Aluminij vs Celje Prediction & Preview
1-SNL (Slovenia) · Jul 25, 2026 · kickoff 16:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
1-SNL (SLOVENIA)
Aluminij vs Celje
Model pick: Celje (61%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.01 – 2.29
Total goals: 3.3
Over 2.5: 59%
Both teams score: 56%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Aluminij | Celje |
|---|
| League position | #7 (1 pts) | #13 (10 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 0.0 / 0.0 | 1.0 / 1.7 |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 33% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.4 / 0.8 | 2.2 / 2.0 |
*Aluminij shown at home, Celje shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Aluminij — last 5
LDLDD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 26% of the time; 51% of home games go over 2.5.
Celje — last 5
DWDDD
On the road: clean sheet 32% of the time; 52% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Aluminij (home) | Celje (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 0-1-0 in 1 (0.0 / 0.0 goals per game) | 1-0-2 in 3 (1.0 / 1.7 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 26% | 32% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 51% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 52% |
1-SNL (Slovenia) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.72
Home wins: 41%
Draws: 26%
Away wins: 32%
Over 2.5: 51%
BTTS: 52%
Use these 1-SNL (Slovenia) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.01 vs 2.29):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-2 (10%) |
| Double chance — Aluminij or draw (1X) | 34% |
| Double chance — Celje or draw (X2) | 85% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 81% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 84% / 16% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 42% / 58% |
| Aluminij clean sheet | 10% |
| Celje clean sheet | 36% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Celje is the model's most likely outcome at
61%. Despite playing away, Celje edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. With expected goals of 3.3, this shapes as an open game (59% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Aluminij vs Celje — FAQ
Who will win Aluminij vs Celje?
Our statistical model makes Celje the most likely result at 61%. Full probabilities: Aluminij 18%, draw 21%, Celje 61%.
Will both teams score in Aluminij vs Celje?
The model gives a 56% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Aluminij vs Celje?
Expected goals are 1.01 for Aluminij and 2.29 for Celje — about 3.3 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Aluminij vs Celje?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-2 (10%). Double chance for Aluminij or draw is 34%.