Aluminium Arak vs Kheybar Khorramabad Prediction & Preview
Premier League (Iran) · Aug 28, 2026 · kickoff 15:45 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
PREMIER LEAGUE (IRAN)
Aluminium Arak vs Kheybar Khorramabad
Model pick: Aluminium Arak (37%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.93 – 0.75
Total goals: 1.7
Over 2.5: 35%
Both teams score: 43%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Aluminium Arak | Kheybar Khorramabad |
|---|
| League position | #4 (4 pts) | #8 (2 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 0.0 / 0.0 | 1.0 / 1.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.8 / 0.2 | 1.0 / 1.0 |
*Aluminium Arak shown at home, Kheybar Khorramabad shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Aluminium Arak — last 5
WDDWD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 44% of the time; 21% of home games go over 2.5.
Kheybar Khorramabad — last 5
WWLDD
On the road: clean sheet 26% of the time; 26% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Aluminium Arak (home) | Kheybar Khorramabad (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 0-1-0 in 1 (0.0 / 0.0 goals per game) | 0-1-0 in 1 (1.0 / 1.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 44% | 26% |
| Both teams scored | 36% | 37% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 21% | 26% |
Premier League (Iran) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.01
Home wins: 38%
Draws: 35%
Away wins: 27%
Over 2.5: 33%
BTTS: 42%
Use these Premier League (Iran) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.93 vs 0.75):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-0 (19%) |
| Double chance — Aluminium Arak or draw (1X) | 72% |
| Double chance — Kheybar Khorramabad or draw (X2) | 62% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 66% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 50% / 50% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 9% / 91% |
| Aluminium Arak clean sheet | 47% |
| Kheybar Khorramabad clean sheet | 39% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Aluminium Arak is the model's most likely outcome at
37%. Aluminium Arak are backed at home, where they average 0.9 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (65% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Aluminium Arak vs Kheybar Khorramabad — FAQ
Who will win Aluminium Arak vs Kheybar Khorramabad?
Our statistical model makes Aluminium Arak the most likely result at 37%. Full probabilities: Aluminium Arak 37%, draw 34%, Kheybar Khorramabad 29%.
Will both teams score in Aluminium Arak vs Kheybar Khorramabad?
The model gives a 43% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Aluminium Arak vs Kheybar Khorramabad?
Expected goals are 0.93 for Aluminium Arak and 0.75 for Kheybar Khorramabad — about 1.7 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Aluminium Arak vs Kheybar Khorramabad?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-0 (19%). Double chance for Aluminium Arak or draw is 72%.