%). Double chance for Alianza Petrolera or draw is 72%.