Almudévar vs Ejea Prediction & Preview
Tercera (Spain) · Sep 06, 2026 · kickoff 15:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
TERCERA (SPAIN)
Almudévar vs Ejea
Model pick: Almudévar (37%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.09 – 0.96
Total goals: 2.0
Over 2.5: 41%
Both teams score: 48%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Almudévar | Ejea |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.8 / 1.4 | 1.6 / 0.8 |
*Almudévar shown at home, Ejea shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Almudévar — last 5
WLLLW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 32% of the time; 39% of home games go over 2.5.
Ejea — last 5
DLWDW
On the road: clean sheet 28% of the time; 36% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Almudévar (home) | Ejea (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 32% | 28% |
| Both teams scored | 47% | 48% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 39% | 36% |
Tercera (Spain) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.49
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 27%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 45%
BTTS: 46%
Use these Tercera (Spain) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.09 vs 0.96):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (14%) |
| Double chance — Almudévar or draw (1X) | 69% |
| Double chance — Ejea or draw (X2) | 62% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 70% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 61% / 39% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 15% / 85% |
| Almudévar clean sheet | 38% |
| Ejea clean sheet | 34% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Almudévar is the model's most likely outcome at
37%. Almudévar are backed at home, where they average 1.2 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (59% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Almudévar vs Ejea — FAQ
Who will win Almudévar vs Ejea?
Our statistical model makes Almudévar the most likely result at 37%. Full probabilities: Almudévar 37%, draw 31%, Ejea 32%.
Will both teams score in Almudévar vs Ejea?
The model gives a 48% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Almudévar vs Ejea?
Expected goals are 1.09 for Almudévar and 0.96 for Ejea — about 2.0 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Almudévar vs Ejea?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (14%). Double chance for Almudévar or draw is 69%.