Almería vs Eldense Prediction & Preview
Segunda (Spain) · Aug 17, 2026 · kickoff 19:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
SEGUNDA (SPAIN)
Almería vs Eldense
Model pick: Almería (68%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 2.32 – 1.01
Total goals: 3.3
Over 2.5: 59%
Both teams score: 50%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Almería | Eldense |
|---|
| League position | #11 (0 pts) | #21 (0 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.4 / 0.6 | 1.6 / 1.4 |
*Almería shown at home, Eldense shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Almería — last 5
WLLWW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 33% of the time; 53% of home games go over 2.5.
Eldense — last 5
WLLLW
On the road: clean sheet 25% of the time; 41% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Almería (home) | Eldense (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 33% | 25% |
| Both teams scored | 53% | 43% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 41% |
Segunda (Spain) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.29
Home wins: 45%
Draws: 30%
Away wins: 25%
Over 2.5: 40%
BTTS: 48%
Use these Segunda (Spain) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (2.32 vs 1.01):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 2-1 (10%) |
| Double chance — Almería or draw (1X) | 85% |
| Double chance — Eldense or draw (X2) | 33% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 82% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 84% / 16% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 43% / 57% |
| Almería clean sheet | 36% |
| Eldense clean sheet | 10% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Almería is the model's most likely outcome at
68%. Almería are backed at home, where they average 1.6 goals a game. With expected goals of 3.3, this shapes as an open game (59% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
🔌 Football Predictions API — for developers
Want this data in your own app or model? Get win probabilities (1X2), expected goals, over/under, BTTS and correct-score for 40+ leagues worldwide via a simple JSON API — the same GoalSoon model behind this page.
40+ leagues
1X2 · O/U · BTTS · xG
JSON REST
Free tier available
Get API access on RapidAPI →
❓ Almería vs Eldense — FAQ
Who will win Almería vs Eldense?
Our statistical model makes Almería the most likely result at 68%. Full probabilities: Almería 68%, draw 19%, Eldense 13%.
Will both teams score in Almería vs Eldense?
The model gives a 50% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Almería vs Eldense?
Expected goals are 2.32 for Almería and 1.01 for Eldense — about 3.3 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Almería vs Eldense?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 2-1 (10%). Double chance for Almería or draw is 85%.