Aluminium Arak vs Esteghlal Prediction & Preview
Premier League (Iran) · Sep 06, 2026 · kickoff 15:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
PREMIER LEAGUE (IRAN)
Aluminium Arak vs Esteghlal
Model pick: Esteghlal (44%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.7 – 1.12
Total goals: 1.8
Over 2.5: 37%
Both teams score: 44%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Aluminium Arak | Esteghlal |
|---|
| League position | #4 (8 pts) | #2 (10 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.0 / 1.0 | 0.5 / 0.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 50% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.4 / 0.8 | 1.8 / 0.2 |
*Aluminium Arak shown at home, Esteghlal shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Aluminium Arak — last 5
DWDWD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 44% of the time; 22% of home games go over 2.5.
Esteghlal — last 5
WWWWD
On the road: clean sheet 43% of the time; 35% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Aluminium Arak (home) | Esteghlal (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 0-2-0 in 2 (1.0 / 1.0 goals per game) | 1-1-0 in 2 (0.5 / 0.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 44% | 43% |
| Both teams scored | 37% | 44% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 22% | 35% |
| Top scorer | – | Jasir Asani (2) |
Premier League (Iran) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.01
Home wins: 38%
Draws: 35%
Away wins: 27%
Over 2.5: 33%
BTTS: 41%
Use these Premier League (Iran) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.7 vs 1.12):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-1 (18%) |
| Double chance — Aluminium Arak or draw (1X) | 54% |
| Double chance — Esteghlal or draw (X2) | 77% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 68% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 54% / 46% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 11% / 89% |
| Aluminium Arak clean sheet | 33% |
| Esteghlal clean sheet | 50% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Esteghlal is the model's most likely outcome at
44%. Despite playing away, Esteghlal edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (63% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Aluminium Arak vs Esteghlal — FAQ
Who will win Aluminium Arak vs Esteghlal?
Our statistical model makes Esteghlal the most likely result at 44%. Full probabilities: Aluminium Arak 24%, draw 32%, Esteghlal 44%.
Will both teams score in Aluminium Arak vs Esteghlal?
The model gives a 44% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Aluminium Arak vs Esteghlal?
Expected goals are 0.7 for Aluminium Arak and 1.12 for Esteghlal — about 1.8 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Aluminium Arak vs Esteghlal?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-1 (18%). Double chance for Aluminium Arak or draw is 54%.