América de Cali vs Alianza Petrolera Prediction & Preview
Primera Division (Colombia) · Sep 03, 2026 · kickoff 23:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
PRIMERA DIVISION (COLOMBIA)
América de Cali vs Alianza Petrolera
Model pick: América de Cali (59%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.75 – 0.67
Total goals: 2.4
Over 2.5: 47%
Both teams score: 48%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| América de Cali | Alianza Petrolera |
|---|
| League position | #6 (34 pts) | #17 (17 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.6 / 0.4 | 0.8 / 1.4 |
*América de Cali shown at home, Alianza Petrolera shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
América de Cali — last 5
WWWDW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 45% of the time; 41% of home games go over 2.5.
Alianza Petrolera — last 5
DLLDL
On the road: clean sheet 21% of the time; 39% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | América de Cali (home) | Alianza Petrolera (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 45% | 21% |
| Both teams scored | 44% | 48% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41% | 39% |
| Top scorer | Yeison Guzman (8) | Jesus Munoz (3) |
Primera Division (Colombia) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.26
Home wins: 46%
Draws: 30%
Away wins: 24%
Over 2.5: 40%
BTTS: 47%
Use these Primera Division (Colombia) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.75 vs 0.67):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (16%) |
| Double chance — América de Cali or draw (1X) | 86% |
| Double chance — Alianza Petrolera or draw (X2) | 37% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 77% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 70% / 30% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 23% / 77% |
| América de Cali clean sheet | 51% |
| Alianza Petrolera clean sheet | 17% |
🎯 Our Verdict
América de Cali is the model's most likely outcome at
59%. América de Cali are backed at home, where they average 1.5 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (53% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ América de Cali vs Alianza Petrolera — FAQ
Who will win América de Cali vs Alianza Petrolera?
Our statistical model makes América de Cali the most likely result at 59%. Full probabilities: América de Cali 59%, draw 25%, Alianza Petrolera 16%.
Will both teams score in América de Cali vs Alianza Petrolera?
The model gives a 48% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in América de Cali vs Alianza Petrolera?
Expected goals are 1.75 for América de Cali and 0.67 for Alianza Petrolera — about 2.4 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in América de Cali vs Alianza Petrolera?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (16%). Double chance for América de Cali or draw is 86%.