Almere City vs Ajax II Prediction & Preview
Eerste Divisie (Netherlands) · Sep 04, 2026 · kickoff 18:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
EERSTE DIVISIE (NETHERLANDS)
Almere City vs Ajax II
Model pick: Almere City (58%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 2.34 – 1.24
Total goals: 3.6
Over 2.5: 62%
Both teams score: 59%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Almere City | Ajax II |
|---|
| League position | #9 (0 pts) | #18 (0 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.2 / 1.4 | 2.0 / 3.2 |
*Almere City shown at home, Ajax II shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Almere City — last 5
LDWWW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 31% of the time; 59% of home games go over 2.5.
Ajax II — last 5
LLLLW
On the road: clean sheet 12% of the time; 73% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Almere City (home) | Ajax II (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 31% | 12% |
| Both teams scored | 54% | 72% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 73% |
| Top scorer | – | Kayden Wolff (5) |
Eerste Divisie (Netherlands) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.15
Home wins: 46%
Draws: 23%
Away wins: 32%
Over 2.5: 61%
BTTS: 60%
Use these Eerste Divisie (Netherlands) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (2.34 vs 1.24):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 2-1 (9%) |
| Double chance — Almere City or draw (1X) | 81% |
| Double chance — Ajax II or draw (X2) | 38% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 81% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 87% / 13% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 48% / 52% |
| Almere City clean sheet | 29% |
| Ajax II clean sheet | 10% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Almere City is the model's most likely outcome at
58%. Almere City are backed at home, where they average 1.7 goals a game. With expected goals of 3.6, this shapes as an open game (62% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Almere City vs Ajax II — FAQ
Who will win Almere City vs Ajax II?
Our statistical model makes Almere City the most likely result at 58%. Full probabilities: Almere City 58%, draw 21%, Ajax II 21%.
Will both teams score in Almere City vs Ajax II?
The model gives a 59% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Almere City vs Ajax II?
Expected goals are 2.34 for Almere City and 1.24 for Ajax II — about 3.6 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Almere City vs Ajax II?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 2-1 (9%). Double chance for Almere City or draw is 81%.