Almagro vs Gimnasia Jujuy Prediction & Preview
Argentino B (Argentina) · Sep 05, 2026 · kickoff 20:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
ARGENTINO B (ARGENTINA)
Almagro vs Gimnasia Jujuy
Model pick: Almagro (59%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.86 – 0.75
Total goals: 2.6
Over 2.5: 50%
Both teams score: 50%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Almagro | Gimnasia Jujuy |
|---|
| League position | #13 (31 pts) | #2 (45 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.0 / 0.7 | 1.1 / 1.8 |
| Win rate this season* | 46% | 23% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.4 / 1.2 | 1.0 / 1.8 |
*Almagro shown at home, Gimnasia Jujuy shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Almagro — last 5
DLDLD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 50% of the time; 0% of home games go over 2.5.
Gimnasia Jujuy — last 5
LLLWD
On the road: clean sheet 0% of the time; 67% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Almagro (home) | Gimnasia Jujuy (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 6-3-4 in 13 (1.0 / 0.7 goals per game) | 3-4-6 in 13 (1.1 / 1.8 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 50% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 25% | 67% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 0% | 67% |
Argentino B (Argentina) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.11
Home wins: 52%
Draws: 29%
Away wins: 19%
Over 2.5: 36%
BTTS: 43%
Use these Argentino B (Argentina) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.86 vs 0.75):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (14%) |
| Double chance — Almagro or draw (1X) | 86% |
| Double chance — Gimnasia Jujuy or draw (X2) | 36% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 78% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 73% / 27% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 27% / 73% |
| Almagro clean sheet | 47% |
| Gimnasia Jujuy clean sheet | 16% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Almagro is the model's most likely outcome at
59%. Almagro are backed at home, where they average 0.5 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (50% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Almagro vs Gimnasia Jujuy — FAQ
Who will win Almagro vs Gimnasia Jujuy?
Our statistical model makes Almagro the most likely result at 59%. Full probabilities: Almagro 59%, draw 24%, Gimnasia Jujuy 17%.
Will both teams score in Almagro vs Gimnasia Jujuy?
The model gives a 50% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Almagro vs Gimnasia Jujuy?
Expected goals are 1.86 for Almagro and 0.75 for Gimnasia Jujuy — about 2.6 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Almagro vs Gimnasia Jujuy?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (14%). Double chance for Almagro or draw is 86%.